“Will The Iran Nuclear Deal Ever Get Reestablished?,” Econospeak
It (Iran Nuclear Deal) keeps looking like it might, but then no obstacles have appeared yet. President Biden promised to undo what I have long argued was the worst foreign policy mistake made by Donald Trump. He should have just done it right after he took office, but he made a bunch of extra demands and the negotiations went nowhere. Then the moderate Rouhani government was replaced by the hardline Raisi one, something some of us like me forecasted would happen if he listened to these people who thought he should make demand about missiles and foreign groups. None of this is going anywhere.
Anyway, there have been fresh rumors of a nearly done deal, but it seems to be stalled out now on two items. One is US demanding Iran let IAEA inspect some sites. The other is Iran demanding Biden promise no future president will undo the deal the way Trump did. Biden cannot promise that, or maybe he can promise it, but he cannot deliver it, and they should know that.
A further complication is the Ukraine war, with Iran now supplying Russia with drones. This is not directly a part of the negotiation, but it is souring the atmosphere. Russia is pushing for the deal to be cut.
Another complication is the Iranian leaders think Biden is desperate for the extra 2 mbpd of oil production and exports that would probably come out of Iran with an end to sanctions. But they may have not noticed that gasoline prices in the US have been steadily declining for nearly three months. Not quite so desperate, and also burned by MBS, who gave him a miniscule 100,000 mbpd increase in production for that first bump. Now withdrawn on request of V.V. Putin because of the ongoing decline in oil prices.
Anyway, the JCPOA should have been revived long ago, but here we are, and unclear if it ever will be.