Why did the Democrats overperform relative to the fundamentals?
As I write this it is still possible the Democrats will lose control of Congress, with all that entails, but the Democrats did outperform the fundamentals, and it is useful to think about why. Here is my quick list of possible explanations:
Increased partisanship and decreased cross-over voting (see here).
Inflation may not be as much of an economic negative as a lot of commentary suggests; maybe unemployment matters more.
Voters may be better at separating disappointment with Biden from support for Republicans than retrospective voting models assume. It’s not just “throw the bums out” if the other party doesn’t look so hot.
Voters may be better at understanding what politicians are responsible for than retrospective voting theory suggests. Perhaps they understood that Biden was not responsible for high gas prices etc.
Dobbs. Pro-choice referenda are doing well so far.
Maybe Biden’s focus on democracy, the 9/11 hearings, and the raid at Mar-a-Lago made democracy a voting issue for a few swing voters or created more Never Trump Republicans. One suggestive piece of evidence: governor and secretary of state candidates who endorsed the big lie are not doing well, though Lake could win.
Candidate quality continues to be a problem for Republicans. The first party to convince its base voters that moderation is a virtue may reap a large electoral advantage.
Republican crime messaging may have been less effective than many hoped/feared. Very interesting.
Turnout: we still have much to learn about turnout by ideology, race, gender, etc.
This will take many months to sort out.
If the Democrats keep the Senate, winners are democracy, Democrats, Biden, moderation, Ukraine, and DeSanctimonious. Losers are Trump, Trump, Trump, Putin, Republicans, Kevin McCarthy. (Trump is lucky he chose not to announce his candidacy on Monday.) If Republicans win the Senate, it’s going to be ugly.
The simple theory advanced on MSNBC’s Morning Joe was that voters just wanted to get away from craziness. They may not get their wish. Looks like Dems will lose the House and at best keep control of the Senate in a slightly different 50-50 split, unless Hershel Walker wins a runoff in GA next month, assuming the Dems hold the seat in AZ.
Very thankful that Trump was the biggest loser, but doubt that will change GOP dynamic. The Dems still have a lame duck session where they could eliminate the debt ceiling and take away the GOP leverage to gut social programs on pain of crashing the world economy. If the GOP wants to spend its time impeaching Biden, investigating DOJ etc while saying no to everything else in government— and maybe dumping Ukraine— that does not seem to be what most of their voters want and saner heads may prevail. Big deal in the Senate because of the judges, but as I said at least Trump seems to have lost big time.
Terry, i guess i am a pessimist. glad the Dems “beat the fundamentals” but when you see what they were running against, anything less than a 9 to 1 blowout is cause for concern.
Yes, they do need to eliminate the debt ceiling. And if MMT could eliminate the Big Debt Lie, I’d put up with the same people in congress making the same decisions while screaming “it’s the inflation!”
Meanwhile if either of those is a problem, raising taxes would be the solution.
Coberly,
You deserve an attaboy for that comment. So, attaboy Coberly. Take care.
Thanks, Ron.
Voters Reject Trump-Backed Election Deniers in Several Key States
NY Times – Nov 9
Democrats won races for top election posts in several political battlegrounds where their Republican rivals had cast doubt on the 2020 contest …
Voters in a series of critical battleground states rejected Republican candidates for governor, attorney general and secretary of state who have spread doubts about the 2020 election, blocking an effort to install allies of former President Donald J. Trump in positions with sweeping authority over voting.
In Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, Democrats prevailed on Tuesday against Republican opponents who, to varying degrees, had campaigned on overhauling elections in ways that would benefit their party and called into question their commitment to democratic outcomes. …
… in several places where power over elections was directly on the ballot — particularly races for secretary of state — Trump-aligned Republicans did not do well. Setting aside Arizona and Nevada, where two leading proponents of 2020 election lies could still win, Democratic candidates for secretary of state beat far-right opponents in Michigan, New Mexico and Minnesota, and were defeated by such a candidate only in deep-red Indiana. …