The end of the “American Century”
The United States emerged in the 20th century after two world wars as the world’s sole superpower. It further cemented its political and economic hegemony with the collapse of the Soviet Union. But like all empires throughout history, the American empire has a finite half-life, and its final decline is in full view. For some historians, that has been evident for years:
“Some 15 years ago, on December 5, 2010, a historian writing for TomDispatch made a prediction that may yet prove prescient. Rejecting the consensus of that moment that U.S. global hegemony would persist to 2040 or 2050, he argued that “the demise of the United States as the global superpower could come… in 2025, just 15 years from now.”
“To make that forecast, the historian conducted what he called “a more realistic assessment of domestic and global trends.” Starting with the global context, he argued that, “faced with a fading superpower,” China, India, Iran, and Russia would all start to “provocatively challenge U.S. dominion over the oceans, space, and cyberspace.” At home in the United States, domestic divisions would “widen into violent clashes and divisive debates… Riding a political tide of disillusionment and despair, a far-right patriot captures the presidency with thundering rhetoric, demanding respect for American authority and threatening military retaliation or economic reprisal.” But, that historian concluded, “the world pays next to no attention as the American Century ends in silence.”
“Now that a “far-right patriot,” one Donald J. Trump, has indeed captured (or rather recaptured) the presidency “with thundering rhetoric,” let’s explore the likelihood that a second Trump term in office, starting in the fateful year 2025, might actually bring a hasty end, silent or otherwise, to an “American Century” of global dominion.”
China’s industrial output has surpassed that of the US and Japan, eliminating 2.4 million American jobs between 1999 and 2011. Globalized economics has frayed social safety nets, driven out unions and closed factories and businesses. This has led to a global wave of angry populism.
“Riding that wave, right-wing populists have been winning a steady succession of elections — in Russia (2000), Israel (2009), Hungary (2010), China (2012), Turkey (2014), the Philippines (2016), the U.S. (2016), Brazil (2018), Italy (2022), the Netherlands (2023), Indonesia (2024), and the U.S. again (2024).
“Set aside their incendiary us-versus-them rhetoric, however, and look at their actual achievements and those right-wing demagogues turn out to have a record that can only be described as dismal. In Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro ravaged the vast Amazon rainforest and left office amid an abortive coup. In Russia, Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, sacrificing his country’s economy to capture some more land (which it hardly lacked). In Turkey, Recep Erdogan caused a crippling debt crisis, while jailing 50,000 suspected opponents. In the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte murdered 30,000 suspected drug users and courted China by giving up his country’s claims in the resource-rich South China Sea. In Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu has wreaked havoc on Gaza and neighboring lands, in part to stay in office and stay out of prison.”
To survive as a nation, the US doesn’t need to be the world’s military, economic and political superpower, but adjusting to the change in status wouldn’t be easy under the best of circumstances. With Trump and his cult helming the transition, the negative impacts both internally and internationally will be unnecessarily painful and risky.
“Adding up the likely impact of Donald Trump’s policies in this country, Asia, Europe, and the international community generally, his second term will almost certainly be one of imperial decline, increasing internal chaos, and a further loss of global leadership. As “respect for American authority” fades, Trump may yet resort to “threatening military retaliation or economic reprisal.” But as I predicted back in 2010, it seems quite likely that “the world pays next to no attention as the American Century ends in silence.””
End of the American Century
“Some 15 years ago, on December 5, 2010, a historian writing for TomDispatch made a prediction that may yet prove prescient. Rejecting the consensus of that moment that U.S. global hegemony would persist to 2040 or 2050, he argued that “the demise of the United States as the global superpower could come… in 2025, just 15 years from now.”
