Putin’s empire imploding

Excellent recital on Russia by “Infidel at Infidel753“

Very often, those who understand an empire best are those who are subjugated by its power, or until recently were so.  A slave has a strong incentive to know the master’s whims and cruelties and strengths and weaknesses; he may well suffer greatly if he misjudges those things.  Thus it is that in Europe, it is Poland, Finland, and the three smaller Baltic states in between that best understand the Russian menace and have been the most uncompromising in their support for Ukraine’s struggle to remain independent.  Those countries came under Russian rule in the early nineteenth century (part of the Baltics even earlier) and, except for Finland, remained part of the Russian empire until 1989, with a brief period of independence between the two World Wars.  They know Russia.

So it is interesting that recently, defiance against Russian power has erupted in several places under current or recent Russian domination.

There was an early harbinger of this a month ago at a summit meeting of ex-Soviet states in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan.  Putin, in an apparent minor assertion of dominance, described Kazakhstan as a “Russian-speaking country” (technically true, since Russian was a mandatory subject in all Soviet schools and pretty much everybody older than thirty in all the ex-Soviet countries probably can speak it, although only about one-third of Kazakhstan’s population has it as their native language).  The Kazakh president reacted by delivering his speech in Kazakh, not in Russian, the language normally universally used at these summits.  Putin and the Russian delegation were visibly startled and had to grab for translation headsets to understand the speech.  It was a minor but unusual act of defiance.

That was an early sign.  Over the last week, however, the floodgates of resistance have opened.  In Georgia, another ex-Soviet nation ruled by Russia for centuries, protests against the pro-Russian government have intensified in spite of a brutal crackdown.  Popular feeling in Georgia has always favored close ties with democratic Europe rather than with authoritarian Russia.  But this intensifying rebellion suggests some confidence that Russia, after years of being bled white by the Ukraine war, no longer has the resources to spare for a major intervention in Georgia.  It’s a small country — fewer than four million people — but by now the Ukraine war has taught even Putin that invading a country he expects to be a pushover may mean a bloody and prolonged fight.

Meanwhile, in Syria, Sunni rebels have made major advances against the Asad regime, which is backed by Russia and Iran.  The rebels have captured Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, and are advancing west toward the coast and south toward Damascus, the capital.  On the coast is the port of Tartus, Russia’s only naval base on the Mediterranean.  If the Asad regime loses control of Tartus, that base will be lost to Russia, a strategic disaster.  If the regime falls, Russia will lose its only client state in the Middle East, albeit one shared with Iran.

The Iranian theocracy, despite being weakened by Israel’s pulverizing of its proxies in Lebanon and Gaza, has brought in Shiite militants from Iraq and elsewhere to help prop up Asad — but Russia has done nothing except a few bombing raids against Sunni-held territory.  Again, after years of bloody war in Ukraine, Russia no longer has the resources to intervene decisively.  Indeed, the Russian warships based at Tartus have apparently left the port as a precaution, and Russian soldiers are fleeing from Hama (the next large city in the rebels’ path) and even from Damascus itself.

At the same time, Europe — especially Poland, Scandinavia, and the other eastern states mentioned above — is strengthening its support for Ukraine, with an emphasis on investing in Ukraine’s defense industry to boost its ability to produce more weapons on its own.  Note too the wording of the joint statement, that “Ukraine must be able to prevail against Russia’s aggression” — that is, to win, not merely survive.  Putin is doubtless hoping that Trump’s rise to power in January will bring him some respite in Ukraine, but he may not get much of it.  And more importantly, the eastern Europeans evidently feel no fear in defying Russia more fiercely than ever, despite knowing that they may not have US backing much longer.

The peoples that know Russia best, it seems, now see it as an exhausted empire — prone to fail and even to collapse if resisted steadfastly.  They may well be right.

[Image at top:  anti-Russia demonstrators in Georgia carrying Georgian and EU flags]