15 Points and a Question About Joe Biden
Struggling to sort out your feelings about the president? So am I.
by Paul Waldman
The Cross Section
The purpose of this piece is not to convince you that Joe Biden should drop out of the race. In fact, I wrote it because I’m not sure if he should, and I think there are millions of people struggling with ambivalent and contradictory thoughts and emotions just as I am. So here are some things to keep in mind — some good, some not so good — as this story continues to develop in the wake of Biden’s disastrous performance in last week’s debate.
Struggling? No, for me there is no struggle. There is no comparison between the guy with the bad suntan who will not grow up and Joe Biden who will tell you right out he is old. A crook versus a ma who has served the nation since the eighties. Anyways read on, Paul Waldman offers up the reason why.
Preface by Dale Coberly . . .
I agree with Waldman, but will point out how I go a bit further: “Engaged only from 10am to 4pm” is not a disqualifier for President. He is not going to be woken up in the middle of the night and need to come up with a brilliant decision to meet some emergency. The Presidency is not as arduous as Waldman supposes. Some Presidents have aged in office, some have not. Lincoln grew old in office while he was still in his fifties. But he dealt with a moral dilemma that none of us could face: waging war which he hated, but absolutely necessary to save the “last best hope” of mankind. [letter to Congress 1862]. Biden will face no such moral stress. [he will need to fight against Trumism which is the greatest threat to America since the Civil War. But is not a war in which people will be killed, and Biden faces no dilemma in fighting it.] What he needs to do is guide and inspire his team to get, or try to get, policies that are good for the people. If he can manage the energy to give one good speech from time to time as needed, he will do enough. So far he has done that about as well as any President, better than some.
Unfortunately, there is the perception thing. Many, maybe most, people want a “leader” who inspires them with his “strength” as if we were a tribe of great apes, or medieval kings who led armies in battle. There is even some chance that foreign leaders would respond to him the same way: think of America as “weak.”
I doubt foreign leaders are that unsophisticated, but notice I am describing why it is some people follow Trump so blindly: to a large extent we still are a tribe of great apes. And we have to learn how to deal with that. I don’t think running away from the battle (drop out of the race) would show strength. If necessary it is better for him to “die in the saddle” bravely fighting the enemy. [“he” here means Biden.] I’ll vote for Biden whatever happens, and if he does die or become incapacitated, I will follow whoever picks up his flag and carries on the fight. Hope there is someone out there preparing “in case.”
Paul Waldman . . .
1. There are two paths ahead, one in which Biden remains the Democratic nominee and one in which he steps aside. Both involve extraordinary risk. We will all be gripped by anxiety bordering on terror for the next four months.
2. Biden has been an extremely effective president — better than many, including myself, thought he would be.
3. Biden was a poor candidate before this debate, in part because he was being protected by his staff. He gives almost no interviews and does relatively few rallies and meet-n-greets. This is not fatal — mediocre campaigners have won before — but it represents a lot of missed opportunities.
4. Running for president is not something you can delegate. Aides can’t give speeches, meet voters, or do interviews on your behalf. Biden will have to be out there on the hustings.
5. There is going to be another moment — maybe more than one — between now and November when Biden is speaking in public and gets confused, loses his train of thought, or mangles his words. When he does, the press will give it five-alarm coverage.
6. “He successfully read off a teleprompter for 15 minutes!” is not particularly reassuring. That was the tenor of some of the comments after Biden appeared at a rally in North Carolina on Friday.
7. The vast majority of people who have supported Biden up until now will still vote for him no matter what, because they’re Democrats. Not only do they hate Donald Trump, they realize that when you vote for a president you’re also voting for an entire government, future judicial appointments, hundreds if not thousands of policy decisions, etc.
8. Polls in the next few days are unlikely to mean much — there’s a good chance that amid the wave of horrible coverage they’ll show a small movement away from Biden, but after a week or two they might well reset to where they were before.
9. The results of questions like “Do you agree that Biden is too old to be president?” are good to know, but less important than who people say they’ll vote for. I think he’s too old to be president, but I’ll still vote for him if he’s the nominee. You probably feel the same way.
