Europe’s already fragile economic recovery is at risk of being undermined by a fourth wave of coronavirus infections now dousing the continent, as governments impose increasingly stringent health restrictions that could reduce foot traffic in shopping centers, discourage travel and thin crowds in restaurants, bars and ski resorts.
Austria has imposed the strictest measures, mandating vaccinations and imposing a nationwide lockdown that began on Monday. But economic activity will also be dampened by other safety measures — from vaccine passports in France and Switzerland to a requirement to work from home four days a week in Belgium.
“We are expecting a bumpy winter season,” said Stefan Kooths, a research director of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy in Germany. “The pandemic now seems to be affecting the economy more negatively than we originally thought.” …
The tough lockdowns that swept Europe during the early months of the pandemic last year ended up shrinking economic output by nearly 15 percent. Buoyed by a raft of government support to businesses and the unemployed, most of those countries managed to scramble back and recoup their losses after vaccines were introduced, infection rates tumbled and restrictions eased.
In September, economists optimistically declared that Europe had reached a turning point. In recent weeks, the main threats to the economy seemed to stem from a post-lockdown exuberance that was causing supply-chain bottlenecks, energy-price increases and inflation worries. And widespread vaccinations were expected to defang the pandemic’s bite so that people could continue to freely gather to shop, dine out and travel.
What was not expected was a series of tough government restrictions. A highly contagious strain — aided by some resistance to vaccines and flagging support for other anti-infection measures like masks — has enabled the coronavirus to make a comeback in some regions.
“The lower vaccination rates are, the gloomier the economic outlook is for this winter term,” Mr. Kooths said.
Roughly two-thirds of Europe’s population has been vaccinated, but rates vary widely from country to country. Only a quarter of the population in Bulgaria has received a shot, for example, compared with 81 percent in Portugal, according to the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control
Reconciliation and Sausage Making Maybe someone can enlighten me on this subject?
We have been kicking around this troubled Build Back Better (BBB) legislation for months now and it is headed for more trouble in the Senate. What troubles me is that there’s a reason no one really knows what is in it or how much it really costs. The legislation has been developed totally in secret somewhere in the backrooms of the Capitol, by who knows who, with no public or objective expert input, no debate, no real public hearings. And, who decided that these are the elements & details that should be in this game-changing, massive, transformative piece of legislation. Sure, most people know of some things that are included, but I doubt that even close observers know the full breadth of the bill and particularly the details. Yes, I’m aware that the 2,500-page bill, H.R.5376, as passed by the House 220-213, is now available and persons may view the details for themselves.
The bill, which is expected to cost somewhere around $2 trillion (down from $3.5T+) includes a broad range of programs and issues from climate change to preschool. For example, the bill includes:
management of the National Forest System; job placement and career services; safe drinking water, energy-efficiency, and weatherization projects; electric vehicles and zero-emission, heavy-duty vehicles; public health infrastructure and supply chain resiliency; housing, rental, and homeowner assistance programs; cybersecurity programs; tribal infrastructure, housing, environmental, and health programs; wildfire prevention, drought relief, conservation efforts, and climate change research; small business assistance and development; transit services and clean energy projects in low-income communities; and infrastructure and administration of the Department of Veterans Affairs; up to six semesters of free community college; free child care for children under the age of six; free universal preschool services; health benefits for eligible individuals who reside in states that have not expanded Medicaid; establish a methane fee for certain petroleum and natural gas facilities; expand Medicare to cover dental, hearing, and vision care; provide certain aliens with a path to permanent resident status (e.g., those who entered the United States as minors); provide up to 12 weeks of paid family and medical leave; restructure and increase the tax rates for certain corporations and high-income individuals (e.g., individuals with income over $400,000); and require the Department of Health and Human Services to negotiate maximum prices for certain brand-name drugs under Medicare.
I have been observing the legislative process for years and have never seen legislation managed this way, particularly such a massive, transformative, multi-faceted bill that is going to change the USA forever. While I may agree conceptually with most elements of the bill, I don’t profess to know all of the alternatives, tradeoffs and details of how those elements should be addressed to solve problems. Obviously, it’s too late now to correct the development process for this legislation, but it’s somewhat distressing that it has come this far without more criticism or warnings from serious political observers and participants. The primary justification for this massive, diverse legislation has been:
“it’s what the President campaigned and ran on, and what he promised the electorate.”
I would submit that that rationale is complete B.S. Candidates run on concepts, ideas, platforms and character. People did not vote for the now available details of BBB and the narrow, electoral election results did not clearly reveal any mandates. Campaign promises and ideas are normally turned into detailed legislation that has gone through some kind of public, transparent legislative process.
Additionally, it is rare, if not unprecedented, to combine this many diverse subjects into one piece of legislation. The normal process used to be called “regular order” but that has been bastardized in recent years; but not to this extent, where one party writes legislation in a backroom with no public input or oversight, and passes and enacts it under the guise of a “budget-related” bill, through a convoluted process known as “reconciliation.”
