New Deal Democrats Weekly Indicators Summation May 4- 8

 – by New Deal democrat

My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha.

Surprisingly, most of the data is almost relentlessly positive. In particular, those things most tied up with AI — corporate profits, stock prices, and downstream consumer spending — are particularly strong. Also, American energy companies are making windfall profits from the closure of the Persian Gulf, which makes oil sourced elsewhere rise sharply in price.  

• All economic timeframes remain positive, with long leading indicators buoyed by strong bond spreads and surging corporate profits.

• Short leading indicators are stable, highlighted by exceptionally positive initial jobless claims and record stock price highs, though narrow market leadership is a concern.

• Manufacturing indicators have rebounded, but skyrocketing commodity prices likely reflect supply shortages, posing significant downside risk.

• Coincident indicators show robust consumer spending and discretionary activity, yet tax withholding hovers just above neutral, awaiting further inflation data.

In fact, consumer spending as measured by Redbook, has actually gotten *more positive* YoY in the past few months!

“AI Is Powering Corporate Profits, Stock Prices, And Consumer Spending”