10. We have no idea how many voters who have supported him until now will turn away from him and toward Trump because they have newly concluded he’s too old. It might be large enough to make a real difference, or it might be infinitesimal.
10. For some time now, the argument I’ve made is that while Biden looks old — the quiet voice, the awkward gait — we had little evidence that his performance as president was limited by his age. We can’t say that today, and not just because of what we saw last week. New information is coming out suggesting limitations on his ability to function effectively, as people who have interacted with him are now talking to reporters. To take one example, White House aides told Axios that Biden is “dependably engaged” only between the hours of 10 am and 4 pm. Can we trust everything an anonymous source says? Perhaps not, but my previous position is no longer tenable.
11. As awful as his debate performance was, it was not a surprise. For a long time, Democrats have watched every press conference, public appearance, and speech Biden gives with their teeth clenched, waiting for him to lose his train of thought, amble into a sentence he can’t find his way out of, or become confused. And it has happened, repeatedly. Even the times when he was fine, he was never more than fine; at the end you’d say “That was OK, no disaster, phew.”
12. The reason Biden won in 2020 is that he was a Democrat for the normies: reassuringly mainstream, experienced, not particularly ideological, the candidate who could appeal to a broad spectrum of voters including those who might be turned off by a Bernie Sanders or an Elizabeth Warren. The normies will likely decide this election, too.
13. If Biden decides to step aside, Vice President Kamala Harris will be the Democratic nominee. You might think there are other Democrats who would have a better chance of beating Donald Trump, but they will not oppose her.
14. For multiple reasons including their resentment at having their prior coverage questioned, their anger at Biden for being so inaccessible, and the aching desire for a Big New Story, journalists are absolutely going to town on the story of Biden’s age. Editors have assigned entire teams of reporters to cover it, and they will produce one story after another about whether he’s too old and if he’ll pull out of the race. It will not go away.
15. No matter who the Democratic nominee is, everyone who cares about the future should spend the next four months making sure people understand what a monster Donald Trump is and what a horror it would be for America if he becomes president.
A troubling question
To wrap up, let me home in on a question I keep thinking about. We know that Biden has declined considerably from where he was four years ago; even if you think he’s still capable and competent, no one can deny that. Indeed, it would be a shock if he didn’t. The presidency is one of the most difficult jobs in the world: physically and mentally taxing, unremittingly stressful, requiring a combination of memory, insight, foresight, strategic thinking, and decisiveness. Nearly every president ages visibly over their time in office.
So even if you think that today at 81, Joe Biden is still capable of doing the job of president, do you think he’ll be capable of doing the job when he’s 85? After four more years of battles and crises and setbacks and stress?
Of course he won’t. I don’t think even his most ardent defenders would be able to say honestly that given his current trajectory, he’ll be able to serve another full term.
Maybe that’s OK. As long as he beats Trump in November and the immediate danger has passed, one might decide, he can step aside in a month or a year, Vice President Harris will take over, and she’ll be a perfectly good president. Which is probably true. But the more this question is asked — Is Biden really going to be able to be president for another term? — the more difficult things are going to get.
The Bernstein and Carville interviews within the last 36 hours should give ardent supporters further pause. January 2025 may be a month of great regret for not taking the honest pathway in the current split in the road. Imagine Jamie Raskin as a quick-witted, fiery and articulate candidate.
Gary:
What bothers me right mow with your response, you are taking the side of Don Trump with your denunciation of Biden who has proven himself over the last ~4 years. Not one word of his accomplishments in bringing the dream and hope of America to all of the people and not just those in the upper 1%.
We have a rogue Supreme Court. Where are your words on them? You probably do not have any because it is too complex for you to reason out what is happening. This is exactly what trump and Republicans want is chaos on the Democrats side brought on by lies and off topic comments by a liar and a fraud. Where were the moderators? Where are your comments there.
There was no intent to discuss the needs of the citizenry by trump. It was all about him. And your going to let that go and instead make this all of Biden’s fault because he was flustered by trump. You do not want accomplishments, you want something pretty regardless of how competent they are . Biden is not. He can accomplish things you and trump can not.
