Open thread and QOTD
From a comment thread over at jabberwocking.com:
“For a party that’s always on suicide watch according to the pollsters, Democrats sure have been winning a lot of elections these past six years.”
“For a party that’s always on suicide watch according to the pollsters, Democrats sure have been winning a lot of elections these past six years.”
Dems should send a case of Heinz’s finest to Justice Alito.
How Abortion Lifted Democrats, and More Takeaways From Tuesday’s Elections
NY Times – Nov 8
President Biden is unpopular, but the winning streak for his party and its policies has been extended through another election night.
(The NY Times has been asserting for a year or more that ‘Biden is unpopular’ but has not been suggesting alternativ candidates. Other than Gavin Newsom maybe?)
Could a Prominent Democrat Really Challenge Biden? It’s Unlikely, at This Point.
NY Times – Nov 6
Worried Democrats have thrown out the names of popular governors and senators as possible alternatives to the president. But such a challenge appears improbable for a host of reasons.
(I am & will continue to support Biden for re-election in 2024.)
Gavin Newsom’s not-so-hidden presidential ambitions
Deseret News – Nov 5
The calculus is simple. Even if Biden is not going to run, to say so would make him a lame duck.
Fred, what/who do you think is the push behind this trying to get rid of Biden? Are the Cables, NYT, et al, wanting to write the script? As Heather says, he gets a lot done for someone a million years old.
Maybe they are just worried that we are headed for a repeat of 2016.
I think Biden deserves a lot more credit than he has received.
Could it be that he really tries (too hard?) to be a centrist.
Obama never did that. He just let people decide for themselves.
Ken:
Good Idea
Pickles, or ketchup?
The latter replaced the former on the Heinz logo some months back.
Hmmm. Dobbs with Pickle or Dobbs with ketchup? Hadn’t even thought of pickles.
I like both. It seems to run in the family.
@Ken,
Dobbs has apparently put the GOP in quite a pickle.
In this instance, it’s Dobbs the Supreme Court ruling that irks yoiu, not Dobbs yours truly. I’ll try to remember that.
Yugo buyers were only offered ketchup. Maybe the Yugo dealers should have offered pickles, ketchup, or both. Having no idea as to Justice Alito’s tastes, seems only fair to offer him the choice of either or both.
Fred
Have not looked at the logo. Clausen’s uncooked pickles are superior and were a division of Oscar Mayer when I was there and before Kraft sucked both of them up.
Heinz just seems to have de-emphasized pickles and is putting the focus on their ketchup.
Personally, for pickles I much prefer Vlasic, the dill variety.
The End of Panda Diplomacy?
NY Times – Nov 8
The giant pandas have left Washington. Some fans find it unbearable.
Say’s open thread right there at the top …
Orcas sink yacht in Strait of Gibraltar
It’s fun to make fun of this but seriously, this is a radical departure from studied behavior. It’s almost as if they’ve short-circuited. Be interesting to see if this translates out to the other aquatic mammals, or their land-bound cousins. Reminds me of a story I read years ago ~ like in the sixties ~ about people just flipping their wigs; simple-minded, in the end they were short-circuiting over their inability to handle subconscious prescient knowledge of our impending doom, like dogs and earthquakes. Something about a “Jackpot”
They’re smart enough to know something is wrong with their environment …
Interesting. Orcas attack boats so far. Nature turning against mankind.
Old fire-fighters will tell you fire has a mind of its’ own. Many have noticed wildfires burn houses now, leaves the trees. Whole neighborhoods, whole towns look like the volcano … and those Pondos ~ Ponderosa Pines ~ are still standing; little scorched around the butt but green up top
Why wouldn’t nature turn against us … ?
NPR –
NY Times – Nov 7
Atlantic orcas ‘learning from adults’ to target boats
BBC – August 2
The neigh-sayers always find some horse-hockey to push back at what is readily apparent and maintain their position at the apex of the information pile
It all began, researchers are coming to believe, when White Gladis encountered a fishing boat
[She] suffered a “critical moment of agony” — a collision with a boat or entrapment during illegal fishing — that flipped a behavioral switch. “That traumatized orca is the one that started this behavior of physical contact with the boat.”
Orcas have attacked and sunk a third boat off the Iberian coast of Europe, and experts now believe the behavior is being copied by the rest of the population.
Three orcas (Orcinus orca), also known as killer whales, struck the yacht on the night of May 4 in the Strait of Gibraltar, off the coast of Spain, and pierced the rudder. “There were two smaller and one larger orca,” skipper Werner Schaufelberger told the German publication Yacht. “The little ones shook the rudder at the back while the big one repeatedly backed up and rammed the ship with full force from the side.”
