RJS, MarketWatch 666 4th Quarter GDP Grew at a 6.9% Rate, Revised from a 7.0% Rate, as PCE Revised Lower The Third Estimate of our 4th Quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis indicated that our real output of goods and services grew at a 6.9% rate in the quarter, revised from the 7.0% growth rate reported […]
The worse the outcome of a Russian victory in Ukraine, the stronger the case for providing Ukraine with the weapons and supplies it needs to defeat the Russian invasion. Russian atrocities clearly strengthen the case for arming Ukraine. The very real prospect of ethnic genocide following a Russian victory strengthens the case further: Plus Russia […]
The Elixir of Commerce McCulloch, J. R. (John Ramsay). Outlines of political economy: being a republication of the article upon that subject contained in the Edinburgh Supplement to the Encyclopedia Britannica: together with notes explanatory and critical, and a summary of the science / by John M’Vickar. New York, 1825. The Making Of The Modern World. […]
Consumer spending continues OK, while income continues its seemingly relentless decline Nominally personal income rose 0.5%, and spending rose 0.2% in February. That’s the good news. The bad news is the personal consumption deflator, i.e., the relevant measure of inflation, rose 0.6%, so real income declined -01%, and real personal spending declined -0.4%. While both […]
The Moral Philosophers’ Stone: A Compleat History of ‘A Certain Quantity of Labour to be Performed’ Two weeks ago Back in 2011 a hunch about Charles Dickens and Edward Carleton Tufnell led me to the discovery of what I surmised might be the prototype of the idea that has come to be known to economists as […]
Jobless claims continue near or at record lows Initial claims (blue) rose to 14,000 to 202,000, just above last week’s 50 year low. The 4 week average (red) declined 3, 500 to 208,500 (vs. the pandemic low of 199,750 on December 25). Continuing claims (gold, right scale) declined 35,000 to 1,307,000, the lowest number since […]
RJS, Focus on Fracking US oil supplies are at a 14 – year low; commercial crude supply at a 42 month low, SPR at a 19½ year low; total oil + products supplies at a 95 month low The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the […]
Similar to 1973, we are faced with an energy crisis or a coming one. Our usage/demand is outstripping supply. The nation is a bit more prepared this time. I am not seeing the long lines waiting to add a couple of gallons of gasoline to top off. We have done a lot since 1973 in […]
by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for March 28 – April 1 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The big news of the week was the spreading yield curve inversion in the Treasury market.* Needless to say, that puts another bullet in the body of the long leading forecast – […]
The Road to SerfRanddom I have always enjoyed chapter 10 of Friedrich Hayek’s Road to Serfdom — “Why the worst get on top.” Always referring to the last quarter century or so since I first read it. Hayek’s argument struck me immediately as watertight but I was puzzled that he seemed to exempt his own preferred collective from his argument. […]