While they may be out there, I haven’t seen much scholarly or pundit discussion of this process aspect of the legislation. When you think about it — it’s fairly disturbing and should be called out for debate by serious political observers and participants. What kind of precedent is this going to set for future legislation? If it proceeds as it is; and it appears it will, the comprehensive scope of the bill reveals there is almost no limit to the extent of future legislative subjects that could be proposed or addressed. Again, no matter how much I may agree with the legislative concepts of BBB, isn’t it presumptuous of Democratic insiders and President Biden that they can just tell us all what we need and provide the details and funding amounts with no input, discussion or scrutiny. And, oh yeah, lurking in the wings of this process is some unknown, “parliamentarian”, that is appointed by the party in power and who determines if the proposed legislation is really budget-related.
Unfortunately, we only have one of the two major political parties that is focused on governing, preserving democracy and addressing the major issues of the day. The other party is focused on political power, control, and disruption of democracy. Also unfortunate is the paradoxical political anomaly that may grant Congressional control to that “other” party along with the power of reconciliation. Maybe we should be discussing this.
That does happen. I forget which works best on MS Word if you are doing a C&P. It may be dbl spacing. I gave it a shot at editing. Without knowing exactly what you wanted, I think I captured a reasonable edit.
Maybe this will answer yours and other’s question? I consider Fitch to be non-political, yes? Other bloggers will be capitalizing on the news media selling trash commentaries.
Run, Thanks for the paragraph edits. I was not commenting or expressing concern about costs and revenues so much, but on the process by which the bill was developed without public or expert input, discussion or scrutiny.
It is a good comment. I wanted to make sure people would read it and not ignore it due to being stuck together. The other part is what people do not believe the BBB will bring to reality, revenues will exceed deficits and the bill will pay for itself over time.
Ron (RC) Weakley (A.K.A., Darryl For A While At EV) says:
Any public infrastructure bill with both time and expenditure outlays on such a large scale will have a life of its own with passage and quite possibly a death of its own in the next federal chief executive administration. Regardless of how it scores with the budget at this time, it will be the execution far more than the legislation that determines the outcome. We have fallen far behind on maintaining basic transportation infrastructure. Electrical distribution is not up to the task at hand given the shift to renewables each of which have localities of key inputs required for production (i.e., where the sun shines brightest, where the wind blows more, where the tides runs strongest, etc.).
With unemployment this low then making it easier for two parents to work instead of one, a habit many households developed during the pandemic, will increase the labor force participation rate as children are returning to in-school learning and only daycare and new tricks learned are holding that 2 million women that left the workforce during the pandemic from returning.
For the federal fiscal balance, then that will depend upon whether future administrations will be up to the job of taking the bastard out of the Keynesianism, which is highly unlikely. It is more likely that corporate balance sheets will be substantially improved while finding ever more creative ways of cutting Uncle out of its due ROI. In any case though, Ordinary Joe is planning on putting up a lot off his credit card into the task of catching up for past under-investment in public goods. Even with the bastard attached, then a big Keynes is still better than no Keynes, particularly when Uncle is not just using Keynes to make more bombers and bombs.
Ron (RC) Weakley (A.K.A., Darryl For A While At EV) says:
To be clear as we bears are a mixed crowd, then Keynes stated that the role of the state was to invest in that which was needed to maintain full employment. He was no fan of financialization and trade deficits as he has seen his native England diminish its economic standing as employment was dominated by finance and retail. IOW, a healthy economy dedicates resources to producing. The real bastard that dominated the economy against the wisdom of Keynes though was that borrowing against our own trade deficits was never repaid. China gladly buys our sovereign debt alongside finance because together they own our economy. Keynes is rolling over in his grave.
Administration officials blame the Delta variant for a prolonged stretch of consumer spending on goods, rather than services, pushing up prices and creating a conundrum for the Fed.
President Biden’s top economists have worried from the beginning of his administration that rising inflation could hamstring the economy’s recovery from recession, along with his presidency. Last spring, Mr. Biden’s advisers made a forecasting error that helped turn their fears into reality, a calculation that spread to this week’s decision to renominate the Federal Reserve chair. …
Administration officials overestimated how quickly Americans would start spending money in restaurants and theme parks, and they underestimated how many people wanted to order new cars and couches.
Mr. Biden’s advisers, along with economists and some scientists, believed that widespread availability of coronavirus vaccinations would speed the return to prepandemic life, one in which people dined out and filled hotel rooms for conferences, weddings and other in-person events.
Instead, the emergence of the Delta variant of the virus over the summer and fall slowed that return to normalcy. Americans stayed at home, where they continued to buy goods online, straining global supply chains and sending the price of almost everything in the economy skyward.