The great regret is you, Bernstein, and Carville not recognizing what trump is.
“It is hard to debate a liar and a fraud.” Facts mean little, accomplishments are ignored, and the reality is not the frustration of Biden. It is people like yourself and others on Angry Bear not recognizing what took place and calling trump out. Con men purposely use this tactic to confuse honest and unsuspecting people. And you fell for it.
Past results are no indication of future success!
I am 8 years younger than Biden, seems to me someone here wrote about gish gallops a few days ago.
A false dilemma is a spurious argument that offers only limited choices – usually two. Jamie Raskin was intentionally used an example of an additional choice. Raskin’s recent comments (within the last 24 hours) on the recent SC ruling are worth reviewing. In England Benjamin Disraeli did it in 1868. Maybe in 2024 Jamie Raskin could become the first American president with a Jewish religious heritage. If this is too radical an idea, there are other worthy and articulate democrat candidate choices that support democrat principles.
A false solution is a spurious argument that offers no realistic choice. There are plenty of worthy and articulate Democratic candidate choices that support Democratic principles. None of them will defeat Trump in November.
Of course, panicking over a 45 minute lapse on TV is what the right wants you to do, because then Trump can claim he brought down Biden and that he’s got the Democratic Party running scared.
BTW, substituting “democrat” for “Democratic” is a right-wing tell.
James Carville is a democrat not a ‘democratic’. His political savvy has been established in past presidential elections. Review what he is recommending to be considered.
Gary:
The false dilemma is of your creation.
You still have not addressed the actions of a fraud and a liar who has practiced his wares for decades as taught to him by his elders and first attorney pre-2018.
Why is that acceptable to you?
This reply precisely represents the false dilemma quicksand that will likely end in January 2025 regret. If you are not for A, you must, per force, be for B. There are no other options possible.
TEF:
Trot out whatever bromide to distract from the issue. You do not dispute the lies and fraudulent actions of trump. Indeed, you are buying into it to enact a false solution. Blame Biden for trumps lies and theft of a debate. Are you afraid of trump? You are not calling him out in the same manner as Biden who delivered 4 years of a good economy in spite of a pandemic and trump’s 2017 tax break which has created a 2+ trillion dollar deficit.
Four years of a successful economy and nation and you cast him aside based upon your conclusions which have little foundation.
Not acceptable Gary. Gonna have to try harder.
An aged, human being with obvious impairment can do okay lead around for 6 hours!
Who is running the country from 1601 to 0959 hours the next day?
Cavalier attitude for the aged human with the nuclear codes!
The “bar” is not high!
Find someone else to beat the evil one!
paddy:
Did you remark about trump having the codes? Did you remark. Trump says to General Milley, “you know, in World War II, the Nazi generals. And they were totally loyal to Hitler.” And Kelly says, “no, they weren’t. What are you talking about? You do know that they tried to kill Hitler three times, right? No, no, no, Donald Trump says. ‘They were completely loyal.;”
This is what you are defending.
I can not say, my reactions would have been better than Biden’s frustrations with the trump public lies. Flustered for the moment and then taking it to him. trump is a liar and you are buying into his lies.
No!
I would never defend Trump!
The abject horror of Trump is no reason to demand lesser of the alternative candidates!
If Biden is against Trump I will vote neither nor! Aka 3rd party.
paddy:
You have no alternatives right now. And past performance does lay a foundation for future success. He does need to fix the USPS.
Shorter paddy: if I don’t get my way, I’ll throw my vote away!
That is our democracy!
paddy
“who is running the country…”
i think you asked that before. first, “no one is running this country.” it is designed that way. it is not an airplane which requires constant monitoring to stay on course at altitude, it does need a pilot to keep an eye on things, but on long flights there are co=pilots who can take over. the president has close aides who can “run the country” while he is asleep. and thousands of sub-managers who normally keep the country on course without getting direct minute by minute dirctions from the boss. about the only “running the country” the country needs right now is saving it from the Trumpists, including the Trumpism supreme court. That is not going to be done in a day, or by skill in debate, or in some great emergency “only the president” can deal with .
