BA.2 likely only causes a ripple
Coronavirus dashboard for April 5: BA.2 likely only causes a ripple; and on track for record low daily deaths
This is a good time to look at the impact – or, better speaking, the lack thereof – of the BA.2 Omicron variant in the US.
Nationwide the 7 day average was 28,961 yesterday:

This is the lowest since last July, and lower than all but about 3.5 months since the end of March 2020. Only late spring 2020 and from mid-May through mid-July 2021 were lower. In other words, on a national level, there is no BA.2 wave whatsoever yet.
The above graph comes from The NY Times because the State of Kentucky decided to make an enormous data dump yesterday (like 190,000 cases and 2900 deaths!) yesterday, which is ruining the comparisons on my typical data source, 91-Divoc.
Omitting the South (and so KY), here are the regional breakdowns in cases, as well as NY, NJ, and MA, 3 of the States in the Northeast where there *has* been something of a BA.2 wave:

Note that for the Northeast as a whole, and NY in particular, cases are beginning to level off after 3 weeks. I mention this because the BA.2 wave in Europe has set the pattern for BA.2 impacts. Below are cases in the 5 big countries in Europe, as well as the EU as a whole:

The BA.2 waves started between the end of February through the first week in March. In every country but Germany, they have already peaked. And Germany is misleading because they had a data dump 6 days ago. Without it, cases there would only be where they were 2 weeks ago. In other words, in Europe BA.2 waves, where they occurred, have only lasted 2.5-3.5 weeks.
Further, in Europe, the BA.2 waves generally peaked once the variant reached the level of 80%-90% of all cases. With that in mind, here is today’s update from the CDC of variance prevalence in the US, showing that BA.2 is not 72% of all cases, having risen about 15% in each of the past two weeks:

And here their map of the regional breakdown:

BA.2 makes up 75% of all cases on the West Coast (where there has been no discernible wave whatsoever) and 84% in the Northeast (New England + NY and NJ).
The Northeast is going to hit 90% or more BA.2 prevalence within a week. Above I mentioned that cases in the Northeast look like they are beginning to level off. I expect a peak to be obvious there within a week to 10 days. The rest of the country is probably about one or two weeks behind that.
Turning to hospitalization admissions, they are at their lowest level ever during the pandemic, averaging 10,744/day during the past week:

And finally, here are deaths, currently averaging 604:

This is the lowest level since last August, and lower than all but 4 months of the past two years.
In conclusion, it now looks nearly certain that, on a national level, at worst there is going to be just a BA.2 ripple, and maybe just a long tail of a very slow decline from 30,000 cases daily.
Further, while deaths have declined at a far slower rate than cases, because cases are down over 96% from their Omicron high, and at peak there were only 2600 deaths a day from Omicron, a 96% decline in deaths would take us down to only about 100 per day. And because victims are typically hospitalized before they succumb, and hospitalizations are at new record lows, this further supports the hypothesis that we are perhaps only a month away from a new record low in daily deaths from COVID.
A New Covid Mystery
NY Times – David Leonhardt – April 6
Why haven’t cases started rising again in the US?
The US has tracked Europe so many times that I suspect a reporting issue. Possibly people in the United States are now more likely to home test or just not test at all and “ride it out” without leaving any record of infection? Maybe people are getting fatalistic over this virus: getting the vaccine doesn’t keep you from getting it and not getting the vaccine is by no means a high risk of death (for most) and not a lot of talk about the Merck pill as being pretty cheap and always given out. Maybe incentives to get involved with healthcare feel low for many people now. Lot of people I bet have heard from friends about how they went to Urgent Care and were told ‘well stay home and take Tylenol when the aches get bad or the fever is uncomfortable and in 5 days or so you likely will be okay’ and then paid their 20% copay on the $170 consultation. Then they decide, ‘well that is an easy $34 to save….almost half a tank of gas!’ I am certainly one of those people, although I have not been in the situation (yet).
The testing of asymptomatic individuals is an environmental thing, either as required by employer or as a quotient of hypochondria stimulation from densely populated general living conditions shopping, commuting, working, or living in a high rise. My work at home wife and I live far from the madding crowd and have had neither symptoms nor tests.
US Sewer Data Warns of a New Bump in Covid Cases
Bloomberg -March 14
i’d be more inclined to trust the sewer data than the published national data aggregated from reports by the states…ie, it’s unlikely that the sewer data will suddenly include an “enormous data dump of 190,000 cases and 2900 deaths” it had missed…
ok, Fred, i checked on the Massachusetts sewers for you…
how does that compare with what you’re hearing from official sources?
I will trust the waste water data— everything else is suspect. My only issue is whether to get the second booster now or wait a little bit so if another surge hits in the fall I have a bit more resistance, particularly if the GOP cuts off government funding of vaccines by then.
Terry,
My wife and I have been having that discussion too. Other considerations include our social calendar and the tendency for the general public to engage in over optimistic disregard for safety worsened by the coming of summer. Mask wearing has fallen dramatically here already. Also, the next couple of months are loaded with wedding invitations, only one of which my wife and her sister will attend, but it will be a big affair as their family always does and it will be in CT. This fall we are vacationing alone at a rental condo on the NC OBX. We will dine out only two or three times over our two week stay as I cook better than most pro chefs.
Ron, Sounds like my wife’s and my life. We have limited our travel and social life considerably, even after being vaccinated and boosted once, but have noted that almost no one is masking anymore in public places. I am a decent cook but I do miss people cooking for me and cleaning up afterwards.😊
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/richmond-city-virginia-covid-cases.html
Tracking Coronavirus in Richmond, Va.: Latest Map and Case Count
Updated April 7, 2022
Latest trends
another reason the official national totals can be considered suspect is the large number of recent high profile cases that have hit the news; ie, Obama, Hillary Clinton, Kamela Harris’s husband, Jen Psaki, and now Nancy Pelosi…
these are people who are being tested regularly; the rest of the country aren’t bothering to test for mild symptoms, or are testing at home and not being counted in the official stats..