Déjà vu all over again
The definition of insanity is making the same mistake over and expecting a different outcome. By that definition, the Trump coup in Venezuela is insane.
Maduro was a corrupt and illegitimate ruler. And the same was true of Saddam Hussein in Iraq. Bush deposed Saddam, freeing Iraq from one nightmare but plunging it into another. The excuse in Iraq was phony charges of WMDs. The real reason was access to oil. Trump has deposed Maduro based on phony charges of drug manufacture and gang support. The real reason is access to oil.
Historian Juan Cole summarizes the five mistakes that Bush made in Iraq and that Trump is making in Venezuela:
“1. Violation of the UN Charter and the International laws of war
“The Bush administration attacked Iraq in 2003 without any foundation in international law. Iraq had not attacked the United States in the decade leading up to the American intervention. The UN Security Council, led by France, Russia and China, specifically declined to authorize the invasion. . . . Bush’s inability to secure significant support from any countries but the UK and Spain harmed his effort in Iraq and contributed to its failure.
“The Trump administration attacked Venezuela and abducted of dictator Nicolas Maduro without the slightest justification in international law. The UN Charter forbids war except under two circumstances, self-defense or the designation of a country as a danger to international order by the UN Security Council. Venezuela had not militarily attacked the US. The UNSC had not called for international action against Maduro.
“2. False pretexts.
“The Bush administration alleged that Saddam Hussein of Iraq had an active nuclear weapons program and was two years away from blowing up a nuke. Iraq had had a small nuclear program in the 1980s but it was never very successful. It was dismantled after the Gulf War by UN inspectors, who oversaw the documented destruction of all Iraq’s chemical and biological and nuclear weapons programs. The revelation, once the US had occupied Iraq, that there were no weapons of mass destruction (a propaganda term) in that country fatally damaged the legitimacy of the Bush project and made the administration a laughingstock.
“The Trump administration charged Maduro with smuggling fentanyl to the United States and with overtly deploying the alleged Tren de Aragua cartel inside the US against U.S. interests. Venezuela is not a source of fentanyl. Tren de Aragua was a small prison gang that engaged in some criminality on the outside. It was dismantled in 2019. It has no known significant presence in the United States and certainly isn’t a state instrument, if it could be said to exist at all.
“3. No Plan for the next Day
“In the Bush administration, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz . . . were convinced that the US could go into Iraq, decapitate the regime by killing or capturing Saddam Hussein, and withdraw within 6 months.
“The Trump administration appears to have had made no plans for the day after. Secretary of State Marco Rubio initially said that the operation was over once Maduro was abducted, implying that the Bolivarian government would remain in place and that Vice President Delcy Rodriguez would succeed Maduro. But the Venezuelan opposition suggested that Maduro’s opponent in the disputed 2024 election, Edmundo González, should take over. Trump himself said that the US would run Venezuela for some time.
“4. The Oil Factor.
“Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz told Congress in 2003 that Iraqi petroleum would pay for the US invasion of that country. The Bush wars actually cost $5.6 trillion by 2018, including projections of lifetime health care payments through the VA for the thousands of severely wounded veterans.
“President Trump spoke Saturday about his plans to have US petroleum majors reinvigorate the Venezuelan oil industry, which has been under US sanctions since 2017. Administration officials also maintained that Venezuelan petroleum proceeds would pay for the US attack on that country.
“5. Under-estimation of polarization and potential for destabilization.
“The Bush administration . . . underestimated the polarization of Iraqi society. Some of the divisions were sectarian, between Sunnis and Shiites. Others were class-based. Thus, the urban poor mobilized behind fiery cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who formed the Mahdi Army militia that engaged in battles with the US Marines. Secular urban Sunnis and fundamentalist Sunnis from small towns formed some 60 major guerrilla groups that sniped at and set improvised explosive devices for US troops. Bush created 75% unemployment in Sunni areas while putting the former underclass, the Shiites, in power. By 2014 the extremist hyper-Sunni group ISIL was able to detach 40% of Iraqi territory from the country and to engage in massacres of Shiites . . . .
“Venezuela is an extremely polarized society . . . under Maduro poverty soared and some 8 million Venezuelans fled the country. Since Americans are trained not to analyze using social class and are encouraged to focus on personalities and horse races instead, they are at a disadvantage in understanding the social fissures in other societies. Maduro had shifted his political base from the poor to sections of the business classes, and while that meant that after the stolen 2024 election the barrios demonstrated against him just as did the upscale Caracas neighborhoods, his removal could reopen the question of division of society’s goods — a question that led to Chavez’s rise in the first place. Class conflict is real in Venezuela, and a political vacuum could unleash it.”
