Vaccinations start to have a dramatic effect
Coronavirus dashboard for February 23: vaccinations start to have a dramatic effect
Totals US deaths, Cases, vaccinated one dose and two doses:
– Coronavirus confirmed deaths: 500,310
– Confirmed infections: 28,190,159
– One Dose vaccinations: 44,138,118, and
– Two Dose vaccinations: 19,438,495.
The good news is, roughly 9.5% of the US population age 18 or over has received both doses of a vaccine. Over 20% has received at least one dose.
The bad news is that we have reached the milestone of half a million dead. Further, probably at least 40,000,000 people have been infected, since many who have no or mild symptoms don’t ever get tested.
Here’s the graph of the 7 day average of new infections and deaths for the US over the last 12 weeks:
While there has been a decline of over 2/3’s in infections, and 40% in deaths, this only puts us even with the very worst levels of the summer outbreak.
But there is increasingly dramatic evidence that the vaccines are having a real impact. Since the elderly in long term care facilities were the first to be vaccinated, that is where we would first expect to see an impact. And here it is, graphically:
New infections have declined by nearly 90% in these facilities since vaccinations began, and are lower than they have been since at least 8 months ago.
Here is a similar graph from one week ago, showing the percent of all coronavirus cases that arose from long term care facilities:
The share of total cases declined by 50%. But since, over the same time span, *total* cases themselves declined 50%, that means that the total number of cases in long term care facilities declined by roughly 75%!
The situation is similar in bellwether Israel, which has delivered doses equivalent to about 80% of its total population since December. Deaths are down over 60%:
And when those who have been vaccinated are compared with those in similar situations who have not been vaccinated, the outcome is even more dramatic:
The 7 day average of those who were vaccinated declined by about 2/3’s, while the decline among those not vaccinated was only 10%.
There is simply no reasonable doubt that, as matters now stand, the vaccines are going to be very effective, probably by the Fourth of July, in nearly halting deaths due to the virus in the US – and that includes the new variant strains
The rate of decrease is spectacular; vaccines no doubt play a role. But, we are adapting, as adapt we must. If you haven’t:
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/02/15/inside-the-worst-hit-county-in-the-worst-hit-state-in-the-worst-hit-country
By Dr Atul Gawande
I saw the former head of the CDC on television the other day and he said he thought that 100 million Americans had been infected by the virus.
I think that is too high. Most states are running less than 10%.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-02/25/c_139767548.htmFebruary 25, 2021WHO experts warn health risk of “post-COVID” symptoms”The disability following SARS-CoV-2 infection lingers on for months with severe social, economic, health and occupational consequences,” warned the WHO Regional Director for Europe Hans Kluge.COPENHAGEN — As COVID-19 transmission rates seemingly decline across the European Region, the World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Director for Europe Hans Kluge expressed health concerns over “long-COVID” or “post-COVID” symptoms at a virtual press conference on Thursday.”The disability following SARS-CoV-2 infection lingers on for months with severe social, economic, health and occupational consequences,” said Kluge, who identified the issue as “a clear priority for WHO, and of the utmost importance.”According to Kluge, a total of 38 million infection cases had been registered in the European Region since the pandemic began, and “one in ten COVID-19 sufferers remain unwell after 12 weeks, and many for much longer.””Yet stories of those who should have ‘recovered’, but whose lives were still affected by debilitating symptoms soon emerged. Regrettably, some were met with disbelief or lack of understanding,” said Kluge.Professor Martin McKee, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, also speaking at the press conference, provided further insight into “post-COVID” symptoms.McKee described them as “a varying combination of overlapping symptoms, including chest and muscle pain, fatigue, shortness of breath, and what patients describe as brain fog.””Although many viral infections are self-limiting, making people feel unwell for only a few days before clearing up, others cause long-term problems. Early on, we realized that this new coronavirus was not just causing pneumonia. In some patients it was attacking many different body systems, such as the heart and blood vessels, the brain, and the kidneys,” said McKee.In response to the prevalence of the lingering after-effects of COVID-19, Kluge acknowledged that the WHO had earlier in the month “hosted a consultation on post-COVID-19 conditions, focusing on recognition, research and rehabilitation.”In addition, Kluge also confirmed that WHO Europe would soon be convening a conference with the chief medical officers of all 53 countries in the European Region to set out a regional strategy to tackle the issue.”As we learn more, we need to make sure patients who have had suspected or confirmed COVID-19, who have persistent — new or changing symptoms — should have access to follow-up care. This is where primary health-care has a particularly strong role to play,” said Kluge….