It’s by Design: Texas’ Electrical Mess
Something is funky with our comment function. They are showing up at the WP site, just not showing here today. Though, sometimes you might see them, then not. So, leave a comment. We’ll get it happening.
By now, you are aware that the problem Texas is having is because they failed to build their system to withstand cold/winter weather. That is the mechanical reason for their problem. Of course, this leads many to assume that as soon as it warms up, the power will be back on and life is good again.
Unfortunately, that does not account for all the water damage that has happened and will happen as broken plumbing thaws. It won’t just be people’s homes. I’m confident there will be news about failures within the municipal systems and of course, failures with the plumbing in the power plants including those that pump the natural gas and cool the nuclear generators. Rebuilding will take months or more. If you notice a drop in water temperature and inconsistent hot water supply, contact a professional to schedule a tankless water heater repair.
However, the issue of failure to build the system for the environment is not the real tragedy here. The true horror is the economic model sold to the citizens. Free Market. Yup, that all powerful, God like, invisible hand. Oh…and FREEDOM! Because when you read ex-governor Perry’s statement about Texans being willing to suck it up for 3 more days, you can only assume this system was built for the great Texas secession. Sacrifice for your FREEDOM! Endure that cold! Any day now, it’s going to happen.
It seems that in truth, the electric system is functioning exactly as it was designed to function. High demand. Low supply. High prices to discourage demand. What’s your problem?
I give you: William W. Hogan. Harvard professor of global energy policy at the Kennedy School. “…the architect of the strategy that was adopted by the state seven years ago.”
“…acknowledged that while many Texans have struggled this week without heat and electricity, the state’s energy market has functioned as it was designed.
That design relies on basic economics: When electricity demand increases, so too does the price for power. The higher prices force consumers to reduce energy use to prevent cascading failures of power plants that could leave the entire state in the dark, while encouraging power plants to generate more electricity.
“It’s not convenient,” Professor Hogan said. “It’s not nice. It’s necessary.”
It’s not convenient? Is that a statement JFK would have made? Is that attitude what a school named for JFK would be expected to have? Does he/they actually believe JFK was thinking about this kind of policy failure when he state: “ask not what your country can do for you”?
Robert McCullough, of McCullough Research in Portland, Ore., …“What they’ve done is systematic unpreparedness,” … “It was not inadvertent. They planned this outcome.”
Exactly. The failure to consider the effects of deep cold weather on the mechanicals is a line of specification within the plan. The specification was to not consider the deep cold effects.
To complete this sitcom of a reality show, the governor decides to play “governor” and “demand” an investigation. What? Was he not aware of this 7 years ago when the plan was implemented? Of course he was. Typical Republican.
So, lets take an elementary look at this idea of a free market public utility. And I mean elementary as in grade 1 through 6 (yes I’m that old).
We have multiple power generating options to choose from. Don’t like one, pick another. Shop for your best price. You’re free to choose. Built into this utility system is a fixed amount of electricity. It’s not an amount based on the most anticipated need in the highest of heat or deepest of cold. Nope. It’s an average amount shall we say. Just short of what would be real.
Add to this a closed system. No influence from any outside factors. It’s like a science study where you control for one variable: the grid. There is no other grid. The variable: human acting rationally or not. The thesis is that humans will reduce their demand as price rises. The solution to the need for energy conservation.
Do I need to go any further for one to see Prof Hogan’s lunacy? The man used an economic theoretical mathematical model that works on the black board and crammed the state of Texas into it. What he did should be considered professional malpractice if not academic malpractice. Someone in Texas should be asking for their money back.
Let’s break it down further. The “supply” had to be fixed. If it was not, then you would not be able to get the effect of “rational” human behavior that was theorized. Fine, but the fixed supply was not of a level that would reflect a true theorized “free market” where supply increase would happen rapidly enough to meet demand and avoid human catastrophe. That is what we have today in Texas. A human catastrophe. After all, electricity is now necessary for our survival. To not consider it as such would mean the productivity we enjoy today is fictional as in not possible. Bye, bye billionaires.
The grid is fixed. There is no option to choose another grid because the current one is junk! Without that choice there is no free market directive to build a better grid. Of course, building multiple grids from a societal perspective is foolish. Thus that “free market” adage of choice is missing. It is the socialism of the one grid we all enjoy corrupting Hogan’s model and thus experiment. To be true to his ideological blackboard model he would have built multiple grids. Multiple grids in this experiment would look like the other 47 states…interconnectedness. But he didn’t build that in. Maybe because that would have been too much socialism corrupting his model?
