Six Months In Polling

Briefly: Political polling of what the population in the United States could be thinking today? I know what I would br thinking of thinking of besides Tr__p’s first six months. Early on, I believe Tr__p was polling lower than other presidents in office for six months. Given the state of the economy as compared to Biden’s economy, Tr__mp should be polling better. His art of making tariff deals with other countries is likely hurting him more. Labor is geting nervous s are companies with his latest agreements. Domestic companies are being hurt more by his economic meanderings.

Next up?Emerson reports about the economy, immigration, and deportation have worsened.

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July 2025 National Poll: Six Months In, Trump’s Approval Split, Emerson. July 2025

Emerson College Polling survey of U.S. voters finds President Trump with a 46% job approval rating, and 47% disapproval. Since last month’s national poll, Trump’s approval and disapproval rating increased one percentage point.

“About six months into the second Trump administration, the president’s approval rating has stabilized in the mid-40s, while his disapproval has steadily increased about a point each month since the inauguration and now stands at 47%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.

“The president’s approval rating is strongest among men, at 53%, white voters, at 52%, and voters over 70, at 53%, whereas Trump’s approval is underwater among independent voters, at 38%, women, at 40%, Hispanics, at 38%, and Black voters, at 25%.”

Tracking questions of voter attitudes on whether they approve or disapprove of President Trump’s handling of key issues were asked. Approval is highest on immigration, with the public split 45% approve to 46% disapprove. Disapproval is highest on the economy (51% disapprove, 41% approve) and tariff policy (50% disapprove, 36% approve).

“Since the 100-day poll, the largest shifts have come from a 10-point increase in approval on handling of Ukraine-Russia, from 27% to 37%, and an eight-point increase on Israel-Hamas, from 30% to 38%, though both of these issues are still 10 and 8 points underwater for Trump,” Kimball said. 

Voters were also asked if they approve or disapprove of the Trump administration’s handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files: 51% disapprove, 16% approve, and 33% are neutral. A plurality of voters (42%) think Jeffrey Epstein was murdered, while 20% think he committed suicide. In the past five years, the share of voters who think he was murdered decreased four points, and the share of voters who believe he committed suicide decreased one point. 

Regarding the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, 39% think it will have a negative impact on their life, 33% think it will have a positive impact, and 9% think it will have no impact. Results are similar to voter perceptions of President Biden’s Build Back Better in a November 2021 Emerson poll, where 39% thought the bill would have a negative impact on them, and 34% positive.

US Economy

The top issue for 31% of voters is the economy, followed by threats to democracy (23%), immigration (15%), healthcare (9%), and crime (5%). 

“While the economy is the top issue among Republicans and independents, Democrats are increasingly focused on threats to democracy, with 37% listing it as their top issue,” Kimball said. “This is a 13-point increase from the start of Trump’s term, when 24% of Democrats listed threats to democracy as their top issue.”

Regarding voters’ financial state, 37% say they and their family finances are worse off than a year ago, 32% better off, and 31% about the same. Compared to the 100-day Emerson poll, the percentage of voters who say they are worse off decreased by seven points, 44% to 37%, better off increased eight points, 24% to 32%, while about the same decreased 33% to 31%.

Sixty-nine percent of voters think interest rates in the United States are too high, 6% think they are too low, and 25% think they are about right. 

2026 Midterm Elections

In the 2026 midterm election generic ballot test, 44% support the Democratic candidate for Congress, while 42% support the Republican. Fourteen percent are undecided. 

A majority of voters (62%) said they are extremely motivated to vote in next year’s election for Congress. Sixteen percent are very motivated, 14% somewhat motivated, 5% not too motivated, and 3% are not at all motivated.

2028 Hypothetical Matchups

A series of hypothetical matchups were tested in the national poll, based on top contenders in the June 2025 primary poll. In matchups against Vice President JD Vance, 43% would support former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg and 44% Vance, with 13% undecided. Against California Governor Gavin Newsom, 45% would support Vance, and 42% Newsom; 13% are undecided. Against Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, 44% support Vance and 41% Ocasio-Cortez, while 15% are undecided.