New Deal democrat’s Weekly Indicators for July 20 – 24

 My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha.

With the renewed warmaking in the Middle East, the price of oil and gas shot up, and interest rates across the board as well. It looks increasingly likely that the Fed will have to hike rates to fight inflation soon, maybe as early as next month.

• Long leading indicators show mixed signals, with bond yields and corporate profits positive but a pronounced bear steepening in the yield curve.

• Short leading indicators remain very positive, driven by strong stock prices, low jobless claims, and robust regional Fed manufacturing and services indexes.

• Oil and gas prices have turned negative due to Middle East tensions, but coincident indicators like consumer and restaurant spending continue to signal economic expansion.

• Recent changes are concentrated in long leading indicators, but overall high-frequency data does not yet suggest a downturn in the U.S. economy.