September Update: COVID Death Rates By Partisan Lean & Vaccination Rate
September Update: “COVID Death Rates by Partisan Lean & Vaccination Rate”| ACA Signups, Charles Gaba
As always, here’s my (Charles Gaba) methodology:
- County-level 2020 Population data via U.S. Census Bureau’s 2020 Census
- County-level 2020 Trump vote data via each state’s Election Commission or Secretary of State websites
- County-level Case & Death data via Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science & Engineering for 47 states; NY Times COVID-10 in the United States github for NE & UT only; & the White House COVID-19 Team Community Profile Report for Florida only.
Remember: “Decile” means 1/10th or 10% of the total population (all 50 states + DC).
There’s still a clear and dramatic correlation between how much of the population has been 2-dose vaccinated and its COVID death rate since May 1, 2021. The least-vaccinated decile has a death rate ~3.4x higher than the most-vaccinated decile. It’s important to note that this jumps around a bit from month to month since a few counties move from one decile bracket to the other as vaccination data is bulk-updated:
As always, what’s even more disturbing is how closely the death rate by partisan lean matches the death rate by vaccination rate; they’re almost mirror images of each other: The death rate since May 1, 2021 in the reddest tenth of the country is still over 3.0x higher than in the bluest tenth:
AB: One has to wonder if Republican legislators and naysayers feel any guilt for misleading the population they are responsible for in representation.
“ARP Medicaid Postpartum Coverage Expansion” (Charles Gaba ACA Signups)” – Angry Bear (angrybearblog.com)
Natural selection in action.
Infidel
Is that to say Naturally dumb selection in play? They should poll the politicians to see who got the shots and who did not and why. Show their constituents just how tough they are.
We’re a species that relies primarily on technology for survival (and vaccines are the most effective survival-enhancing technology ever invented). It’s to be expected that populations who renounce the use of technology will have lower survival rates than populations who embrace it. That’s classic natural selection. Humans who reject technology are like gazelles who reject running or tortoises who reject having shells.
Belief in anti-vax claims is certainly evidence of stupidity, or at least ignorance, but that’s really a secondary point. From a natural-selection standpoint it doesn’t matter what the reason is for rejecting technology.
A strongly age-correlated mortality cause is not likely to drive population evolution much. On the other hand, be cautious with young people.
Evolution does not ask for “much”. Evolution is a long, slow, process for the most part. It guaranties nothing, including survival.
If Red voters choose ignorance and faith over knowledge and science, this will have an effect over the long term. At least, I hope so.
Isn’t this old news? It might have been updated in September, but I assume most of the deaths were before omicron took over. I’d like to see data for only the omicron phase, since the vaccines are less effective against omicron and deciding whether to get vaccinated, boosted or double-boosted now depends on effectiveness against the variant out there now. Of course, I guess there’s now an omicron vaccine, but I’m not sure how available it is.
Mike:
Go to the Hopkins site and you can play all you want.
CDC COVID Data Tracker: Home
Certainly the vaccines against Omicron B 5 or whatever are available— I got my shot last week. As to the correlation between Trump voters and Covid death rate, I am thinking a lot more than vaccination rates are at play— intentionally risky behavior, non mask wearing, poorer health to start with including obesity, substance abuse, lack of exercise and general distrust of medical providers as part of the general distrust of science and education—
I would start with age. Not only is it an clear factor; but one probably with very reliable data versus some of the factors you mention.
Certainly age is the single greatest predictor of mortality rates with vaccination status second but I was addressing the partisan divide in mortality since vaccines became available. In fact I believe but do not know, that if you take out the Northeast’s experience during the first 3 months of the pandemic that at least red states had a much higher mortality rate than blue states and that continued after vaccines became widely available. Indeed, whether Red or Blue generally the old are the most vaccinated group— seems that even if you believe the former guy is the Messiah you still do not want to die.
Exactly so.
Several of my in-laws (all from CT or NY) have gotten Covid-19 and not gotten very sick, but they were all vaccinated and boosted by the time they came out of their lairs and mingled enough to contract the disease. Sadly, all are also life-long Republicans and Trump voters.
My wife, Republican from birth same as her five siblings, voted for Obama in 2008 thanks to Sarah Palin and voted for Biden in 2020 thanks to Trump. We both abstained from voting in 2016. I always vote Democratic, but Hillary was a bridge too far for me just like VA gubernatorial candidate Mary Sue Terry was in 1993. As much as I would like to see more Democratic Party women candidates get elected to executive branch office, there are only a few such as Liz Warren that I would actually vote for. AOC is not one of them. Kamala Harris is fine with me, but obviously too liberal for my Republican born wife.
One has to wonder if Republican legislators and naysayers feel any guilt for misleading the population they are responsible for in representation.
No, not in the least bit.
Yep. Commitment bias runs deep in almost anyone that actually embraces either of our two relevant political parties and it runs hand-in-hand with self-righteousness.