Estimated GDP Growth 1st Qtr 2026
A preliminary estimate of GDP growth in the first quarter 2026. US economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.0% in Q1 2026, up from 0.5% in the previous quarter. Growth was below the market expectations of 2.3%, Consumer spending (accounts for roughly two-thirds of economic activity) rose at a slower pace of 1.6% in Q1. This follows a 1.9% increase in Q4, supported by demand for services.
GDP (Advance Estimate), 1st Quarter 2026
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the first quarter of 2026 (January, February, and March), according to the advance estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2025, real GDP increased 0.5 percent.
The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the first quarter were investment, exports, consumer spending, and government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, also increased. For more information, refer to the “Technical Notes” below.
Compared to the fourth quarter of 2025, the acceleration in real GDP in the first quarter of 2026 reflected upturns in government spending and exports, and an acceleration in investment that were partly offset by a deceleration in consumer spending. Imports turned up.
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 2.5 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.6 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 3.7 percent in the fourth quarter. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 4.5 percent, compared with an increase of 2.9 percent, and the PCE price index excluding food and energy increased 4.3 percent, compared with an increase of 2.7 percent.
Definitions, statistical conventions, updates to GDP, and more information about national statistics can be found “additional information.”