This Is a No-Win Situation

A dangerous maneuver by Ukraine, unless Putin and Russia are willing to capitulate after years of fighting. In any case and over time, Zelensky’s life will be in danger. Putin will be hunting for an opportunity to remove this antagonist.

FP This Week – Ukraine Invades Russia

On Aug. 6, Ukraine surprised the world with an incursion into the Russian region of Kursk. This upended a growing consensus in Washington and elsewhere that the conflict was likely going to wind down along the lines already drawn. Now, there’s a new front, and Ukraine has brought the war home to Russia.

Two weeks into the offensive, has Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s gambit started to pay off? It’s in the political arena where Ukraine’s incursion has fundamentally changed the course of the conflict, argues Carl Bildt, the former prime minister of Sweden. The Kursk offensive represents a turning point in the war, Bildt writes, because it has meant that “morale and determination have surged” in Ukraine and among its Western allies, while Russian President Vladimir Putin is “clearly rattled.”

Another benefit for Kyiv could be to demonstrate to Washington, Berlin, and the broader international community the “fallacy of the red-line argument,” writes Andreas Umland of the Swedish Institute of International Affairs. “The belief in uncontrolled escalation led the Biden administration and some of its partners to severely restrict both the types of weapons delivered to Ukraine and their permitted range,” Umland writes. But because Ukrainian forces have gained control of Russian territory, perhaps they have also won the upper hand in negotiations with Putin.

Not everyone is convinced. “Color me skeptical that this is a war-changing development,” says Emma Ashford in the latest It’s Debatable column with Matthew Kroenig. Though its attention-grabbing offensive means Ukraine has retaken what Ashford terms the “narrative initiative,” the FP columnist notes that its unclear “whether the move can be leveraged for any political advantage.”

And John R. Deni, a research professor at the U.S. Army War College, doesn’t think it’s possible that Kyiv launched the operation purely for political purposes, as many have speculated. Instead, writes Deni, the Kursk offensive “may be part of a broader, longer-term campaign strategy that seeks to buy time for Ukrainian troop strength to rebound.”

Whatever Zelensky’s motives, buying time is good news for the West and its geopolitical priorities, argues A. Wess Mitchell, a former Trump administration advisor writing for FP’s Shadow Government series. The United States’ optimal approach to Russia’s war in Ukraine, postulates Mitchell, “is to use it as an opportunity to inflict a proxy defeat on Russia on a faster timeline than China is prepared to move against Taiwan.” The United States has squandered the time that it has had so far, Mitchell says—but with more military aid without restrictions and clarity on the end goal, Washington can help Ukraine and deter war in Asia.—Amelia Lester, deputy editor