Why are so many long-shot Republicans running against Trump?
As of today, Trump seems well-positioned to win the Republican nomination. The basic dynamic is familiar from 2016 – Trump has a strong base of committed supporters, the opposition will likely be divided, and many Republican primaries are winner-take-all or winner-take-most. Couple this with the bump in support Trump got after his indictment in NY, the apparent missteps and general unlikeability of his chief rival DeSantis, and the fact that Trump seems to be running a functional campaign so far and it is hard to see much of a path for challengers.
And yet large numbers of politicians who would be serious contenders in a pre-MAGA year are either running or teasing a run: Pence, Christy, Haley, Sununu, Scott, Youngkin in addition to DeSantis, and maybe one or two others. Why are they doing this?
The most important reason is that running for President is always a long shot, so if you want the job and can generate any interest in your campaign, you might as well throw your hat in the ring. Fame is fleeting, conditions in 2028 or 2032 could easily be worse than they are today.
This surely holds for DeSantis. Until recently it seemed that he was keeping the option of not running open. DeSantis is only 44. Why not let Trump run and either win and be term-limited or lose and age out, and then pick up the mantle of MAGA-in-chief in 2028? The main reason I suspect is that DeSantis could well be a flash in the pan and he knows it. The MAGA movement could fade out, his brand of culture war MAGA-ism could face a backlash or just die a quiet death, something could go wrong in Florida, the Republican donor class could find a new horse to bet on . . . the list of hurdles is long.
Couple this with the real possibility that Trump will falter in some way and running makes sense even if it is difficult today to see a clear path for anyone other than DT.
Also runs can later on capitulate, throw in the towel, and support DT earning themselves political capital in their own future political pursuits even if DT gets clobbered by Ordinary Joe in November 2024.
The cream the turd floats to the top of, sucking all the air out of the room. With all those ‘running’ ~ I think you missed a couple ~ the one with the greatest name recognition gets all the attention. How many of those people is Joe Sixpack familiar with?
It’s a strategy to improve Trump’s placement in the public eye …
This is how Trump got the nomination in 2016: divide and conquer. Of course, when you’re the party whose only platforms are grievance and conspiracy theories, nobody does it better than Trump.
Here’s something else…
‘No Labels’ Eyes a Third-Party Run in 2024. Democrats Are Alarmed
NY Times – May 19
The centrist group is gaining steam — and raising money — in its effort to get a candidate on the 2024 ballot, with Joe Manchin at the top of their list. (Followed by Kyrsten Sinema.)
The bipartisan political group No Labels is stepping up a well-funded effort to field a “unity ticket” for the 2024 presidential race, prompting fierce resistance from even some of its closest allies who fear handing the White House back to Donald J. Trump.
At the top of the list of potential candidates is Senator Joe Manchin III, the conservative West Virginia Democrat who has been a headache to his party and could bleed support from President Biden in areas crucial to his re-election.
The centrist group’s leadership was in New York this week raising part of the money — around $70 million — that it says it needs to help with nationwide ballot access efforts.
“The determination to nominate a ticket” will be made shortly after the primaries next year on what is known as Super Tuesday, March 5, said Nancy Jacobson, the co-founder and leader of No Labels. A national convention has been set for April 14-15 in Dallas, where a Democrat-Republican ticket would be set to take on the two major-party nominees. (Mr. Biden is facing two long-shot challengers, and Mr. Trump is the Republican front-runner.)
Other potential No Labels candidates being floated include Senator Kyrsten Sinema, an Arizona independent, and former Gov. Larry Hogan of Maryland, a Republican, who … is the national co-chairman of the group. But Mr. Manchin has received most notice recently after speaking on a conference call last month with donors. …
Related…
Biden’s Slow Start Worries Democrats. Aides Insist All Is Well.
NY Times – May 10
Two weeks after President Biden unveiled his re-election bid, his campaign manager has yet to start the job, his seven co-chairs have not had a group discussion and his team has made little outreach to allies in Congress. …
Mr. Biden’s top advisers insist the limited-release nature of his 2024 campaign is boring by design. They say they are holding down costs by outsourcing as much as possible to the Democratic National Committee while the president’s senior staff members remain ensconced in top White House roles that allow them to engage in campaign strategy.
“All of the pieces that should and need to fall into place will,” Jeffrey Katzenberg, the Hollywood mogul and Democratic megadonor and one of the Biden campaign co-chairs, said in an interview. …
LOL! Biden is running for POTUS every day simply by *being* POTUS. All this bafflegab is just media clickbait.
If the GOP wannabees are not too nasty to Mr Trump, maybe they will stand a chance at gaining the VP slot? Tim Scott maybe. Is it too late for Nikki Haley? Otherwise, it might have to be Rudy Giuliani.
If not they are just getting some practice for 2028.
Trump on Tim Scott
The Hill – May 22
“Good luck to Senator Tim Scott in entering the Republican Presidential Primary Race,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “It is rapidly loading up with lots of people, and Tim is a big step up from Ron DeSanctimonious, who is totally unelectable.”
Trump noted that he and Scott worked together to establish opportunity zones, an investment incentive included in the 2017 tax cut legislation passed by Republicans and signed into law by Trump.
It is likely that President-again Trump will declare himself President in Pepetuity.
DeSantis Allies’ $200 Million Plan for Beating Trump
NY Times – May 24
A key political group supporting Ron DeSantis’s presidential run is preparing a $100 million voter-outreach push so big it plans to knock on the door of every possible DeSantis voter at least four times in New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina — and five times in the kickoff Iowa caucuses.
The effort is part of an on-the-ground organizing operation that intends to hire more than 2,600 field organizers by Labor Day, an extraordinary number of people for even the best-funded campaigns. …
Top officials with the pro-DeSantis group, a super PAC called Never Back Down, provided their most detailed account yet of their battle plan to aid Mr. DeSantis, whom they believe they can sell as the only candidate to take on — and win — the cultural fights that are definitional for the Republican Party in 2024.
The group said it expected to have an overall budget of at least $200 million, including more than $80 million to be transferred from an old DeSantis state political account, for the daunting task of vaulting the Florida governor past former President Donald J. Trump. …