New Deal Democrat’s Weekly Indicators
Weekly Indicators for June 1 – 5 at Seeking Alpha
– by New Deal democrat
The large majority of the high frequency indicators remain positive. Interestingly, though, one of the early warning signals for credit tightening, the Chicago Fed’s Leverage Index, is now at a level that in the past has more often meant a recession was approaching within the next year than not.
- High-frequency weekly indicators remain broadly positive, signaling ongoing economic expansion with strong consumer spending and robust corporate profits.
- Long leading indicators are buoyed by positive term spreads and booming profits, but tightening leverage and a “bear steepener” in yields flag future recession risk.
- Short leading indicators show strength in manufacturing, low jobless claims, and record stock prices, though surging commodity prices pose a significant negative.
- Coincident indicators confirm resilient consumer demand, but elevated shipping indexes may reflect increased global risk rather than robust demand.
As always, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment as to the state of the economy, and reward me with a little lunch money for putting it all together in organized fashion for you.