I love predictions

As a career research scientist, I’ve made many predictions in my time. It was fun and rewarding to design controlled experiments to test my predictions. And the wonderful thing about science is that, if your prediction is wrong, you learn something new.

I don’t make many predictions myself these days. But I’m interested in the predictions of others. Not because I necessarily trust them. But when someone shows their work, you can weigh their judgment going forward.

About ten years ago, I was following a blog of a guy I went to high school with. In the comment threads, there were forever these dire predictions of hyperinflation in America around the corner because of the national debt. Of course, they proved wrong, and foreseeably so. People who know nothing about economics, the US economy and world history shouldn’t make predictions about such things.

I started following blogs after 9/11. I abandoned most of them because the bloggers proved to be unreliable gasbags. I continued to follow Kevin Drum, starting when he blogged as Calpundit and through many iterations down to his current blog, jabberwocking.com. He’s not always right, but he has a fondness for numbers and evidence that I share.

Here are Kevin’s 10 predictions for 2024.

Kevin Drum’s predictions for 2024