Just the Facts Consumer Price (CPI) Report

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over 12 months, all items index increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose 0.2 percent in January and was the largest factor in the “all items” monthly increase. The food index increased 0.2 percent over the month as did the food at home index, while the food away from home index rose 0.1 percent. These increases were partially offset by the index for energy, which fell 1.5 percent in January.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in January. Indexes increasing over the month include airline fares, personal care, recreation, medical care, and communication. The indexes for used cars and trucks, household furnishings and operations, and motor vehicle insurance were among the major indexes that decreased in January.

The all items index rose 2.4 percent for the 12 months ending January, after rising 2.7 percent for the 12 months ending December. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.5 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index decreased 0.1 percent for the 12 months ending January. The food index increased 2.9 percent over the last year.

Index for food rose 0.2 percent in January as did the index for food at home. Five of six major grocery store food group indexes increased in January. The index for cereals and bakery products rose 1.2 percent over the month. The meats, poultry, fish, and eggs index increased 0.2 percent in January. Both indexes for nonalcoholic beverages and for fruits and vegetables increased 0.1 percent over the month. Dairy and related products index rose 0.8 percent in January. In contrast, the index for other food at home decreased 0.3 percent in January.

Food away from home index rose 0.1 percent in January. Index for limited-service meals was up 0.3 percent. The index for full-service meals was unchanged over the month.

Over the last 12 months, the other food Index at home rose 2.1 percent. Nonalcoholic beverages index increased 4.5 percent over the same period. Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs index rose 2.2 percent. Cereals and bakery products index increased 3.1 percent over the 12 months ending in January. Fruits and vegetables index rose 0.8 percent over the year. In contrast, the index for dairy and related products
decreased 0.3 percent over the same period.

Food away from home index rose 4.0 percent over the last year. Index for full-service meals rose 4.7 percent and the index for limited-service meals rose 3.2 percent over the same period.

Energy

Index for energy decreased 1.5 percent in January. Gasoline index decreased 3.2 percent over the month. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices decreased 2.5 percent in January.) The index for electricity declined 0.1 percent in January. In contrast, the natural gas index increased 1.0 percent over the same period.

Index for energy decreased 0.1 percent over the past 12 months. Gasoline index fell 7.5 percent over this 12-month span. In contrast, the index for electricity increased 6.3 percent over the last 12 months. The index for natural gas rose 9.8 percent.

All items less food and energy

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in January. Shelter index increased 0.2 percent over the month. Index for owners’ equivalent rent increased 0.2 percent in January as did the index for rent. Lodging away from home index fell 0.1 percent over the month.

The index for airline fares increased 6.5 percent over the month. The personal care index rose 1.2 percent in January. The recreation index rose 0.5 percent. The index for communication rose 0.5 percent over the month and the index for apparel increased 0.3 percent. The new vehicles index rose 0.1 percent in January.

The medical care index increased 0.3 percent in January. Index for hospital services increased 0.9 percent over the month. Index for physicians’ services rose 0.3 percent. Prescription drugs index was unchanged in January.

The used cars and trucks index declined 1.8 percent in January while the household furnishings and operations index decreased 0.1 percent over the month. The index for motor vehicle insurance decreased 0.4 percent in January.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.5 percent over the past 12 months. The shelter index increased 3.0 percent over the last year. Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include medical care (+3.2 percent), household furnishings and operations (+3.9 percent), recreation (+2.5 percent), and personal care (+5.4 percent).

Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 2.4 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 325.252 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.4 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 2.2 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 317.942 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.3 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.

The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased 2.2 percent over the last 12 months. For the month, the index increased 0.4 percent on a not seasonally adjusted basis. (Note the indexes for the past 10 to 12 months are subject to revision.)

Some Detail Outside of the CPI Report

A less neutral Opinion . . .

Spending growth was fueled largely by high-income households. And the gap in spending growth between higher-income households and all others was at its largest since mid-2022. The so-called K-shaped economy appears to be hitting the middle class harder, said Bank of America Institute Senior Economist David Tinsley.

The K-shaped economy is one in which lower-income people are disproportionately hurt by inflation while high-income households fare better.

“It’s been there for a while, that gap, and we have noted it, but it’s getting wider. And I think that’s the concern really,” Tinsley said. “The economy for a long time was being driven by essentially higher- and middle-income households, but increasingly it’s being driven more and more by higher-income households, with the middle slowing. And that, in some respects, makes it a slightly more fragile picture, I would argue.”

Lower- and middle-income households’ spending growth ticked down to 0.3% and 1.0%, respectively.

“Consumer spending shows strong growth, but gap widens for middle class,” The National News Desk