It appears that once White Gladis decided enough was enough, her rage and her response began to diffuse into the local orca society–if not necessarily by formal instruction
“We do not interpret that the orcas are teaching the young, although the behavior has spread to the young vertically, simply by imitation, and later horizontally among them, because they consider it something important in their lives”
?? Robert Heinlein. Year of the Jackpot. 1956
That’s it! Went hunting through the barn last night, found it in an old anthology, The Menace from Earth. As timely as I remember …
Maybe because the GOP are fighting like cornered rats to save their party from extinction, the Dems figure they may be facing extinction also, from annihilation by GOP kamikazes. Look, democracy is in peril all over.
Gotta wonder about the methodology of those polls. The fact that they seem to be consistently wrong lately really ought to induce some explanations.
@Jack,
I don’t know that the polls are “wrong.” What’s been wrong has been the predictions that people have made based on the polls.
Is reporting on polls news?
Joel:
I see Rhode Island elected Daniel McCaffery to the state Supreme Court. Daniel McCaffery supports abortion rights. Former Biden staffer Gabe Amo who emphasized his experience in the Biden White House, won an open seat in the House of Representatives to become Rhode Island’s first Black member of Congress. A person who admits he worked with Biden goes to Congress? Maybe some people recognize what Biden did?
Even more happened in other states such as Ohio, Virginia, and Pennslyvania.
@Bill,
RI is a bright blue state. Amo crushed his opponent. He didn’t need our votes, although he got them.
It should be noted that, inclusive of early voting, the turnout in RI was only 17%, pretty pathetic.
Ouch on the turnout!
Rhode Island is so heavily Dem that people don’t feel any great need to turn out for primary elections. It happens here in MA often enuf also.
@Fred,
This wasn’t a primary election. Amo won the seat.
And this wasn’t even a primary. How about that!
Democrat Gabe Amo elected to Congress
AP – Nov 7
I’ve seen a lot of criticism of their demographics given the behavior of people with telephones (e.g. not answering unknown caller ID’s.). Some analysts suggest the results tend to be heavily weighted towards older white people.
@Jack,
That may still be the case for some pollers, but not for many others. The landline issue has been known for a couple of decades.
And predictions based on polls have been spotty at best for a couple of decades. It’s maybe just post hoc ergo propter hoc but there might also be some causation between the data and the projections from it. Of course, these polls are so far out from the election date that they are probably of minimal use.
@Jack,
Polls are nowcasts, not forecasts.
If the polls are not forecasts, what’s their purpose? At a minimum, they appear to suggest that if the nowcast isn’t addressed, it will shape the future. Therefore, if they are inaccurate, they are misleading.
@Jack,
If a poll doesn’t predict the future, that doesn’t make it inaccurate. Polls are nowcasts, not forecasts.
Inaccuracy arises when someone makes prophecies based on polls.
Joel:
Potentially many people take the nowcasts as a forecast. Intermingled in their belief are the newscasters covering them as a forecast without explanation rather than a momentary look at the numbers.
Elsewhere in the news…
Ukraine. Israel. Can America Support Two Wars and Still Handle China?
NY Times – Nov 9
Elsewhere in the news…
Ukraine. Israel. Can America Support Two Wars and Still Handle China?
NY Times – Nov 9
America’s long-promised pivot to Asia was finally gathering momentum — new security deals with the Philippines and India, expanded military exercises, and plans with allies to stay ahead of Chinese technology.
But the Middle East, like a vortex, has pulled Washington back in. And for America’s partners in the Indo-Pacific, many of which already worry that the United States is not moving fast enough to counter Beijing, the sudden focus on Gaza — with Pentagon task forces, ramped-up U.S. weapons deliveries to Israel and rushed visits to Middle Eastern capitals — feels like a loss, delaying progress on some of their most critical challenges.
“What concerns us most is the diversion of the U.S. military’s resources from East Asia to Europe, to the Middle East,” Akihisa Nagashima, a lawmaker and former national security adviser in Japan, said at a strategy forum in Sydney, Australia, last week. “We really hope that conflict is completely finished pretty soon.”
American military commanders have said that no equipment has left the Indo-Pacific. And two top cabinet officials, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III and Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken, will be crisscrossing Asia this week with messages of reassurance, making stops separately or together in India, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia.
