Polling Uncertainty
Kind of what I been reading is what Infidel is writing about in this post of his. NYT has a detailed opinion article about the complexity of polling on the 24th (freebie). Even they see polling results as complex.
I believe Roe v Wade will still play a part in how women and others will vote. I am also hoping Alito will keep flapping his lips. It stirs the crowd up and reminds people he was the instigator in Roe V Wade. Six days off now to the election. “Vote!“
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Infidel753: “Polling uncertainty,” Infidel753 Blog.
I’ve never been one of those who dismiss polls as meaningless. Political parties and campaigns, and the media, pay millions for polls during each election cycle. If the polls weren’t giving them useful information, they’d stop doing so and save their money. It’s true that pollsters rely on very small samples of the population, but by weighting various demographic categories, they can adjust their results to reflect the general population, or registered voters, or likely voters — whatever they are trying to analyze.
However, pollsters’ projections depend upon what assumptions they are making about voter turnout. If turnout is substantially different from what the pollster expects, the actual election outcome will be correspondingly different from what the polls projected. This year, turnout models are especially iffy because of the influence of a new factor (the end of Roe and subsequent wave of abortion bans in red states), for which nobody really knows how much impact it will have. The only hard data point we have is the Kansas referendum, for which polls showed a very close result, whereas the actual result was not close (60% favoring abortion rights), while turnout was very high for an election of that type. Obviously the pollsters misread how the sudden salience of the issue would affect turnout. On the other hand, it was a referendum, and we don’t know whether the threat to abortion rights will affect candidate elections in the same way. A referendum is on a single issue, while assessment of candidates turns on all the issues the voters expect an elected official to act on when in office.
Pollsters are also smarting from 2016, where they failed to anticipate how Trump’s unique appeal to citizens of a type who often don’t reply to polls would drive them to vote. They may be over-compensating by over-estimating Republican turnout. Trump is, after all, not on the ballot this year, so it’s unclear whether his loyalists will turn out as much as in 2016 or 2020.
So, basically, this year the accuracy of polling is more uncertain than usual. The election could be close or it could be a landslide for either side. We can’t be sure. Be prepared for surprises — in either direction. Democrats would be wise to fight as if they were behind, and to take nothing for granted.
Lots of women got abortions before Roe by traveling to states where abortion was legal and by all accounts lots of women are getting abortions post Dobbs both by traveling and getting abortion pills by mail. Of course, poor women suffer more and some women who have medical issues will die, but abortion did not affect elections before Roe and notwithstanding Kansas, I doubt very much it will have a significant effect post Dobbs. That being said, it will be interesting to see whether the extreme Trump supporters turn out and the same can be said of the left and particularly the young left. Typically, the young and left do not vote and they are the only hope for the Dems in this election.
I don’t think the evidence supports the view that the fall of Roe will have little or no effect. Both new-voter registration since the decision, and early voting now, have skewed heavily female. Republicans have been talking about a national abortion ban, which would eliminate the option of traveling to another state. (In practice Biden would veto such a ban, but most people don’t seem very aware of the details of who can do what in our system.) Also, don’t forget the Republican threats to Social Security. Older people do tend to turn out consistently.
As to those who for whatever reason don’t vote, well, they have only themselves to blame that their views are ignored.
Absolutely agree on the social security and Medicare threats and as an old guy I fully understand it, but do not believe many of my peer group is even aware of it or simply assume that it will never happen— sort of like women assuming Roe would never be overturned. Hope you are right that the registration data will translate into Democrat votes, but I need to see it to believe it and it does not appear to be showing up in the polling data which it would not with a likely voter filter but should in the registered voter filters and there is some support for that in the early polls showing Dem leads which tended to use the registered voter filters.🤞
Terry:
I agree with Infidel, hence this post of his being here.
I believe women are very aware of having their rights to do anything restricted by a male dominated Congress and presidency. Male dominance has always been front and center in this nation and other nations as well. Some places will even burn them alive or cut their heads off.
The threat of Roe v Wade overturned has been a nightmare for women. The threat was always there a dark shadow in the corner. Something which was openly spoken about by the Alitos and Thomases of scotus.
It is not written into the original Constitution. Neither is looking out for cars racing down the road. We have laws for such. The Nineth Amendment to the Constitution was agreed upon by the signers of the Constitution and this court chooses to actively ignore it.
I believe pissed-off women will turn out as well as us too. We need to end this and put these insurrectionists and their followers in their place and into obscurity.
The only way it matters is if it impacts turnout. Republican women will continue to vote Republican. Nothing has prevented that before now, and the party hasn’t done anything they weren’t very clear about wanting to do.
There was a shock in the summer, but Republicans very quickly line back up to vote for Republicans, in the face of any type of moral challenge. They believe in party over reality.
“Trump’s unique appeal to citizens of a type who often don’t reply to polls”
I believe that Trump voters were also inclined to lie to pollsters.
yes true, but what would they lie about? That they are DEmocrats?
I remember back in the day I received an offer from Neilson to record my television watching in a booklet. Think it paid like $10 a month or something. Threw it in the trash. Couple months later I am at my sister’s house and see that booklet on a table, partially filled in.
I blamed her for making “Happy Days” the #1 show.
Blame her for “Joannie loves Chachi” as well.
Presumably, the GOP would like voters to believe that the Dobbs decision from SCOTUS will not influence voters much next week. We will soon find out.
(There are a few competitive House races in New England. But there is one competitive Senate race, in NH.)
The extremist in New Hampshire who might flip the Senate
Boston Globe – Nov 3
Don Bolduc, a retired Army general who lied about the 2020 election, has pivoted toward the center since the Republican primary. And it seems to be working.
Boston Globe – just in
N.H. school officials push back after Bolduc repeats hoax about kids using litter boxes
“We want to assure our community that Mr. Bolduc’s statements are entirely untrue,” Pinkerton Academy tweeted.
kids using litterboxes…
… Bolduc claimed that schools in Claremont, Dover, and Derry were “putting litter boxes” around classrooms for children there to use. He named Pinkerton Academy, in Derry, specifically …
The latest CBS-reported poll on the NH Senate race, by UMass-Lowell (just south of the NH border BTW) has Dem incumbent Maggie Hassan up by 10% over ex-Gen Don Bolduc.
Eight days before the election, we have our final* midterm surveys: polls of the four states likeliest to determine control of the Senate.
New York Times/Siena College polls – Oct 31
Pennsylvania: John Fetterman (D) 49, Mehmet Oz (R) 44.
Arizona: Mark Kelly (D) 51, Blake Masters (R) 45.
Nevada: Adam Laxalt (R) 47, Catherine Cortez Masto (D) 47. (tied)
Georgia: Raphael Warnock (D) 49, Herschel Walker (R) 46.
Fred
That varies greatly from what is being said.