“Because of the strength of our economic recovery, American families have been able to buy more products,” Mr. Biden said this month at the Port of Baltimore. “And — but guess what? They’re not going out to dinner and lunch and going to the local bars because of Covid. So what are they doing? They’re staying home, they’re ordering online, and they’re buying product.”
That view is the closest thing the administration has offered to an explanation for why the White House was surprised by the size and durability of a price surge that has hurt Mr. Biden’s poll numbers and imperiled part of his economic agenda in Congress. From the administration’s perspective, the problem is not that there is too much money sloshing around, as Republicans and some economists insist, but that consumers are throwing an unexpectedly large amount of that money at a narrow set of things to buy. …
there was a time when i might have agreed with you. but having seen what the elecorate is, what it has become, I see nothing to be gained by letting them discuss the details of the bill.
As you point out, the Pres weas elected not on the details, but on the general idea. i don’t exactly dislike some of what I see, but I wonder if it is wise politically to go for a hail mary, when three yards will get you a first down.
I am absolutely sure the voters did not vote for a civil war and emancipation, I am abolutely sure the voters did not vote, the first time, for the details of the new deal. I am absolutely sure the new Republicans stand for nothing but disruption and hate….which you can always get enough of the people enough of the time to vote for.
Ron (RC) Weakley (A.K.A., Darryl For A While At EV) says:
Happy leftover turkey day. My new EZ Bake Oven (what my wife and I are calling our 24″ replacement wall oven) actually did a very decent job after I removed the back section so that the remaining breast would fit with cover in the small roaster that would fit. Today I will roast the back skin and bones Cajun seasoned on a broiler pan. My wife only eats breast meat which we will have left over for a week.
Keep up the good work, but don’t forget to care for yourself. We may care a lot about what happens in our world, but our world cares no more for us than it cares for anyone else. So, in this season of thanks then I thank the world for air, water, sun, and gravity.
As Virus Cases Rise in Europe, an Economic Toll Returns
you ready for this, Fred?
i just checked one of my news feeds, thinking i was heading for bed…
Britain says new 19 variant is the most significant yet found
Asian FX, stocks drop on new coronavirus variant concerns
China stocks close lower on 19 concerns
India rupee at 3-week low, yields fall on new COVID variant concerns
Euro zone government bond yields drop on 19 variant fears
South African markets tumble on new 19 variant
Reconciliation and Sausage Making Maybe someone can enlighten me on this subject?
We have been kicking around this troubled Build Back Better (BBB) legislation for months now and it is headed for more trouble in the Senate. What troubles me is that there’s a reason no one really knows what is in it or how much it really costs. The legislation has been developed totally in secret somewhere in the backrooms of the Capitol, by who knows who, with no public or objective expert input, no debate, no real public hearings. And, who decided that these are the elements & details that should be in this game-changing, massive, transformative piece of legislation. Sure, most people know of some things that are included, but I doubt that even close observers know the full breadth of the bill and particularly the details. Yes, I’m aware that the 2,500-page bill, H.R.5376, as passed by the House 220-213, is now available and persons may view the details for themselves.
The bill, which is expected to cost somewhere around $2 trillion (down from $3.5T+) includes a broad range of programs and issues from climate change to preschool. For example, the bill includes:
I have been observing the legislative process for years and have never seen legislation managed this way, particularly such a massive, transformative, multi-faceted bill that is going to change the USA forever. While I may agree conceptually with most elements of the bill, I don’t profess to know all of the alternatives, tradeoffs and details of how those elements should be addressed to solve problems. Obviously, it’s too late now to correct the development process for this legislation, but it’s somewhat distressing that it has come this far without more criticism or warnings from serious political observers and participants. The primary justification for this massive, diverse legislation has been:
“it’s what the President campaigned and ran on, and what he promised the electorate.”
I would submit that that rationale is complete B.S. Candidates run on concepts, ideas, platforms and character. People did not vote for the now available details of BBB and the narrow, electoral election results did not clearly reveal any mandates. Campaign promises and ideas are normally turned into detailed legislation that has gone through some kind of public, transparent legislative process.
Additionally, it is rare, if not unprecedented, to combine this many diverse subjects into one piece of legislation. The normal process used to be called “regular order” but that has been bastardized in recent years; but not to this extent, where one party writes legislation in a backroom with no public input or oversight, and passes and enacts it under the guise of a “budget-related” bill, through a convoluted process known as “reconciliation.”
