Hopeful New Year, New Deal democrat
In view of the continued conflagration of the COVID pandemic, I am eschewing the traditional “Happy New Year!” salutation as we end 2021 and begin 2022 in favor of the above “Hopeful New Year.” I always try to stick with the data – one of the favorite things anyone has ever said about my writing is that I appear to be “praeternaturally detached” – and that almost always staying away from the “We’re DOOOMED!!!” references, because there is always some sort of reason for hope out there, even in the darkest times.
Pandemics do not go on forever. Even before vaccinations, eventually sicknesses got around to infecting everybody who was susceptible, and ran out of quick kills. This one will be no different. As I wrote the other day, my best guess is that about 40% of the unvaccinated have already been infected. Omicron is almost certainly going to be awful in January, but on the other side, a lot more of the unvaccinated are going to have some resistance. More people will get vaccinated; better treatments will be found, and even more thorough and lasting vaccinations are likely to be ready. So I remain hopeful that 2022 will see the pandemic beginning to fade, maybe as early as this spring.
The economy is humming along nicely. We have a competent President, who displays empathy and common decency.
So there is every reason to hope. And that is my getting: Hopeful New Year!
P.S. On a more prosaic note, my “Weekly Indicators” post will probably go up tomorrow, and my report card for my 2021 forecasts at some point by next week. See you then.