Nobody is getting laid off: the continuing saga
Initial claims declined another 1,000 this week to 268,000, and the 4 week average declined 5,250 to 272,750, both – yet again – new pandemic lows:
For the past 50 years, initial claims have only been at these levels for 2 months at the peak of the late 1990’s tech boom, and from late 2015 to just before the pandemic in 2020.’
Continuing claims also declined 129,000 to a new pandemic low of 2,080,000:
Similarly, only a few weeks in the late 1980s, plus 2 months in 1999, plus the last 4 years of the last expansion were below this number:
I am a happily broken record: once again, the labor market remains extremely tight. For all intents and purposes, nobody is getting laid off.