Will Iran go nuclear?
Until now, the Islamic Republic of Iran has eschewed the manufacture of nuclear weapons, ostensibly based on a fatwa by Ayatollah Ali Khameni. Since Khameni’s assassination by Israel and his replacement by his son, it’s not clear that Iran will continue to observe that fatwa.
“What gives Khamenei’s death a particular doctrinal significance is that he had, over more than two decades, publicly framed weapons of mass destruction—including nuclear and chemical weapons—as contrary to Islam. If that position represented a genuine religious constraint rather than mere diplomatic rhetoric, then his death may have removed more than a leader: it may have weakened the doctrinal restraint that helped keep Iran a threshold nuclear state.”
The elective war on Iran by the US and Israel has underscored the importance of the North Korean nuclear breakout. I’d be very surprised if Iran doesn’t have a nuclear weapon in the next couple of years. Trump, Netanyahu, Saudi Arabia and the UAW would be to blame.
Iran and nukes
“What gives Khamenei’s death a particular doctrinal significance is that he had, over more than two decades, publicly framed weapons of mass destruction—including nuclear and chemical weapons—as contrary to Islam. If that position represented a genuine religious constraint rather than mere diplomatic rhetoric, then his death may have removed more than a leader: it may have weakened the doctrinal restraint that helped keep Iran a threshold nuclear state.”
The elective war on Iran by the US and Israel has underscored the importance of the North Korean nuclear breakout. I’d be very surprised if Iran doesn’t have a nuclear weapon in the next couple of years. Trump, Netanyahu, Saudi Arabia and the UAW would be to blame.
Iran and nukes
My position for 20 years has been that Iran won’t develop a nuke because they don’t need one. They have the Strait of Hormuz and all of Persian Gulf oil and gas production within their sights. We’re only just beginning to see what an effective deterrence that is, or rather, should have been appreciated by reasonable leaders in Israel and the US.
Also, what would Iran target if they did have a nuke? Tel Aviv? 7 million Jews? There is roughly the same number of Palestinians in the area controlled by Israel. Plus another 20 Million Muslims in nearby Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria. I seriously doubt that Iran would make an attack that could harm so many Muslims. And if they chose to, they could always have an alternative–attack Dimona on a day when the winds are blowing in from the Negev…
John:
It is more a deterrent. It sets themselves on the same playing field as the other nations who have them. The straits are important as is oil. There are other ways to move oil and there will increase capacity of them.
The best approach by the US was not to cause them to believe they are threatened. With this Pres, his threats are common
way of diplomacyalternative to diplomacy.@Bill,
“. . . threats are commont way of diplomacy.”
I think you mean a common alternative to diplomacy.
@John,
“Leading AIs from OpenAI, Anthropic and Google opted to use nuclear weapons in simulated war games in 95 per cent of cases”
AIs can’t stop recommending nuclear strikes in war game simulations