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How Does the War in Ukraine end ?

Robert Waldmann | September 17, 2022 3:43 am

US/Global Economics

As always, I must start by saying I have no expertise and there is no reason anyone should be particularly interested in my thoughts.

The question is how will the war in Ukraine end. I guess I have a guess, but it implies it will last a long time.

I can think of 3 possibilities, Russian victory, Ukrainian victory or a negotiated peace.

First, I think it won’t end with Russian victory. Given recent Ukrainian battlefield victories, this sounds obvious. I think also that even if the Russian army were to defeat the Ukrainian army (as I and many others expected at the time of the invasion) the war would not end, but rather shift to a guerrilla war of resistance. It is clear that even a battlefield victory would require Russian mobilization including sending draftees. That seems unlikely.

I think a Ukrainian victory is possible. By this I mean a withdrawal of Russian forces to the internationally recognized borders. Some Ukrainians have discussed reparations and prosecution of war criminals. They are not being reasonable. Ukraine certainly won’t cross the border into Russia to obtain either.

I do not think that Vladimir Putin will ever accept a complete Ukrainian victory. I see no reason to hope he would. I think this outcome depends on removal of Putin through a palace coup, assassination, or death by natural causes. At that point the new Russian leader (or junta) might withdraw. Importantly, I think a hawk who advocated invading Urkaine would do that (and lie about the earlier advocacy).

I don’t see much chance of any sort of negotiated compromise unless there is a major battlefield reversal. FIrst it would amount to a defeat of Putin, and he won’t accept it (see above). Second, the vast majority of Urkainians wouldn’t accept it. I can see only one possible compromise — a Crimean referendum conducted by the UN. I am not Urkainian, but I see no problem with this. I also think it possible that Crimeans would vote to join Russia (here one problem is that the electorate has to be people who lived there when Russia forcibly annexed Crimea with no vote for people who moved from Russia to Crimea after the annexation). This seems unlikely. I don’t think Ukrainians would accept this. I am sure Putin wouldn’t. I don’t see why any Russian replacement regime would. In particular, I see no chance of a return to the status quo ante when Crimea was part of Ukraine but the Sebastopol naval base was controlled by Russia. That didn’t work, and I don’t think Urkaine would accept it.

In any case, this compromise would only be possible if Putin were removed (or killed). I don’t see how that could happen any time soon, and I expect the war to continue for a long time.

7 Comments

Ten Bears says:

September 17, 2022 at 4:55 am

My feeling is Russia will implode, and with it the world order as we know it.

Fools and newcomers predict the weather, I like to think I’m neither.

Of course, as the atmosphere’s compatibility with human survival continues to deteriorate, not too much longer the world order as we know it will change anyways. Russia claims Siberia, it doesn’t control it, and both China and Japan have ancestral and cultural ties as well as territorial claims that date a thousand years or more. Siberia is prime real estate, is where our eight soon to be ten billions will want to go when where they are is too hot to stay. (Canada too, but …) You can’t stop the migration; it can’t be stopped.

I have been (pleasantly) surprised by Russia’s failure, proving it’s nothing more than a paper tiger, hiding behind twentieth century technology that may not even work. Like others, closer to home …
run75441 says:

September 17, 2022 at 11:42 am

Robert:

I did pose a question to you some months ago asking what you were seeing and thought of Ukraine v Russia. I know you are busy.

Of course, circumstance has changed dramatically. At first, I was getting the feeling Russia was suckering the Ukraine in and would eventually strike back destroying much of the Ukraine military. With each passing week, the likelihood of such happening decreases.

Russia still has a card they could use to push Ukraine back if it becomes too aggressive. A small nuclear device could be used. The moment has not arrived when Russia feels so threatened.

Thanks for the post.
Fred C. Dobbs says:

September 18, 2022 at 10:25 pm

The existence of nuclear weapons has always (since 1949 or so) meant that such weapons could never be used, as it would mean doomsday for us all. Shall we find out if this is true?

It might seem that their use is inevitable. Why wait for some giant asteroid to take us out, eh?

Shall we prove once and for all that humankind are really incredible fools.
- Fred C. Dobbs says:
  
  September 18, 2022 at 10:41 pm
  
  There is a sort of reality extant which dictates that since nuclear weapons exist they must never be used just so that doomsday can be avoided. That must not be abrogated. (A sort of Gentlemen’s Agreement?)
  
  It does mean that war-making activities must be adhered to that are short of total destruction and corresponding enormous casualty figures. We seem to have no trouble coming up with technology to support this. Perhaps we will pursue this until the devastated survivors demand to be finished off with an appropriate nuclear coup-de-grace, a sort of logical conclusion.
  
  Perhaps it won’t be any worse than the fall of Western civilization which came after the end of the Roman Empire. Realistically, those of us alive today will be none the wiser.
Fred C. Dobbs says:

September 21, 2022 at 5:40 am

Putin’s remarks escalate a tense showdown with the West

NY Times – Sep 21

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia accelerated his war effort in Ukraine on Wednesday, announcing a new mobilization campaign that would call up roughly 300,000 additional soldiers while also directly challenging the West’s support for Ukraine with a veiled threat of using nuclear weapons.

In a rare videotaped address to the nation, Mr. Putin stopped short of declaring a full, national draft but instead called for a “partial mobilization” of people with military experience. Though Moscow’s troops have recently suffered humiliating losses on the battlefield, he said that Russia’s goals in Ukraine had not changed and that the move was “necessary and urgent” because the West had “crossed all lines” by providing sophisticated weapons to Ukraine.

The speech was an apparent attempt to reassert his authority over an increasingly chaotic war that has undermined his leadership both at home and on the global stage. It also escalated the tense showdown with Western nations that have bolstered Ukraine with weapons, money and intelligence that have contributed to Ukraine’s recent successes in reclaiming swaths of territory in the northeast. …
- Fred C. Dobbs says:
  
  September 21, 2022 at 5:42 am
  
  Mr. Putin accused the United States and Europe of engaging in “nuclear blackmail” against his country and warned that Russia had “lots of weapons” of its own.
  
  “To those who allow themselves such statements about Russia, I want to remind you that our country also has various means of destruction, and some components are more modern than those of the NATO countries,” he said.
  
  He reaffirmed his support for referendums hastily announced on Tuesday that have set the stage for Mr. Putin to declare that occupied Ukrainian territory has become part of Russia. That annexation could potentially come as soon as next week.
  
  Pro-Kremlin analysts and officials have said that at that point, any further Ukrainian military action on those territories could be considered an attack on Russia itself; Mr. Putin did not spell that out, but warned that he was ready to use all of the weapons in Russia’s arsenal to protect what the Kremlin considered Russian territory.
  
  “If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people,” he said. “This is not a bluff.” …
  - Fred C. Dobbs says:
    
    September 21, 2022 at 5:43 am
    
    In announcing a call-up of soldiers, Mr. Putin was also responding to those in Russia who support the war but have criticized the Kremlin for not devoting the resources and personnel necessary to wage an all-out fight. Mr. Putin had previously avoided conscription in an effort to keep the war’s hardships as distant as possible from ordinary Russians, but the recent battlefield setbacks, and the drumbeat from pro-war nationalists for a more robust effort, apparently changed the calculation.
    
    In a subsequent speech, Russia’s defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, put the number of new call-ups at 300,000 people, all of them with some military experience. He said that students would not be called up to fight and that conscripts would not be sent to the “special operation zone,” the way the Kremlin refers to the war, though observers were skeptical of that claim. …