Whole Lotka Shakin’ Goin’ On
Whole Lotka Shakin’ Goin’ On
In a 1967 festschrift for Maurice Dobb, Richard Goodwin published an influential paper, “A Growth Cycle” on the “class struggle” model of cycles in economic growth. I only became aware of this famous paper because it had occurred to me that the dynamics of relative surplus population, necessary labour time, and socially necessary labour time might resemble a Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model.
Goodwin’s model dealt ultimately with the relationship between wages and profits, which seems like a logical place to start. But I think it is wrong. In my view — and interpretation of Marx — a more fundamental disequilibrium exists between labour capacity and employed labour power. There is always a relative surplus population (industrial reserve army) in capital and fluctuations in its size regulate the supply and demand for labour power and thus the value of the aggregate “wages fund.”
I suspect that profits (or surplus value?) could be brought into a labour capacity/socially necessary labour time model through something like a predator/prey/parasite analysis, with the surplus value being “parasitic” rather than “predatory.” The implication of my alternative model is unusual — “class struggle” appears in it as endogenous to labour — the counterpart to competition between firms.
I don’t do mathematical modelling so if there is anyone who does and finds these comments of interest, I would love to see what you come up with.
Sandwich
The topic is beyond my practical knowledge and would require a primer on econometric modeling on my part which was left behind a couple of decades ago as I dealt with people who care not for it.
This is an interesting relationship.
“the dynamics of relative surplus population, necessary labour time, and socially necessary labour time”
It is out of my skill set, too. But Steve Keen’s Minsky modelling program may help. His basic model is based on Goodwin’s. I’ve started to learn how to use the program so hopefully I can make the modifications needed to explore those dynamics of “surplus population, necessary labour time and socially necessary labour time.” Keen’s program provides an object oriented systems dynamic canvas. In plain language that means the equations appear as objects with recognizable names linked together with wires, so you get a visualization of the relationships between them instead of a list of equations filled with Greek letters that you have to keep in your head. I hope that makes sense?
Sandwich:
It does. I took a course in Econometrics at the Masters level which served me little while working in Supply Chain. What was said immediately made sense to me. Now, it needs to be broken down into a common language to be understood.
I’m sure it can be modeled but what does it explain when politics puts thumbs on the scale?
Daniel,
I have to struggle with that question every time I try to understand what is going on or to explain my interpretation. We live in an immense propaganda machine that doesn’t appear to have to worry about “dissent” because it drowns out everything and even appropriates the language and tools of criticism to do it. I did my master’s thesis on narrative analysis back in the 1980s and now every reactionary screed starts out by denouncing “the narrative,” which is presumably “woke” and dominates the MSM, etc.
The secret to the propaganda machine, of course, is that THERE IS NO NARRATIVE. Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia. So people can cling to whatever shabby “counter-narrative” they find comforting.
I’m not sure I have the answer. I just carry on trying to make sense of it.
Sandwich:
It is too the point, where people just lie all the time in their narrative. They know it is not true, are proven to be wrong, and they continue with the lie. What is the punisHment for a lie?
Loss of integrity? Shunning? Banishment? There are so many of them, it does not matter. They continue the lie just like Meadows, Jordan, McConnell, etc.
MI Represntative Upton with the help of Kingston blocked the Risk Corridor Program by adding a small paragraph in the Crominbus budget bill of 2014. Healthcare Insurance prices went up, Coops went bankrupt, Companies left the ACA, and people scrambled to get different insurance.
Did Repubs care, not a wit, and they act like “oh well.”
The Michigan belligernet protested at the state capitol building in the chambers carrying their weapons into chambers . The state police would not force them out and many government officials were intimidated. In the end some of the same plotted a planned akidnapping of Gov. Whitmer.
Shirkey and Chatfield went to the trump hotel to discuss overturning 150,000 votes in favor of Biden. Done during the height of the Covid epidemic. Drinking champaign that night ti full view. How do you do this and maintain a thread of integrity?
What we are dealing with are people who do not care and people who do not realize they will lose in the end because they do not wish to be told what is necessary to survive, flourish, etc.
There is no narrative when it is all lies.
Margaret Meade postulated that a breakdown of the father/daughter incest taboo presaged a general collapse of social integrity and morality. Perhaps we should have been watching for the analogues.