Every call for Biden to quit is a vote for Trump …
Every call for Biden to quit is a vote for our democracy, run by a competent president
Paddy, on target … and exactly in the center of the bull’s eye.
Paddy is an old man, and like the veterans in Kipling’s “Tommy”
“…… Tommy sees”
TEF
and paddy
Biden has looked pretty competent so far. You want Trump? Have you got a better man than Biden in mind. Do you think a spineless party–the Dems for the last 20 some years….is going to look strong by cutting and running at the first sign of a problem?
I do not see a viable candidate for POTUS! Your mileage may vary but I make my own decisions.
Trump is irrelevant to the issue.
Problems, problem Biden is sepuku for the party.
paddy
yu make your own decisions:
you say there you don’t see a viable candidate but you are not willing to fight for the one you’ve got….just jump on the bandwagon whith his enemies.
and Trump IS THE ISSSUE.
this is the problem with DEOMOCRACY, AND THE FRAMERS KNEW it. any demagogue can invent a bogeyman and the people rush to the demagogue to save them.
all caps here is a typo. too hard to fix it. don’t panic.
Yesterday, somewhere, I saw a transcript of what Biden actually said during the debate. He was not reading from a teleprompter. It was coherent and made perfect sense up until the end when he and Trump got into the silliness about their golf handicaps. What was alarming was the low volume and hesitation in Biden’s speech, not what he said in large part. What people complaining about Biden seem to ignore is the effectiveness he has shown in navigating without Congressional support. He has a Republican House and a Senate controlled by two independents, one of whom might as well be a Republican. Add to that a right wing Supreme Court determined to dismantle administrative agencies. He’s really done an impressive job while publicly mumbling from time to time, making the occasional gaffe, and displaying a stiff gait. He’s no movie star but he’s a hell of a lot better for the country than Ronald Reagan was and he’s running against an ignorant, bombastic, authoritarian who may well be a Russian agent. Sometimes you have to play defense even though it’s not as exciting. The media reaction is totally self interested. It wants stories, could care less about their impact as long as it sells, and has the ethics the average car sales person.
JackD
yes.
I am sorry I tried. Both Waldman’s essay and my comment were truncated here so their meaning is completely lost. Then the comment thread is dominated bu people whose minds are too small to even consider that there might be other things to consider.
and fussing over “democrat” vs “Democratic” is eighth -grade pedantry, I first saw “Democrat” used as, or said to be, an insulting substitute for “Democratic” during the second Clinton campaign. It…calling it insulting…makes no grammatical sense, no one cares about it except a few…um…people who can’t keep their minds on what is important, and insisting upon it wins no votes.
but since we have the voters we have and not the voters we would like to have, maybe the people shouting “his is too old” are right…about themselves.
Will Rogers “I belong to no organized political party; I am a Democrat.”
for those who don’t know, Will Rogers was an American humorist in the 1930’s.
He also said “There is no permanent criminal class in America, except Congress.”
people laughed at that.
Dale:
The last part of your email I missed and did not include. The part of Paul Waldman’s commentary where he says he does not want Biden to drop out was not in your email you sent to me. Everything else was included.
Bill
thanks for fixing it.
Bob Dole referred to “Democrat wars.” He did not mean “democratic wars” that would have been sort of a compliment like “just wars.” Dole had reason to be bitter. He lost use of his arm in a war that began under a Democrat administration. And during his lifetime, WWI and WWII and Korea and Vietnam.. were “Democrat wars.”
Apparently the “organized political party” is called The Democratic Party. and certainly Dole was not meaning to praise The Democratic Party when he said “Democrat wars,” but there is no reason to believe the words he used themselves as an insult. But there were a lot of people, for and against, who took him to mean that. And ran with it for a few years until everyone got tired of it. Now if I refer to the Democrat[ic] Party I don’t expect to be attacked as using a “Republican tell.” I just mean the Party that is full of people who call themselves Democrats…not “Democratics.” If I forget to use the capital letter…well, i have not used capital letters since I read Archie and Mehitable long before you heard of e.e.cummings.
I think it is silly…about like arguing about your golf handicap in a Presidential debate. I have been trying to use more caps since I learned that not using them is confusing to some people.
