Trump Effects Showing Up in the Economy
Worthwhile read if you have five minutes.
Trump Effect Starts to Show Up in Economy (The Wall Street Journal)
Kareem Talking Trump . . .
SUMMARY: A chaotic rollout of tariffs is starting to filter through to price tags on store shelves. An immigration crackdown is beginning to weigh on jobs growth, measured by federal surveys. Taken together, the impact of President Trump’s whirlwind six months back in office is showing up in the economy.
. . . The costs for core goods excluding autos rose at their fastest monthly pace in three years, according to UBS. Barring a recession or pullback in tariffs, analysts at the bank project that overall inflation won’t slow to April’s 2.3% rate between now and the end of 2027.
“Today’s report showed that tariffs are beginning to bite,” Omair Sharif, founder and president of Inflation Insights, wrote in a note to clients.
. . . Americans as of Sunday faced a 20.6% average effective tariff rate, according to the Yale Budget Lab, the highest since 1910.
The full effect of the tariffs might not be felt for months because of importers’ prior stockpiling, long shipping times, and Trump’s mercurial dealmaking. But the Yale Budget Lab projects resulting price increases could amount to the equivalent of a $2,800 hit in yearly household income.
MY TAKE: Trump bragged about his genius as a businessman, despite his reputation for failed businesses, unethical practices, and not paying his debts. TV stardom and politics have made his name valuable, and that’s his main product: franchising the use of his name. When it comes to real-life economics, his single goal is enriching his wealthy friends at the cost of non-wealthy households. Expert economists warned that these would be the results of his policies and, not surprisingly, they were right.
How does this happen to an educated, enlightened society? It starts with an aggressive campaign, not to prove the experts wrong by modifying policies, but by undermining the very idea of expertise. By constantly attacking education itself and those who have it, he’s made the average person feel that they are just as smart as the so-called experts. That’s like all the weekend athletes watching an NBA game and thinking to themselves, “I can do that.” (Hint: You can’t.)
It started with his campaign against Dr. Anthony Fauci, a dedicated and honorable immunologist who undoubtedly saved hundreds of thousands of lives while Trump, who was president when COVID-19 hit, admitted he lied to the public about the seriousness of the disease, thereby allowing it to spread and kill more people. Why didn’t we learn then, when experts said Trump’s initial statements were dangerous? Because the public doesn’t hear what it doesn’t want to be true.
Well, the dominoes have started to fall. What worries me is knowing that right before the 2026 midterm elections, Trump and his GOP stooges will pass some flashy legislation that will bribe the American people into forgetting all about how they ravaged the economy. Like burglars cleaning out your house of all valuables, then handing you twenty bucks to not tell the cops. Those voting for the GOP in 2026 are the kind who pocket the twenty bucks, sit in their empty homes, and grin at their good fortune.
This is not a sky-is-falling scenario, it’s merely the first signs of cracks before the cracks eventually become gaping potholes with large chunks of concrete lying in the middle of the street.
One fallen domino: “‘Devastating’ $4B Drop in Foreign Tourism to NYC Expected Under Trump.” Thanks to Trump’s tariffs and his threats to U.S. allies, many foreign tourists have stopped coming to America. New York City projects they’ll lose about $4 billion this year because of it. Foreign tourists make up 20% of visitors to NYC, but they account for 50% of all visitor spending. Complained one tour guide operator: “There is an absolute real-world decline in tourism and revenue due to Trump’s tariffs, and aggressive posting towards our friendly northern neighbors.” That’s a $4 billion loss to just one city.