Kamiddle Class Tax Cut Harris
I just heard an advertisement for Kamala Harris in which she said she would raise taxes on the rich and cut taxes for the middle class. I was pleased. I note the empirical fact that, in years when the income tax is constitutional yet the top marginal tax rate is below 69%, nonincumbent Democrats are elected president if and only if they promise to raise taxes on high incomes and cut taxes for the middle class.
I usually do not make predictions (I haven’t since 2004). I merely note the pattern
In 2016 I was convinced there would be an exception to the rule/stylized fact. Clinton proposed increasing taxes on the rich and a large number of tax cuts directed at families for whom they would do the most good. Like many people I expected her to get elected. I didn’t mind the fact that my slylized fact would become a stylized falsehood. Sadly it didn’t.
appendix on the data
Until February 3, 1913 the income tax was unconstitutional so Wilson 2012 and earlier cases are not exceptions. In 1932 the top income tax rate was 69% (you know it was not a multiple of 10 for a sneaky reason). in 1960 the top marginal tax rate was 91%,. In 1976 it was 70%. Clinton promised to raise taxes on high incomes (and did) and promised to cut middle class taxes (and broke the promise). Obama promised to raise taxes on high incomes and did and promised $1000 for 95% of working US families. IN the event he only delivered $800. Biden Promised to raise taxes on high incomes and to give families $2000 between the Manchin bipartisan stimulus ($600) and the American Rescue Plan’s $1400 the $2000 were delivered.
Mondale promised higher taxes on high incomes and the same taxes on incomes under $30,000 (roughly median income then). He was hammered. Dukakis promised improved tax enforcement and didn’t promise tax cuts. He lost. Gore promised a lockbox. He lost. Kerry ??? I don’t remember and he lost in 2004 (the last time I made a prediction). He lost. Clinton promised many well designed tax credits aimiing for optimal policy. She lost.
Harris made me worry a bit that my rule would fail and worry a whole lot that it wouldn’t. But now she will fit the pattern if she wins.
I stress that I am not making a prediction.
Robert:
This is one of the strangest elections I have ever experienced. We get mail-in ballots so we can investigate the locals who are running. We have made up our minds back when it ran in 2016. No vote for the golden boy Donnie.
I was living in one of the states where a minority of voters disliked either candidate and voted for Disney characters, the family cat or dog or hamster, their grandmother, etc. We were one of three states which could be influenced by stupidity Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin dissatisfied voters put their worst nightmare in office. They really showed us, didn’t they!
We are faced with a lot of propaganda about inflation causing issue this last go-around. It is causing a lot of hurt amongst people. They seem to forget what occurred in 2008-2010 when far less aid was meaded out to us. Yes, there was higher prices. I do not remember the Gov putting higher prices on smaller packaging, eggs, milk, food, etc. Companies are very adroit at playing the game. Don’t remember a shortage of oil and the resulting gasoline either. Seemed like we were doing quite well during and after the pandemic.
Maybe that old man who has trouble thinking, walking, and talking should have let them and us suffer a bit so we would have a good reason to oust him. Trump the Megalodon is going to be troublesome. I thought megalodons went extinct? Evidently one surfaced again.
And there are enough voters for it to feed upon. The waters will get warm again, The Megalodon will again run out of food to feed upon as his voters wise up or go extinct too.
Harris should raise taxes on the upper 10 percent. She could leave the taxes along for the other 80% and the upper 20% would pay for it. The upper 10% would revert back to what it was and the next 10% would see some adjustment upward. Just a thought in passing.
Much Appreciate your efforts here at Angry Bear. How about that Fed Rate Cut? Got an opinion to offer up to the crowd? They may not answer you, I know they read you though.
Bill