Along the way, they most likely will hear a mix of views about Gaza, with India more supportive of Israel, Japan seeking a more balanced approach, and Indonesia, home of the world’s largest Muslim population, increasingly outraged by the thousands of civilians killed in the Israeli invasion that has followed Hamas’ assault on Israel. …
Haven’t been around here in a long time. Just stopped by to see how you’re all doing. I’m still beating the dead horse on the need to have an Independent review of Congressional rules. I asked AI what they thought and they seem to know a lot more than the folks steering the ship in D.C. AI said: They understand the need! They basically agree with my, “Rules of the Game” post.
On Joe’s age stuff, there is something weird going on. I love Joe and think he has done an unbelievable job under terrible circumstances. Unfortunately, in this era of alternative facts, the public just isn’t accepting the facts about Joe, and instead is dwelling on some alternative. If Trump stays in, Joe wins, because polls don’t matter, issues do; and, voters will vote for abortion rights, gun control and free & fair elections; even if they don’t like the candidate or think he’s too old.
But, if Trump drowns in his own cesspool, look out for Nikki Haley. She could turn the GOP around if MAGA collapses and steal (no pun intended) the POTUS prize.
If Joe were ever to pass the baton, my top picks for a “dynamic candidate” would be: Mitch Landrieu, Cory Booker, Eric Holder, Deval Patrick, Antony Blinken, or Sally Yates.
Y’ know, this age thing with Trump vs Biden is yet another example of the penchant that Trump & the GOP have for ‘projection’. Constant reminders of Biden’s age is a device to get around the reality that Trump is only a couple of years younger than Biden.
If age is a problem for Biden, it’s also a problem for Trump.
Return to authoritarian guv’mint under Trump V2.0 will be much more of a problem.
” . . . the reality that Trump is only a couple of years younger than Biden.
“If age is a problem for Biden, it’s also a problem for Trump.”
Exactly.
Trump Suffers Another Cognitive Failure During Rally
Donald Trump confuses North Korea with China during speech
Acyn – 2 hours ago
J.P.
Thank you for the drive-by. To get anything done by Congress such as you propose has been difficult. There is always the politics involved which makes Congress subservient out of loyalty to particular ideologies, beliefs, influence, etc. I do not think it will happen.
You are right, issues matter and what Biden has done during his first three years is above average. The economic programs he put in place rescued an economy which was poised for a 2008 crisis caused by Wall Street gambling. Instead, of collapsing for several years, the nation survived a pandemic and the economy is secure. In other words, if we could have 10 more like Joe Biden, the nation would be far better off. Fix the deficit? Retract the trump tax bill or allow it to phase out come 2025 for corporations especially and citizens. Why Corporations? In trumps tax break program passed under Reconciliation rules, Corporation continue to receive dispensation as written into that law. People pay and corporation get a pass as paid for by citizens. Two $trillion annually.
I want Biden again for the next four years. Too soon for me to think about replacements.
Just in …
Joe Manchin announced hehas is not going to run for re-election as WV Senator next year.
Is he going to run for something else? Maybe. Stay tuned…
@Fred,
What else would he run for?
Joel:
I believe as a No-Label Pres candidate.
He thinks he can primary President Joe
Failing that: No Labels
Jill Stein is planning on being on the Green Party ticket next year, according to the NY Times.
Seems to me that the No-Labels deal is just a way to put a third-party candidate on the ballot, to increase the chances (for the GOP) to get a no-majority situation in the Electoral College and throw the presidential selection into the House of Reps.
But the number of 3rd-party candidates is getting higher. Jill Stein & the Greens will probably be there, on the Left. Along with Joe Manchin, on the Center-Right.
@Fred,
Jill Stein is the Harold Stassen of the Green Party.
As for Manchin and no-labels, it’s important to recall that Manchin is from a red state, ergo he’s been drawing GOP voters for a long time. Not clear to me that he’ll take more votes from Biden than he will from Trump.
Manchin has been drawing GOP voters in WV for a looong time.
Now he’s expanding his horizons. He will no doubt also appeal to right-of-center Dems across the US.
Looking back a few years… (Politico, July 20, 2010)
West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin announced Tuesday morning that he would seek the seat held by the late Sen. Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.).
Launching his campaign to succeed Byrd, who represented West Virginia in Congress for 57 years and became the longest-serving member of Congress in U.S. history, Manchin said: “I would have loved nothing more than for Sen. Byrd to be here, to be able to work with him until the end.” …
Fred:
I just restored the first one. not sure why it was in trash.
Third-party presidential efforts are always harmful for many reasons.
When Teddy Roosevelt ran to get re-elected after Taft took over the presidency a 100 years+ ago, because TR disapproved of his protege Taft, the Electoral College got messed up, the end of the Progressive GOP era ended, Wilson got in, then the era of the Conservative GOP began, ending with Hoover & the Great Depression.