Now, can we get back to the life and death stuff.
What I think I get out of all this from RW is that he views almost no incremental risk of running Harris. So run Harris as an incumbent President.
Here is the rest of my comment re Waldman…the last paragraph was lost in the “preface” given above. I think it is worth thinking about:
I agree with Waldman, but will point out how I go a bit further: “Engaged only from 10am to 4pm” is not a disqualifier for President. He is not going to be woken up in the middle of the night and need to come up with a brilliant decision to meet some emergency. The Presidency is not as arduous as Waldman supposes. Some Presidents have aged in office, some have not. Lincoln grew old in office while he was still in his fifties. But he dealt with a moral dilemma that none of us could face: waging war which he hated, but absolutely necessary to save the “last best hope” of mankind. [letter to Congress 1862]. Biden will face no such moral stress. [he will need to fight against Trumism which is the greatest threat to America since the Civil War. But is not a war in which people will be killed, and Biden faces no dilemma in fighting it.] What he needs to do is guide and inspire his team to get, or try to get, policies that are good for the people. If he can manage the energy to give one good speech from time to time as needed, he will do enough. So far he has done that about as well as any President, better than some.
Unfortunately there is the percepttion thing. Many, maybe most, people want a “leader” who inspires them with his “strength” as if we were a tribe of great apes, or medieval kings who led armies in battle. There is even some chance that foreign leaders would respond to him the same way: think of America as “weak.”
I doubt foreign leaders are that unsophisticated, but notice I am describing why it is some people follow Trump so blindly: to a large extent we still are a tribe of great apes. And we have to learn how to deal with that. I don’t think running away from the battle (drop out of the race) would show strength. If necessary it is better for him to “die in the saddle” bravely fighting the enemy. [“he” here means Biden.] I’ll vote for Biden whatever happens, and if he does die or become incapacitated, I will follow whoever picks up his flag and carries on the fight. Hope there is someone out there preparing “in case.”
Every call for Biden to quit is a vote for Trump
If you have a problem with that you are either A) a right-wing troll or B) a fool led around by the nose by right-wing trolls
Calls for Biden to quit are a right-wing misinformation tactic
They aren’t all right wingers doing it. There’s the likes of the New York Times editorial board, Paul Krugman (for God’s sake!), Tom Friedman, and others. They’re not spouting misinformation; they’re just wrong.
JackD
and not for the first time.
I think Biden should announce today that he’s not going to run. I also think Harris should announce that she’s not going to run.
The Democratic Party could then open up the nomination. We Democrats have until August 20th to come up with a new candidate. The party could host a series of at least three public debates plus whatever other campaign events are available. Then the DNC convention picks our next nominee. A shortened campaign season of 50 days should provide us enough time to choose wisely.
I think Gretchen Whitmer, Andy Beshear of Kentucky, Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, Mark Kelly of Arizona would all make outstanding candidates.
Jim Han
Quickly, What over the last 4 years convinces you he is not worthy besides not beating the crap out of trump?
Bill,
I think Biden has been a good president and I think historians will agree.
But we are voting on the future. He is simply too old to perform this very tough job for another four years. I wish he had announced in December 2022 that he would not be running again.
Now I think we all should tell him not to run.
Jim:
There is no reason he should have announced such 2 years ago during a pandemic. You and the others are going off the deep end now. Biden was not prepared to discuss lies with trump. He was prepared to discuss what he did over 3+years which he did present in a quiet voice due to a cold, etc.
Jim Han
have you considered the possible negative consequences of what you suggest?
or whether your information is correct or complete.
or whether people close to Biden, including doctors, have not considered the chances that another public embarrassment will or will not occur.
or, if i may modestly suggest, have you read my comment about “appearing strong” versus quitting ?
Dale,
Yes, I’ve weighed the pros and cons of my choice. I think the Democratic Party and the U.S. government are better off with a different candidate.
According to a post debate CNN poll, nearly 75% of voters think the Democrats would do better with a different candidate.
TEF
hell of a way to run a railroad, How many of that 75% are Republicans?
and since we have polls why do we need elections?
Jim
okay. I can’t ask for anything more.