Robotaxis to the rescue?
My junior high instrumental music teacher and band director was a spinster who never owned a car. She took taxis to get around our small town. At the time, it seemed odd. Now that I’m 70 years old, it looks like my future.
The promises of robotaxis (I’m looking at you, Elon) have so far outdistanced reality. I’m silently cheering for them, though. I know the day will come when my wife or daughter will demand the car keys, saying I’m no longer fit to drive.
There are several alternatives, of course. An e-bike. Lyft/Uber. Regular taxis. Public transportation. But Elon isn’t the only one making promises about robotaxis:
“Tesla, again on the downswing for its vehicle deliveries, is on the upswing, aiming to overhaul ride-hailing like it did the auto industry.
“Uber is wheeling and dealing, touting more than a dozen partnerships, with plans to operate robotaxi services in 10 markets by the end of 2026.
“Alphabet’s (GOOG, GOOGL) Waymo is seeking new funding at a valuation of at least $100 billion. And other players like Amazon’s Zoox have launched early rider programs before a making a bigger splash in the nascent market.”
One of the big unmet challenges for robotaxis is safety: not just the safety of passengers, but the safety of pedestrians and other cars on the road.
“On the weekend before Christmas, a widespread power outage in San Francisco took traffic lights across the city offline. Human drivers had to navigate the mess using their judgment, but autonomous vehicles, specifically Waymo’s vehicles, halted in the middle of roadways. Videos circulating on social media showed the vehicles blocking traffic at intersections with their hazard lights blinking.”
I’m betting that the kinks will eventually be ironed out, albeit with collateral damage being the lives and health of beta-testing victims. The march of progress will take a toll, but it is irresistible.
Will 2026 be the year of the robotaxi?
Waymo works really, really well in San Francisco. I’ve used it, and friends I have in SF say they use it about half the time. It’s very safe, with a far lower accident rate than regular taxis or cars, for that matter. The power outage problem is definitely a thing, because cars expect working traffic lights, and I believe route planning is done elsewhere than in the car (it updates in real time depending on traffic conditions…). Both issues should be easily overcome.
I certainly had my doubts, but one trip from BART to a restaurant in the Haight convinced me that this is the future.
@John,
“It’s very safe, with a far lower accident rate than regular taxis or cars, for that matter.”
When they do cause an accident, who is held liable for injuries or wrongful death?
That’s not an entirely settled question, but existing law gives some pretty strong indications; see, for example, Who Is Liable in a Self-Driving Car Crash?. Some other sites: Who Is Liable in a Self-Driving Car Crash? and Who Is Liable When a Self-Driving Taxi Causes an Accident?, the last two from law firms that, of course, have a financial interest in what they publish on their websites.
It’s not the Wild West by any means, but nor is it as clear as anyone would like it to be.
How do you prove the liability. You have opinion versus programming.
Everything is recorded, so it is pretty easy (in some sense of the phrase) to determine exactly what decisions the s/w made on the basis of exactly what inputs. If a jury determines that the s/w’s decision was reasonable given the inputs, and that the inputs were reasonably accurate reflections of the external world… Programming doesn’t really enter into it, the s/w itself is treated like a black box (exactly as the human mind is, for that matter).
@John,
So let’s say a jury determines the robotaxi was at fault due to negligence. Then what? The robotaxi goes to jail for manslaughter?
No, no, the manufacturer gets fined. Just like if the gas tank on my Pinto explodes and kills people due to a bad design, or https://electrek.co/2025/08/01/tesla-tsla-is-found-liable-in-fatal-autopilot-crash-has-to-pay-329-million/, or https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/tesla-autopilot-crash-trial-verdict-partly-liable-rcna222344, or https://insideevs.com/news/754841/waymo-traffic-violations-fines-2024/.
@John,
Guess it’s just a matter of time before some drunk driver appeals his prison time on the grounds that robotaxis only have to pay fines.