– by New Deal democrat
Initial jobless claims rose 6,000 to 260,000 last week. More importantly, the 4 week average, which has been rising relentlessly, rose another 6,000 as well to 254,750, an 8 month high. Continuing claims also rose 48,000 to 1,417,000, the highest since April:
Initial claims have usually risen by 15% or more over its low, and turned higher YoY before a recession has begun. There is a clear uptrend in all the numbers, with the 4 week average of initial claims over 50% higher than its low. Claims remain on track to turn higher YoY in November, which would signal an imminent recession.
To reiterate what I’ve said several times in the past two weeks, I anticipate (more likely than not) a slight upturn in the unemployment rate in tomorrow’s jobs report.