Why Not Voting Makes a Difference
The 2024 Election Voting numbers are shown below. I did break down the votes for others so you could see them. A big factor in Trump winning was a smaller turnout in 2024 as compared to 2020. There was a slight increase in voting for others.
Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
In 2020, the total vote was 158,614,475. An ~ 3 million voters were lost in 2024 and considered to be non voters at 155 million. Another difference was ~50,000 increase in voting for others (see above) totally an ~3.1 million. The election was decided by non-voters plus a small increase for others. Voting for others and nonvoting when the difference in candidates is extreme does not play out well for the nation as a whole.
Hopefuly, we have House Representatives and Senators who come to their senses.
Kind of like “blowing yourself up and taking others with you.”
Joel–How about finding a battleground state where the change in 2024 vs. 2020 voter turnout changed the outcome? In non-battleground states voter turnout rates made absolutely no difference because the outcome was never in doubt.
This link shows the change in voter turnout for battleground states. Election results, 2024: Analysis of voter turnout in the 2024 general election – Ballotpedia
The biggest change was in Arizona, where turnout dropped 5%. But since Trump’s margin of victory was 5.5%, he still would have won, even if turnout had not dropped. 2024 Presidential Elections By State Margin of Victory | Fox News Elections
Most battleground states won by Trump actually experienced a slight rise in voter turnout.
On what basis would you assume that higher voter turnout would have tilted the outcome to Kamala?
John:
Do I sound like Joel??? He is a prof. I am not, I have been here almost 20 years. Joel has one year in and is a real asset to Angry Bear and myself.
The reference of Biden 2020 seems natural but doesn’t explain much. For example, the closest states that would have won for Harris were Pennsylvania + Michigan + Wisconsin. She ran ahead of Biden in Wisconsin and quite close in the other two. You can look it up, but Biden’s 2020 vote count in all three states would have lost in 2024. The net vote difference between Harris 2024 and Biden 2020 heavily driven by states Harris did win, like CA or IL, or her campaign did not truly contest (TX, FL). More people voting would have given different vote totals, but apart from that little can be said.
There was an analysis published on Daily Kos which showed that African American, Asian and Hispanic voters significantly underperformed non hispanic white voters in Georgia, North Carolina and Michigan and that if the turnout had been equal to non hispanic white voters and those voters had split the same as the voters who turned out, Harris would have won those states and the election. So it is not just overall turnout but who turns out and it raises questions about the motivation. Did GOP efforts to suppress minority voters have an effect? Did the sense that it makes no difference who is in office play a role?–Talk about FAFO–Was the Democratic ground game that weak? Was there a strong element of “I know Trump is a bad guy who I could never vote for but given the price of eggs, I am going to withhold my vote from the incumbent?–Or I am withholding my vote because of the genocide in Gaza? I do not know and it seems like nobody really does, but I think we have to recognize that approximately half the population has below average intelligence, there are more people who have no education beyond high school than have further education, and now I am talking like an old man, but I grew up thinking that I had various duties as a citizen including registering for the draft, paying taxes and VOTING. I do not get that sense about people under 60 today, and suspect it is because they did not have parents who were kids during the Great Depression and then saved the world from fascism in the 40’s. It actually gives me some hope that Trump is president because of ignorance and apathy rather than a majority of the country being deplorables who would trade their freedoms and well being to see everyone they hate get screwed.
Terrance:
Three million people did not vote. Their not voting put Trump in the presidency.
You need to show your work. Three million votes would have won Kamala the popular vote…merely a consolation prize.
However, some of the biggest drops in voter turnout were in states that went for Harris.
California -6.5%
New Jersey – 5%
Colorado – 4.5%
Illinois – 3.5%
New York – 3.2%
Massachusetts – 3.0%
Increasing voter turnout in these states would not have benefitted Harris at all.
Exactly in which states would have voter turnout at 2020 flipped the state to Harris? Why would you assume that the “missing” votes would have been cast for Kamala than those that were actually cast?
Just reviewed 2020 Biden votes versus 2024 Trump. Trump 2024 beats Biden 2020 in 7 of 7 battle grounds, exactly in line with him beating Harris. If people want to check the other 43 states + DC, you are welcome, but missing voters wrt 2020 do not seem to have played a role in the Presidential race. I’d suggest that maybe the OH and/or MT Senate seats and some House seats?
I estimated the numbers not voting for Harris to be a total of six million. The three million I said just did not vote. Another 3.5 million voted for others. Apparently, I underestimated the voting,
“Podhorzer’s recently published newsletter on how Trump “won” —Ke insists on those quotation marks — garnered lots of attention among Democratic insiders. In it, he explains that America didn’t “shift rightward” in 2024 but “couchward.” American voters’ “basic values or priorities” did not become more conservative. Democrats lost merely because turnout among “anti-MAGA” voters collapsed.”
Vox
Podhorzeer said the number is more like 15 million who sat this election out because they are pissed at Democrats. The link is in the above paragraph. You can go and read it. My estimate is low but still accurate in what it means. When you all whine, just know, you did this to yourself if you did not vote or voted for others.
The other issue is inflation as manufacturers (food, etc.) took advantage claiming their costs went up. They did not as much as they would have you believe. demand out stripping inventory does not increase cost. Itis an opportunity to rent take using increasing prices.
How Trump “Won” Michael Podhorzer
Bill–you missed the money quote: “Nearly all of [Podhoretz] post will be concerned with the national vote rather than the Electoral College, for one simple reason: in each of the last three elections, very small shifts in a couple of states would have changed the outcome. Therefore, we should wait until the voter files have been updated in the spring to avoid an irresponsible rush to judgment on what happened in the battleground states.”
The key to understanding what happened is in the battleground states. Turnout shifts in all the other states did not matter at all. I already told you which states had the most ‘couch potatoes.’ And they wee all states that Harris won big time. The ‘couch potatoes’ made no difference to the national outcome.
Another pretty good Podhoretz quote is consistent with what I’ve been arguing: “the life-threatening illness America is really struggling with: a billionaire-captured system that doesn’t work for most people, and justifiable disaffection and anger at this system. Americans are fed up, and people are perpetually in the mood to throw the bums out, whoever the bums in charge are. But with only two parties to realistically choose from – plus a democratically illegitimate Electoral College that makes most Americans’ presidential votes all but irrelevant – all of these “change elections” add up to little more than a seesaw that most Americans don’t want to ride in the first place.”
James Carville in a NYT piece today argues that Democrats should sit on their hands and do nothing. Soon enough the time will come when voters will want to throw the bums out again. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/25/opinion/democrats-trump-congress.html
Unfortunately constantly throwing the bums out only lets one set of bums alternate with the other. The only way to really register voter discontent is–you guessed it–to vote third party.
John:
If people do not vote, anything else does not matter. Millions did not vote. If they did vote, Trump would have lost.