“To make that forecast, the historian conducted what he called “a more realistic assessment of domestic and global trends.” Starting with the global context, he argued that, “faced with a fading superpower,” China, India, Iran, and Russia would all start to “provocatively challenge U.S. dominion over the oceans, space, and cyberspace.” At home in the United States, domestic divisions would “widen into violent clashes and divisive debates… Riding a political tide of disillusionment and despair, a far-right patriot captures the presidency with thundering rhetoric, demanding respect for American authority and threatening military retaliation or economic reprisal.” But, that historian concluded, “the world pays next to no attention as the American Century ends in silence.”
“Now that a “far-right patriot,” one Donald J. Trump, has indeed captured (or rather recaptured) the presidency “with thundering rhetoric,” let’s explore the likelihood that a second Trump term in office, starting in the fateful year 2025, might actually bring a hasty end, silent or otherwise, to an “American Century” of global dominion.”
China’s industrial output has surpassed that of the US and Japan, eliminating 2.4 million American jobs between 1999 and 2011. Globalized economics has frayed social safety nets, driven out unions and closed factories and businesses. This has led to a global wave of angry populism.
“Riding that wave, right-wing populists have been winning a steady succession of elections — in Russia (2000), Israel (2009), Hungary (2010), China (2012), Turkey (2014), the Philippines (2016), the U.S. (2016), Brazil (2018), Italy (2022), the Netherlands (2023), Indonesia (2024), and the U.S. again (2024).
“Set aside their incendiary us-versus-them rhetoric, however, and look at their actual achievements and those right-wing demagogues turn out to have a record that can only be described as dismal. In Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro ravaged the vast Amazon rainforest and left office amid an abortive coup. In Russia, Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, sacrificing his country’s economy to capture some more land (which it hardly lacked). In Turkey, Recep Erdogan caused a crippling debt crisis, while jailing 50,000 suspected opponents. In the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte murdered 30,000 suspected drug users and courted China by giving up his country’s claims in the resource-rich South China Sea. In Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu has wreaked havoc on Gaza and neighboring lands, in part to stay in office and stay out of prison.”
To survive as a nation, the US doesn’t need to be the world’s military, economic and political superpower, but adjusting to the change in status wouldn’t be easy under the best of circumstances. With Trump and his cult helming the transition, the negative impacts both internally and internationally will be unnecessarily painful and risky.
“Adding up the likely impact of Donald Trump’s policies in this country, Asia, Europe, and the international community generally, his second term will almost certainly be one of imperial decline, increasing internal chaos, and a further loss of global leadership. As “respect for American authority” fades, Trump may yet resort to “threatening military retaliation or economic reprisal.” But as I predicted back in 2010, it seems quite likely that “the world pays next to no attention as the American Century ends in silence.””
End of the American Century
Whoa! Before we jump off the cliff of despair, we need to pause a bit, take a deep breath, and remember we just had an election where the good “guys” lost by 231,646 votes out of over 151 million cast. Against impossible odds of the shortest campaign in history, a black woman almost became the leader of the free world. Harris simply needed a little more work in WI, MI, & PA & less in other battlegrounds & she would have won.
Had that scenario played out we would be talking about how the United States had finally shed itself of the horrible wrath of Donald Trump and his ilk and was now moving on to a new and healing America with fresh, intelligent leadership to regain its greatness.
No question, Democrats need to move on and move on fast. Trump and the MAGA movement are now armed with the power of government control, immunity from laws, and virtually unlimited funding from public and mega-billionaire private sources if needed. They are in a position to buy, bully & bribe, and maybe even try to cancel the next election without fear of campaign law violations. But remember, Trump and his MAGA bunch also have a huge negative — the high probability of self-destruction.
Powerful odds for Democrats to overcome, but we must. In the 2026 Midterms, all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and 33 of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate will be contested. While time is short and there’s so much to do, the country and world will have almost two years to see if they want to continue down the road of Trumpism.
I just posted a new article on Substack. “What Can Democrats Do Now?” The article explores some new ideas for Democrats to explore in areas of small business, family farms, and methods to increase citizen involvement in legislation. It also emphasizes the need for sharper messaging developed by experts to define the “product” and “sell it” to the masses.