Eventually, we got hit again when George Bush Jr beat Al Gore, or when Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton. Third Parties were instrumental in this.
Third parties are VERY disruptive.
John Anderson, Who Ran Against Reagan and Carter in 1980
NY Times obit – Dec. 4, 2017
(He was the last 3rd party candidate I supported, and he may have helped Ronald Regan defeat Jimmy Carter. I realized then the danger of 3rd party candidates. Reagan was a precursor to Trump.)
(Even MA voted for Ronald Reagan.)
Wikipedia: On election day, Reagan won a plurality of 41.90% of the vote in the state to Carter’s 41.75%, with Anderson in third at 15.15%, giving Reagan a razor-thin margin of 0.1517%.
@Fred,
Anderson’s votes didn’t all come from Carter voters. Anderson was a Republican before he was an independent. He ran as a Republican in the North Carolina primaries. It was the only time in my life I voted for a Republican, just to get him on the ballot. I did vote for Anderson in 1980. I’ll never vote 3rd party again.
Trying to post here, about Manchin across the US. Not succeeding, alas.
J.P.
My friend Dan Crawford passed away earlier this year. It was a great loss to Angry Bear and too me. He was my friend, another I could not save.
Yeah, the Ohio vote gives me hope that there is still a thinking electorate out there capable of discerning right from wrong.
On the Congressional rules, as much as I admire the Founding Fathers, I do believe they screwed up when they gave Congress the ability to create its own rules. An innocent enough mistake, but when you think about it, you don’t let the sport teams make their own rules with the ability to change them based on whose winning or losing. I’m sure it would make for a dysfunctional, boring game. If you want functional, bipartisan, government that is responsive to the public desire (e.g. abortion, gun control, voting rights) you can’t have the two teams making their own rules and changing them when they want to. You need some kind of independent, public body or commission that is focused on good government; not politics to set the rules of the game.
C’mon; one guy can hold up all military appointments for 9 months. And, you can’t vote on something really important that the public wants, and most everyone agrees on, if a few on other side don’t like it. What do you expect? Most of the Congressional gridlock problems and the inability to address critical issues stems from self-imposed, politically twisted, existing Congressional rules.
So sorry to hear about Dan…
J.P.
“Tommy”-jeez is not x-military. Alabama is a military proud state. I am surprised Tommy-boy is still existing there and not taking supreme abuse. You would thing that after the Civil (at the latest), they (being Congress) would have wised-up and established a few rules minding the mentality and the practices of Senators and Representatives. At the very least you can not withhold an action unless you bring it to a vote or filibuster. Jimmy Stewart had too do so, why not in real life? Not kidding here. If it means that much, put the effort in to it.
In the past, they were considered honorable. That has changed. Ginrich took the House off the rails, McConnell can claim responsibility for Tommy.
Amen!
J.P.
Are you still writing? Angry Bear is always open (or what you make of it) to an occasional post from others. Kind of sidelined right now with my laptop being wiped clean and the standard OS restored. This hack went deep. Norton and other protecters was unable to fix it.
House Republicans Toil for a Spending Strategy With a Shutdown Close at Hand
NY Times – Nov 7
House Republicans Clash Over Spending Days Ahead of Shutdown Deadline
NY Times – about 4 hours ago
Palestinian Authority Open to Gaza Role if US Backs 2-State Solution
NY Times – just in
Such a deal!
Indeed. Presumably, DOA, alas.
Biden and Xi to Seek to Stabilize Relations in California Meeting
NY Times – just in
Taiwan, election interference and the war in the Middle East will be on the agenda, officials say. But the leaders will also look for ways to strengthen ties.
Bill, yes still writing, but not on any regular basis. I will keep AB in mind. My last major post was “Rules of the Game.” It’s been a little frustrating for me. I’m pretty much a government solutions guy and like to think about solutions to some of the complex governmental problems. It’s like the politics of the day has degenerated so far that it’s silly to suggest solutions when we have a government that is totally incapable of even considering solving problems. Instead, half of the legislature is wallowing the muck of autocracy; a scenario I never thought remotely possible. Unfortunately, my solutions generally require some sort of functioning governmental structure for implementation. I do post more regularly my frustrations and thoughts on X at: https://twitter.com/JPMcJefferson.
Johnson Pitches Bill to Avert Government Shutdown
NY Times – just in
The World Is Becoming More African
NY Times – Oct 28
US Bets on Small Nuclear Reactors to Help Fix a Huge Climate Problem
NY Times – Nov 12
The dream of reviving nuclear power in the U.S. rests on a new generation of smaller reactors meant to be easier to build. But major obstacles loom.