While they may be out there, I haven’t seen much scholarly or pundit discussion of this process aspect of the legislation. When you think about it — it’s fairly disturbing and should be called out for debate by serious political observers and participants. What kind of precedent is this going to set for future legislation? If it proceeds as it is; and it appears it will, the comprehensive scope of the bill reveals there is almost no limit to the extent of future legislative subjects that could be proposed or addressed. Again, no matter how much I may agree with the legislative concepts of BBB, isn’t it presumptuous of Democratic insiders and President Biden that they can just tell us all what we need and provide the details and funding amounts with no input, discussion or scrutiny. And, oh yeah, lurking in the wings of this process is some unknown, “parliamentarian”, that is appointed by the party in power and who determines if the proposed legislation is really budget-related.
Unfortunately, we only have one of the two major political parties that is focused on governing, preserving democracy and addressing the major issues of the day. The other party is focused on political power, control, and disruption of democracy. Also unfortunate is the paradoxical political anomaly that may grant Congressional control to that “other” party along with the power of reconciliation. Maybe we should be discussing this.
Unfortunately the paragraph breaks did not come through… sorry.
JP
That does happen. I forget which works best on MS Word if you are doing a C&P. It may be dbl spacing. I gave it a shot at editing. Without knowing exactly what you wanted, I think I captured a reasonable edit.
JP
Maybe this will answer yours and other’s question? I consider Fitch to be non-political, yes? Other bloggers will be capitalizing on the news media selling trash commentaries.
Change in Revenues, Spending
Run, Thanks for the paragraph edits. I was not commenting or expressing concern about costs and revenues so much, but on the process by which the bill was developed without public or expert input, discussion or scrutiny.
JP
It is a good comment. I wanted to make sure people would read it and not ignore it due to being stuck together. The other part is what people do not believe the BBB will bring to reality, revenues will exceed deficits and the bill will pay for itself over time.
JP McJ,
Any public infrastructure bill with both time and expenditure outlays on such a large scale will have a life of its own with passage and quite possibly a death of its own in the next federal chief executive administration. Regardless of how it scores with the budget at this time, it will be the execution far more than the legislation that determines the outcome. We have fallen far behind on maintaining basic transportation infrastructure. Electrical distribution is not up to the task at hand given the shift to renewables each of which have localities of key inputs required for production (i.e., where the sun shines brightest, where the wind blows more, where the tides runs strongest, etc.).
With unemployment this low then making it easier for two parents to work instead of one, a habit many households developed during the pandemic, will increase the labor force participation rate as children are returning to in-school learning and only daycare and new tricks learned are holding that 2 million women that left the workforce during the pandemic from returning.
For the federal fiscal balance, then that will depend upon whether future administrations will be up to the job of taking the bastard out of the Keynesianism, which is highly unlikely. It is more likely that corporate balance sheets will be substantially improved while finding ever more creative ways of cutting Uncle out of its due ROI. In any case though, Ordinary Joe is planning on putting up a lot off his credit card into the task of catching up for past under-investment in public goods. Even with the bastard attached, then a big Keynes is still better than no Keynes, particularly when Uncle is not just using Keynes to make more bombers and bombs.
To be clear as we bears are a mixed crowd, then Keynes stated that the role of the state was to invest in that which was needed to maintain full employment. He was no fan of financialization and trade deficits as he has seen his native England diminish its economic standing as employment was dominated by finance and retail. IOW, a healthy economy dedicates resources to producing. The real bastard that dominated the economy against the wisdom of Keynes though was that borrowing against our own trade deficits was never repaid. China gladly buys our sovereign debt alongside finance because together they own our economy. Keynes is rolling over in his grave.
The Inflation Miscalculation Complicating Biden’s Agenda
McJefferson
there was a time when i might have agreed with you. but having seen what the elecorate is, what it has become, I see nothing to be gained by letting them discuss the details of the bill.
As you point out, the Pres weas elected not on the details, but on the general idea. i don’t exactly dislike some of what I see, but I wonder if it is wise politically to go for a hail mary, when three yards will get you a first down.
I am absolutely sure the voters did not vote for a civil war and emancipation, I am abolutely sure the voters did not vote, the first time, for the details of the new deal. I am absolutely sure the new Republicans stand for nothing but disruption and hate….which you can always get enough of the people enough of the time to vote for.
Coberly,
Well said, buddy.
Happy leftover turkey day. My new EZ Bake Oven (what my wife and I are calling our 24″ replacement wall oven) actually did a very decent job after I removed the back section so that the remaining breast would fit with cover in the small roaster that would fit. Today I will roast the back skin and bones Cajun seasoned on a broiler pan. My wife only eats breast meat which we will have left over for a week.
Keep up the good work, but don’t forget to care for yourself. We may care a lot about what happens in our world, but our world cares no more for us than it cares for anyone else. So, in this season of thanks then I thank the world for air, water, sun, and gravity.
Ron
good that you are still able to re-design/re-manufacture new-days products. i find it easier to do without..or shop for old stuff.
i think you are absolutely right re air, water, sun, and gravity.
well, maybe not gravity so much.
(brings me down.)
Cob,
Yep, the gravity of the situation can be a downer at times :<)