The Dakotas already appear to be shambling towards herd immunity
Coronavirus dashboard for March 3: as good news on vaccinations accumulates, the Dakotas already appear to be shambling towards herd immunity
There is more and more good news on the vaccination front. In addition to the fact that the single-dose Johnson and Johnson vaccine has been approved, President Biden has made use of the Defense Production Act to enlist competitor Merck in additional production of the J&J vaccine. Biden also announced that there would be enough vaccine produced to supply doses for every American adult by the end of May.
Further, the pace of vaccination has picked up to new highs since the setbacks due to recent weather, with the 7 day average just short of 2 million per pay at 1.946 million as of yesterday:
And just shy of 80 million doses have been administered – 78.6 million as of yesterday:
By about Memorial Day weekend, the principal obstacle to herd immunity is going to be anti-vaxxers and other vaccine-hesitant people, primarily stupid GOPers. I wonder if by that time employers will make being vaccinated a condition of returning to work facilities.
In the meantime, one other recent development has jumped out from the graphs: it looks increasingly like both North and South Dakota have shambled towards herd immunity already. That’s because both States’ levels of total infections look close to perfect representations of an “S”-shaped type of exponential curve called a logistical curve. This occurs when a population approaches a saturation point.
Here’s the graphic evidence in a nutshell:
Both North and South Dakota have the highest rate of *confirmed* infections at roughly 13% of their entire populations.
Further, South Dakota is close to, and North Dakota is already among, the lowest 10 States for the level of new confirmed infections:
Since neither one of these two jurisdictions is exactly known for their aggressive anti-COVID restrictions, we are either seeing a recent onset of panic among the populace after their late autumn outbreaks or else we are seeing a virus that is facing an ever-thinning number of susceptible individuals.
Most notably, during the autumn outbreaks At least South Dakota had close to a 60% positivity rate among people who were tested, which went on for several weeks – where 3% is the rate at which it is thought that testing is probably picking up close to all actual infections:
In other words, during the weeks that roughly 10% of their entire populations are *confirmed* to have contracted the disease, it’s entirely likely that some multiple of that percentage were in fact infected, but either weren’t able or just didn’t bother, to get tested. If during those weeks for every one confirmed positive there were 4 actual but unconfirmed infections, then by Christmas an outright majority of the population of both North and South Dakota had actually contracted the disease.
I want to emphasize that I’m not claiming that either State has actually arrived at herd immunity yet. For that to be the case I would expect the rate of current infections to be closer to 1 in 100,000 daily than 10 in 100,000 – and I would expect to see continuing declines, which really hasn’t been the case in the past several weeks. And I am *certainly* not claiming that the result is the case of good government! Far from it, both North and South Dakota have among the highest confirmed death rates from COVID at roughly 1 death for every 500 persons, putting them in the top 10 States:
I would love to see what a comparative graph of excess deaths above normal looks like for those 10 States because I suspect that a significant part of the Dakotas’ death toll was never reported.
Here’s hoping that the vaccines get us to herd immunity before the reckless actions of Trumpist GOP governors like Abbott of Texas manage to hatch a resistant strain of the disease.
I wonder what part the population density plays in the Dakota curves. Massive land space with few people. Might be making it hard to spread.
~11 people per square mile
Total cases is about ~12% of the population in South and North Dakota which is 884M and 762M. At the rate they are going, I think a couple of more years perhaps. There are ~11 people /sq. mile.
Cases per million are 127,554 for South Dakota and 131,311 for North Dakota. They are the top two states in the US. Globally they are numbers 2 and 3 after the country of Andorra with a population of ~78,000.
You can form your own conclusions from this. The population for each state is less per square mile than other states. Both states have been battling for greater recognition, ignorance when it comes to wearing masks, and governors. Pathetic!
Meanwhile, in my county in IL only 5% of the adult population has received a vacination.
This vaccine thing in IL (and I guess elsewhere) is totally incompetent. I understand the shortage of vaccines, but the idea they can have a non functional website inferior to that of a tire store is incredible. This link will show you availability.
Only one of the 14 sites says it has available appointments. However, if you try to book an appointment it will then make you fill out 10 pieces of info, and when you complete it and hit “make appointment” it will then say “the time is unavailable. I know, I did it 35 times this AM before giving up.
Meanwhile, I had a flat tire and needed to get a replacement this week. Went to the Discount Tire website; chose a store; chose a tire; and then “make appointment. Days and times popped up. Some were marked unavailable, some were available. Whole process took about three minutes.
And these vaccine coordinators can’t have a website that can do that?
The population density of my county is about 2 people per square mile. We also have been running highest number of cases per 100K in the state and occasionally close to it in the country. Half the population lives in about a 10 mile radius, and we seem to have more than our share of anti-mask and distancing advocates. You can predict which way the case count will go by driving down Main Street and seeing how many people are not masked and close together. Everyone was saying how being rural helped us avoid Covid, which it did for about a month. Then we discovered that people here could die of it too, about a dozen in the rest home in one week. Pure carelessness let the virus in, and that was all it took.
You are going to have to take on 9 more people in your square mile. 🙂 Do you like your governor?
I wonder if by that time employers will make being vaccinated a condition of returning to work facilities.
Meanwhile, in Idaho, Republican legislators entered a bill to prohibit government employers or contractors from requiring any vaccinations or mask wearing–even hospitals and nursing homes. It passed the House.
“Giddings disagreed. “Let our people work and let our people pursue happiness,” she said. “Where there are risks, I really believe there needs to be choice.”
Rep. Karey Hanks, R-St. Anthony, said, “There are many of us who will not take vaccines. We attempt to keep our bodies healthy and believe that that is something that we need to do, and I’m not willing to take those things into my body.”
“There’s a reason soldiers go through basic training before heading into combat: Without careful instruction, green recruits armed with powerful weapons could be as dangerous to one another as to the enemy.
The immune system works much the same way. Immune cells, which protect the body from infections, need to be “educated” to recognize bad guys — and to hold their fire around civilians.
In some covid patients, this education may be cut short. Scientists say unprepared immune cells appear to be responding to the coronavirus with a devastating release of chemicals, inflicting damage that may endure long after the threat has been eliminated.
‘If you have a brand-new virus and the virus is winning, the immune system may go into an ‘all hands on deck’ response,” said Dr. Nina Luning Prak, co-author of a January study on covid and the immune system. “Things that are normally kept in close check are relaxed. The body may say, ‘Who cares? Give me all you’ve got.'” Coronavirus Deranges the Immune System in Complex and Deadly Ways
This was known way back when Covid was being looked at and how it attacks the lungs, the white cells over react to Covid creating a cytokine storm ultimately causes high fever, excessive leakiness of blood vessels, blood clotting inside the body, extremely low blood pressure, lack of oxygen and excess acidity of the blood, and build-up of fluids in the lungs. You drown in your own fluids. And if you survive, you may have serious problems for the rest of your life.
Furthermore if you believe you are done with Covid, that may not be true. Many of the Covid survivors have lingering effects from Covid or suffer damage to their bodily organs. This is not like the flu. Here is a site on Reddit where people talk about what symptoms they are experiencing after they are cured of Covid. Coronavirus Survivors
I am not pleading with you to secure yourself away from the general public and protect yourself from Covid. Quite frankly, I do not give a damn. You may be lucky and you may not. Don’t socially distance or wear a masks, I do not care, but stay in Idaho and away from me.