As psychoanalyst Theodor Reik wrote: “It has been said that history repeats itself. This is perhaps not quite correct; it merely rhymes.”
Mistakes in Iraq and Venezuela
Maduro was a corrupt and illegitimate ruler. And the same was true of Saddam Hussein in Iraq. Bush deposed Saddam, freeing Iraq from one nightmare but plunging it into another. The excuse in Iraq was phony charges of WMDs. The real reason was access to oil. Trump has deposed Maduro based on phony charges of drug manufacture and gang support. The real reason is access to oil.
Historian Juan Cole summarizes the five mistakes that Bush made in Iraq and that Trump is making in Venezuela:
“1. Violation of the UN Charter and the International laws of war
“The Bush administration attacked Iraq in 2003 without any foundation in international law. Iraq had not attacked the United States in the decade leading up to the American intervention. The UN Security Council, led by France, Russia and China, specifically declined to authorize the invasion. . . . Bush’s inability to secure significant support from any countries but the UK and Spain harmed his effort in Iraq and contributed to its failure.
“The Trump administration attacked Venezuela and abducted of dictator Nicolas Maduro without the slightest justification in international law. The UN Charter forbids war except under two circumstances, self-defense or the designation of a country as a danger to international order by the UN Security Council. Venezuela had not militarily attacked the US. The UNSC had not called for international action against Maduro.
“2. False pretexts.
“The Bush administration alleged that Saddam Hussein of Iraq had an active nuclear weapons program and was two years away from blowing up a nuke. Iraq had had a small nuclear program in the 1980s but it was never very successful. It was dismantled after the Gulf War by UN inspectors, who oversaw the documented destruction of all Iraq’s chemical and biological and nuclear weapons programs. The revelation, once the US had occupied Iraq, that there were no weapons of mass destruction (a propaganda term) in that country fatally damaged the legitimacy of the Bush project and made the administration a laughingstock.
“The Trump administration charged Maduro with smuggling fentanyl to the United States and with overtly deploying the alleged Tren de Aragua cartel inside the US against U.S. interests. Venezuela is not a source of fentanyl. Tren de Aragua was a small prison gang that engaged in some criminality on the outside. It was dismantled in 2019. It has no known significant presence in the United States and certainly isn’t a state instrument, if it could be said to exist at all.
“3. No Plan for the next Day
“In the Bush administration, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz . . . were convinced that the US could go into Iraq, decapitate the regime by killing or capturing Saddam Hussein, and withdraw within 6 months.
“The Trump administration appears to have had made no plans for the day after. Secretary of State Marco Rubio initially said that the operation was over once Maduro was abducted, implying that the Bolivarian government would remain in place and that Vice President Delcy Rodriguez would succeed Maduro. But the Venezuelan opposition suggested that Maduro’s opponent in the disputed 2024 election, Edmundo González, should take over. Trump himself said that the US would run Venezuela for some time.
“4. The Oil Factor.
“Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz told Congress in 2003 that Iraqi petroleum would pay for the US invasion of that country. The Bush wars actually cost $5.6 trillion by 2018, including projections of lifetime health care payments through the VA for the thousands of severely wounded veterans.
“President Trump spoke Saturday about his plans to have US petroleum majors reinvigorate the Venezuelan oil industry, which has been under US sanctions since 2017. Administration officials also maintained that Venezuelan petroleum proceeds would pay for the US attack on that country.
“5. Under-estimation of polarization and potential for destabilization.
“The Bush administration . . . underestimated the polarization of Iraqi society. Some of the divisions were sectarian, between Sunnis and Shiites. Others were class-based. Thus, the urban poor mobilized behind fiery cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who formed the Mahdi Army militia that engaged in battles with the US Marines. Secular urban Sunnis and fundamentalist Sunnis from small towns formed some 60 major guerrilla groups that sniped at and set improvised explosive devices for US troops. Bush created 75% unemployment in Sunni areas while putting the former underclass, the Shiites, in power. By 2014 the extremist hyper-Sunni group ISIL was able to detach 40% of Iraqi territory from the country and to engage in massacres of Shiites . . . .
