Open thread October 12, 2021 Dan Crawford | October 12, 2021 5:26 am Comments (8) | Digg Facebook Twitter |
Higher min wage makes more (low wage) jobs? — Cert/recert/decert as “you like”
For states that already have $12.50 minimum wages, waiting out four years to reach a $15 federal minimum wage won’t soften job impact – because not much to soften. A 20% pay raise for a firm with typical 10%-15% labor costs could add about 2.5% to products prices (20% X 12.5%).
For $7.25 minimum wage states, doubling pay to $15 could force firms with 25% labor costs (e.g., fast food), to jump prices 25%. But even if that incurred 25% jobs losses, employees as a group would be only too happy to be 50% ahead in pay overall (200% X .75).
If lower 40 percentile wage earners (all who below $15 an hour) sell less stuff to the upper 60%, but for more money overall, their accordingly greater spending will in effect employ more jobholders than before – while the 60% will in effect employ fewer jobholders.
http://fortune.com/2015/04/13/who-makes-15-per-hour/ (2015, pay wall)
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We have to go back seven decades to find a federal minimum wage that is albeit a dollar higher than today’s minimum: $8.35 in 1950 (inflation adjusted)!
We would have to go almost as far back – to the 50s and 60s — to find a level of labor union density that could wring (as in extract) fair share for employees out of the labor (consumer) market.
Meanwhile blue collar workers are running for the Democratic Party exits at a pace threatening to remake Republican demographics look more like Democratic demographics of the 50s and 60s. Blue collar voters switching to Republican, last ten years: White 45% to 57%, Hispanic 23% to 30%, Black 5% to 9%.
(Meet the Press, Data Download – 2/21/21, 39:07 to 41:14)
A healthy rich country labor market being so far in their (our) rear view mirrors that nobody even guesses (remembers) what’s critically missing anymore — unions! Build back every bit as much labor union density as we “feel like” as quick as “we like”:
A union is a business. You should be able to open any union business you “feel like” as easily as any other business: just apply for a license for most businesses; just vote in regularly scheduled cert/recert/decert elections in all private workplaces for union businesses.
Better act in a hurry to restore these folks’ sense of their own power over their own existences — before the next would be American Mussolini turns out to be less of a buffoonish fool (who nevertheless got 74 million votes).
“Dark City” labor market
Imagine a world where buying consumer goods takes place only on Mon-Tue-Wed-Thur-Fri — and — cashing pay checks done only on Sat-Sun. (I just viewed Dark City, so I am in the mood for such a model.)
Typical employers like Target and Walgreens average 12.5% labor costs — outliers WalMart and fast food have 7% and 25% labor costs. Say, in one-single Mon-thru-Fri week, lower 40% pay employees double wages on average — up 50% at fast food, up 2 1/2 X at Walmart.
Consumer prices for goods produced by lower income workers have to rise about 12.5% across the board — demand falls 12.5% for lower pay produced goods …
… on that particular Mon-thru-Fri.
Sat comes; lower cost workers pick up their doubled pay — for producing possibly fewer goods — Mon-thru-Fri haven’t dawned yet.
Mon comes; lower pay workers take the extra money squeezed from consumers to market to purchase goods and services — probably proportionately more on goods produced by lower wage workers. Demand for lower pay produced goods rises more than 12.5%.
Put this eight-grade, market math to work for everybody whose labor the consumer might agree is worth more:
Per the Jerusalem Post, all is well in Israeli COVID progress, yet, for a country that is almost fully vaccinated and has been administering booster shots since August 1:
“Some 627 people died in August. Last September, 651 people died. The month with the highest number of deaths was January 2021, when 1,444 Israelis succumbed to COVID-19.”
The math isn’t making sense. In September over 50% of the folks who unfortunately passed were vaccinated and a good percentage, if I could upload the chart, were also boosted.
I had to poll the doctors. Er doc: “glitch in the matrix? Read this https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/08/20/1029628471/highly-vaccinated-israel-is-seeing-a-dramatic-surge-in-new-covid-cases-heres-why”
Epidemiologist: “Simpsons Paradox”
there’ a couple factors at play there; first, Delta is running rampant thru the Israeli schools, and secondly there are large family gatherings around their holidays where the kids spread the virus to their grandparents…the Pfizer vaccine wanes after about four months, and loses effectiveness faster in the elderly, so it appears they’re becoming susceptible to serious cases sooner than anyone expected…
Exactly….yet the amount of disinformation out there is staggering. A thread of truth gets woven into an elaborate antivaccinatuon, antigovernment, antiscience tirade. These people are dangerous.
Workers quitting their jobs hit a record in the U.S. in August
this story looks to be coming around again….once a year, or every so often, there is concern that this corroding old oil tanker will bust open and spill…
it’s parked offshore from the no-mans land between the belligerent Saudis and the Yemini rebels, so no one goes there…