Important thought for the day: lessons from SuperNanny “about Caving”
– by New Deal democrat
From Avika M. Cohen, “Litigation Disaster tour guide”:
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Ppl need to understand what’s happening here.
The GOP response to the shutdown was: You’re gonna cave, or we’re going to hurt vulnerable people by shutting off SNAP. The Dems, unwilling to let that happen, caved. Having watched that, the GOP is now saying:
“Give us what we want on abortion or we’ll hurt people who need ACA subsidies.”
There is every reason to believe that the Dems will cave. And if they don’t, Republicans will run on:
“we put up a bill to extend the subsidies, the Dems filibustered it because they want to kill babies, they own the expiration”
Which will make vulnerable Dems even more likely to cave.
Thing is, when you teach a bully that they can get what they want by bullying, they don’t just stop. They go back to that well over and over again.
There are certain fights that you need to either never pick in the first place or be certain you’re willing to see all the way through. The shutdown was one of them.
How many clients have we had the “if you’re going to do this you need to be willing to see it through, because here’s what happens if you start it and then buckle, please factor that into your decision about whether you want to start” conversation with? We’re lucky to have so many who get it.
This was one of the constant lessons of SuperNanny. How often, following SuperNanny’s instructions, would the parents put a spoiled toddler to bed despite the child’s crying, and then after 15 or 20 minutes of continued shieking, mom (usually) couldn’t stand it any more, and run to the toddler’s bedroom door.
Sometimes SuperNanny would have to physically intervene to talk them out of it, because it was the worst thing they could do.
I think this is silly. There is zero chance that Dems will cave on abortion, an issue they totally own. Sure, some Republicans are stupid and don’t understand that they would be shooting the party in the head by cutting off SNAP benefits to 44 million people in an attempt to pressure Democrats, but most of them are not. Can you imagine the electoral bloodbath that would follow mass starvation coming to America as a result of this? It would be the end of the current Republican party, and 90% of them know it, regardless of what some guy on Bluesky might think.
The only way to stop a bully is bust them in the mouth
If you don’t, if you let ’em get away with, they won’t …
I think the timing was bad for the Democrats. The holiday season is ramping up. This is going to replay in late January. Valentine’s Day and President’s Day aren’t as fraught. One of the things to Republicans learned is not to give up. Just because a tactic failed doesn’t mean it can’t be used again and again. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn’t. No one bats 1000.
AB is really great. Between the posts and comments, AB readers are ahead of the curve most of the time. Nobody here is surprised at all that this filibuster had minimal leverage and that actually negotiating over something like a $350B to $400B commitment was going to entail some quite tough decisions getting it across the line. Now I don’t remember exactly where that was explained, but feel pretty certain it was right here at AB. Thanks!