“Venezuela is an extremely polarized society . . . under Maduro poverty soared and some 8 million Venezuelans fled the country. Since Americans are trained not to analyze using social class and are encouraged to focus on personalities and horse races instead, they are at a disadvantage in understanding the social fissures in other societies. Maduro had shifted his political base from the poor to sections of the business classes, and while that meant that after the stolen 2024 election the barrios demonstrated against him just as did the upscale Caracas neighborhoods, his removal could reopen the question of division of society’s goods — a question that led to Chavez’s rise in the first place. Class conflict is real in Venezuela, and a political vacuum could unleash it.”
As psychoanalyst Theodor Reik wrote: “It has been said that history repeats itself. This is perhaps not quite correct; it merely rhymes.”
Mistakes in Iraq and Venezuela
Just because Trump’s real reason for invading is primarily none of the above does not make the Trumped up charges against Maduro phony. It is impossible to read these tea leaves without a comprehensive understanding of each players positions on global big oil versus US domestic fracking as well as the various crypto-currencies. My admittedly superficial insight places Trump outside of the Koch big oil cartel and closer to all the little domestic frackers. More importantly Venezuelan drug and sex traffickers are way heavier into bitcoin than WLF or $TRUMP.
@RC,
The charge of owning an automatic weapon is phony, full stop. There is nothing in American law that makes it illegal for a citizen of a foreign country to own an automatic weapon while in their own country.
@Joel,
I will give you that one of course, but I find it akin to adding charges of J-walking to charges against a murdered. Maduro was deep into cartel business.
@RC,
“Maduro was deep into cartel business.”
LOL! So was former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez. He got a Trump pardon. Let’s not pretend that there’s any legitimacy here. This isn’t about drugs or cartels. This is about dominance.
IOW, POTUS has insights into shorting assets that even the biggest of traders can only dream of.
Also worth noting that GHW Bush family wealth held substantial positions in big oil back in the day.
Joel:
Apparently, a bunch of oil tankers made it out of Venezuela during the night having turned their running lights off. Maybe US ships were not using radar? Also and with regard to Venezuela oil, it is the less desirable oil.
“In November, Venezuela produced an estimated 860,000 barrels per day, according to the latest oil market report from the International Energy Agency.
That is barely a third of what it was 10 years ago and accounts for less than 1% of world oil consumption.
The country’s oil reserves are made up of so-called “heavy, sour” oil. It is harder to refine, but useful for making diesel and asphalt. The US typically produces “light, sweet” oil used to make petrol.”
No drop in gasoline prices any time soon for the US.
While we were at it, we are threatening other countries as well. Dipsh*t Trump wants Greenland too. How Norway, Denmark, and Europe react to Trump’s and the United States aggression is going to be interesting.
I most definitely suggest not to travel outside of the United States any time soon. US Citizens will not be looked at kindly for some time to come. Much of the world looks upon us in a negative manner as it is due to Tru_p’s child-like behavior. Bully who will not stand up by himself. Calls upon the US to fight his intentionally provoked battles.
My son and family got back to the US from the Caribbean before Trump slammed the door shut on travel (update).
@Bill,
I don’t see why any US oil company would invest assets and personnel in rebuilding Venezuela oil production until the political/security conditions are settled. There are already in-country criminal elements and political organizations perfectly willing and able to sabotage any drilling and/or shipping facilities.
Joel:
You are more right than I am on this topic. And the other answer would be: Because Trump says to invest in Venezuela.
Bill, do you possibly mean Denmark where you mention Norway?
Eric:
I did mean both and I forgot Denmark. Traveling and using a small computer screen rather than a much larger one at home. Thank you.
Afghanistan’s Opium Business Boomed Under US Occupation https://www.vice.com/en/article/afghanistans-opium-business-boomed-under-us-occupation/
Southeast Asian drug production also boomed during the Vietnam War with complicity or indifference of US. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Politics_of_Heroin_in_Southeast_Asia
McCoy’s books documents the curious coexistence of the CIA with various drug organizations over the years, beginning in the 1940s.
During Iran Contra affair in the 1980s the US government funded traffickers (with complicity or indifference.) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIA_involvement_in_Contra_cocaine_trafficking
“Trump sparks outrage after pardoning convicted drug kingpin,” Orlando Hernandez, former President of Honduras.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-sparks-outrage-after-pardoning-convicted-drug-kingpin/ar-AA1RmlUc
“The DOJ stated last year that it was sentencing Hernández to 45 years in prison for conspiring “to facilitate the importation of an almost unfathomable 400 tons of cocaine to this country.” (Hernandez knew how to run the business! Maduro was a most a bit player.)
Déjà vu all over again?
@John,
You forgot Prohibition.