We have no idea how bad things will get, but they could get very, very bad

Let’s do some pessimism.

Trump has already made it clear that he does not recognize any legal limits on his behavior – no constitutional limits, and no statutory limits.  This is reflected in his effort to halt broad swaths of federal spending for 90 days (which violates both the constitution and the Impoundment Control Act – and for now has apparently been put on hold by a court), the recent purge at DOJ, his refusal to enforce the valid law banning Tiktok, his repudiation of birthright citizenship, etc. 

If the courts refuse to hold Trump to account, we will be at his mercy for the next 4 years.

Trump did not violate the constitution with his pardons of violent January 6 defendants, but he did encourage violent supporters to intimidate his opponents.  Think about how this might play out at a polling place near you.  Will we see Oath Keepers and Proud Boys as poll watchers in 2026?

There are other reasons to worry.  Trump is clearly intent on revenge against people who prosecuted him.  Even worse, he is seeking to punish those who criticize him.  This is a clear threat to free and fair elections.  Republicans in Congress clearly have no interest in restraining Trump.  (James Madison was a genius, but he was wrong about many things, including the idea that the ambitions of officeholders would lead them to check efforts by those in other branches of government to usurp power.  In fact, members of Congress are often happy to cede their constitutional powers – and the risk of electoral accountability – to the executive branch.) 

Even if we manage to hold reasonably fair elections in 2026 and 2028, the danger will not be behind us.  We do not know what the Republican party will look like after Trump passes from the scene, but it seems reasonable to worry that Vance, Cruz, or Hawley would be more than willing to use Trump’s authoritarian tactics.  If the economy does well under Trump, which may well happen even though he is an idiot, many Americans will assume he was successful because of his strongman antics, not despite them.  This will only encourage imitators. 

The Democrats have no clear strategy for becoming a majority party.  If they did, all of this would be less worrying.  But their main strategy seems to be to hope Trump shoots himself in the foot with tariffs or unpopular spending cuts or deficit fueled inflation or excessive cruelty to migrants, etc.  This could happen, but there are no guarantees.  In the meantime, the standing of the Democrats with the electorate and the geographic distribution of their support (relevant for the electoral college and Senate) has probably worsened since 2016 and 2020. 

Finally, corporate leaders have no appetite for resistance. Whether they are traditional hospitality magnates or digital executives managing the best online slots and virtual sportsbooks, these industry heads seem focused entirely on currying favor with Trump. Even worse, tech billionaires – who also happen to control a substantial segment of the media – seem to have bought into the radical anti-government, anti-liberal world view that has been percolating in and around right-wing think tanks for decades (see Yarvin, Andreessen, me). To the extent that our tech overlords have internalized hysterical claims about the dangers of progressivism, wokeism, and other left wing maladies, they are likely to believe that acquiescing to Trump’s constitutional violations are a necessary price to pay to avoid disaster.

None of this means that American democracy is doomed.  The Supreme Court could surprise us, Trump could overreach, he could have health problems, Americans could tire of incessant controversy, Republicans in Congress could decide to separate themselves from an unpopular lame duck.  But the stakes are high and success is by no means assured.