Biden wants to give Putin an off ramp
From Reuters:
U.S. President Joe Biden said on Monday he is worried that Russian President Vladimir Putin does not have a way out of the Ukraine war, and Biden said he was trying to figure out what to do about that.
. . .
Biden said Putin is a very calculating man and the problem he worries about now is that the Russian leader “doesn’t have a way out right now, and I’m trying to figure out what we do about that.”
As far as I can tell, Biden has done a very good job navigating this terrible crisis, but he did err in calling Putin a war criminal and saying he cannot remain in power. Putin is a war criminal, but he can and quite likely will remain in power.
It’s largely up to Russia and Ukraine to end the war, to decide what kind of peace to accept and what kind of stories they are willing to tell to end the war. If Putin wants to claim that the war was a defensive action and Ukraine agrees to some kind of security assurances for Russia to help validate this story, well, why not? For his part, Biden needs to prepare Americans to live with Putin for a few more years, because that is likely the cost of a non-catastrophic outcome.
And ultimately our goal should be to nudge Russia onto a less authoritarian trajectory. It seems to me that this will require assuring Russia that we want it to rejoin the international community and have no designs on its territory. The allure of totalitarianism will remain strong as long as Russia feels under threat. But this is way over my pay grade.
Dream On. Putin will only take an ‘off ramp’ when he realizes he cannot win the war. Not a moment before.
Seems to me it is difficult to say “have no designs on it’s territory” with respect to Russia – which defines it territory differently than the rest of the world does.
LOL ~ most of which it has a tenuous grasp on …
Ten Bears
I saw a snippet of a movie yesterday. Clint Eastwood and a guy named Ten Bears. That You?
No. Call-sign, helicopter crew, fifty years ago …
almost as good.
[actually, better, but for the sake of the joke…]
Eric Kramer
probably over my pay-grade too, especially after i realized Biden was doing a better job than i would have [probably. i am not entirely sure a display of overwheming force befor Putin crossed the line would not have given P. cause to rethink. or, given the killing in Ukraine, that an overwhelming use of force the hour P.’s army crossed the line wouldn’t have stopped him in his tracks. But by then the threat of nukes had to be taken seriously. Maybe it still does. Maybe it still will if an off-ramp just gives P. time to fix his mistakes and try again.]
Chris Herbert
P will take an off ramp before he “realizes” he can’t win, if it gives him time to reorganize and try again. Maybe we could use that same time to persuade him it’s not worth trying. or maybe just the drift of things over time will result in no second round.
reason
good point.
Eric Kramer
probably over my pay-grade too, especially after i realized Biden was doing a better job than i would have [probably. i am not entirely sure a display of overwheming force befor Putin crossed the line would not have given P. cause to rethink. or, given the killing in Ukraine, that an overwhelming use of force the hour P.’s army crossed the line wouldn’t have stopped him in his tracks. But by then the threat of nukes had to be taken seriously. Maybe it still does. Maybe it still will if an off-ramp just gives P. time to fix his mistakes and try again.]
Chris Herbert
P will take an off ramp before he “realizes” he can’t win, if it gives him time to reorganize and try again. Maybe we could use that same time to persuade him it’s not worth trying. or maybe just the drift of things over time will result in no second round.
reason
good point.
Close enough for government work :<)
Guaranteeing territorial integrity sounds great, but only if both parties agree that both parties are allowed to hold sovereign territory. The Russian media piece on eliminating Ukraine was horrifying, and if the general Russian public is anywhere close to that extreme, no lasting peace is going to be possible for a long time, regardless of the military positions. The Ukrainians have atrocities they will remember for generations, and not including the one(s) they already remembered from the Stalin years.
I am afraid the situation will be more like the middle east than not, just more sporadic and more lethal when the fighting breaks out.
Or if Russia decides that the elimination of Ukraine, the Ukrainians, and the Ukrainian language is the only thing it will accept. Also known as WWIII.
i suspect on if Russia actually recognizes anyone else’s territory (unless they absolutely have too…i.e. they might recognize US territory at times….just not always. also depends on what is meant by recognizing other territory
Russian history will show that Putin won.
Russian history showed the Czars were winners until the Bolsheviks. Russian history showed that Stalin was a winner until Khrushchev. Russian history showed that the USSR was a winner until Gorbachev. Remind me why I should care what Russian history claims for itself.
Reminder:
people tend to beieve what they are told in school, especially about their national myth.
you may be sure the next Putin will have grown up believing in the national myth. Even if he does not exactly believe it when he is old and sophisticated, it will inform his very finger tips, underlie his every thought.
Fuck Putin.
No negotiations until Ukraine has expelled Russian (Nazi) army from all of Ukraine.
Then, negotiations begin about Ukraine’s annexation of Belarus.
Arne et al.
I was thinking that too. But I understand the Hopi think they can wait us out.
[I had a history book in high school tht showed us a map of how close to Russia Alaska is…to show us what a bad idea it was to buy it. Meanwhile I’m sure Putin figures we stole it. Not only did we not pay anywhere near what it was worth, the Czar had no right to sell it.]
Coberly,
The Hopi understand the inevitability of our ways. Eventually they will be proven correct, but who knows how long that may take. The Hopi know that the US is koyaanisqatsi.
Ron,
I stand in awe. I won’t even ask for a translation, I can guess.
The problem for the Hopi is that we might do something that takes the rest of the world with us. Or we might elect a government that decides there might be oil, or gold, or uranium, or lithium, or… under Hopi land.
Cob,
Yes sir. Exactly.
Meanwhile, the rational solution is for Russia to lease a base for a port in Odessa and a right of way on a railroad to get there. You’d think the guy never heard of capitalism.
Perhaps along the same lines, a ruler (I forget his name, somewhere in Eastern Turkey about 500 B.C.) was beten in a war with the Persians (I think). He was talking with the Persin king when there was a lot of noise outside, He asked is conqueror, “what’s that noise?” Conquerer said, “my troops are destroying your city.” “No, your majesty, they are destroying your city.”
I guess Putin never read that story.
It was Croessus of Lydia talking to Cyrus of Persia. The city was Sardis..actually in the western part of what is now Turkey. story is in Herodotus, but not so easy to find on Google.