He failed to understand all the variables at a minimum and chose to ignore them at worst.
- Weather. In this case he saw the positive side of the number line (heat) and failed to see or intentionally ignored the negative direction of the number line (cold). Like an engineer failing to see the specs of a material, the architect failing to see he missed the entire 3rd floor (actually happened in my town’s new middle school), the doctor failing to see the missing pedicle of the vertebra thus missing the cancer (another true event). Are you getting it? By interacting with a client and asking questions, townhouse architects Melbourne can create a space that will complement the user’s lifestyle and reduce the stress of an ill-conceived plan.
- Externalities of when his system and thus model fails such that breakage of the machinery happens to the point that it causes failure of the mechanicals of a house, town, county, state.
- Productivity loss. Output loss.
What was actually saved now? Nothing! His greatest failure? Blind loyalty to his ideology thus, missing the social purpose and service of the concept and realization of “public utility”.
When Katrina happened and I watched the Bush response I was horrified. My instant first thought was, I was watching a third world response. This was America! It should not be happening this way. In Texas, we have observed a third world infrastructure. Dare I suggest a throw back to a time in Chili and Hogan’s model? Or Iraq, and Hogan’s model?
“It’s not convenient,” Professor Hogan said. “It’s not nice. It’s necessary.”
No! It is disgusting! Unless the Texans and the nation come to understand the true tragedy and cause of this latest human catastrophe, the repairs to Texas will never be adequate to do what electricity can do for securing humanity from the risks of life and living. America will never fully experience that security. Texas will never be complete to wholeness.
One more thing for all those wanting to blame the windmills. Did they forget the time when the mills were producing so much power the price of electricity was negative? They were paying people to take it. Was that a problem?
It’s not convenient. It’s not nice. It’s not necessary.
FIFY
Great piece. Good work, Dan.
To be clear: There is no god of economics. There are no laws of economics.
The family has a cabin at Donner Lake so the frozen pipes bursting story resonates with us. About every 10 years or so someone forgets to drain the pipes and then the power goes out. That results in another massive repair bill. Last time the water heater was left on and the break was on the outlet side. OUCH!!! We should install a leak detector.
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/539300-five-things-to-know-about-texass-electric-grid
…Reliance on natural gas helped fuel the energy shortage
Natural gas is the largest energy source in Texas, accounting for 40 percent of the state’s energy.
But in a region ill-prepared for single-digit temperatures, that power supply got stuck in an unfortunate cycle.
Natural gas producers need electricity to run their compressors, but electric systems were strained by cold weather and a lack of natural gas.
“Another thing this event has driven home is how interdependent our electric and natural gas systems are. We get the majority of our electricity from natural gas, and we need electricity to operate the natural gas systems, and both of them get very strained by cold weather,” Daniel Cohan, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at Rice University in Houston, previously told The Hill.
“You have the two systems that need each other to operate and both of them are experiencing a surge in demand and a loss in supply at same time,” he said. “This is really a story of how fragile systems can be when they are so dependent on natural gas in an extreme weather event.”
[The entire linked article is very good, but this CNG Catch-22 was too precious not to post.]
[From my above linked article excerpt from The Hill – ]
“You have the two systems that need each other to operate and both of them are experiencing a surge in demand and a loss in supply at same time,”
[The technical engineering term for that effect is FUBAR.]
Sent your comment to Dan
Just goes to show that one person’s bug is another person’s feature.
first: “Harvard profesor”. probably I am the only person in the country who thinks there is something rotten at Harvard.
second: i think you said it, but not very clearly: if all these were true networks they would be interconnected so that a problem in one part could be eased by continued function of another part. i think i read that Texas is deliberately off any interstate network.
third: does this guy really think the price mechanism is going to act fast enough to raise the price while demand is increasing and supply is decreasing overnight? does he even conceive that when the supply falls toward zero and the price goes toward infinity that even though his equation works, his “economics” [price mechanism] fails to do exactly what an “economy” is supposed to do [“fairest” distribution of resources, or resources directed to best use…according to the big books.] of course if fairest means “to the rich” and best use means “in the short run for the best people” well, then mabe he’s Right.
coberly:
Are my comments the most forgettable out here? On your partial comment marked as “second,” you did read such as I wrote it. Deliberately, Texas excluded itself from an existing grid for electricity, mostly to avoid federal regulators. Politicians deliberately made Texas an island and thumbed their noses at the rest of nation with a “we can go it alone” approach to energy. Their obstinance to go it alone, severing the ties to the rest of the nation has cost Texas citizens and the US time and time again. One might call this practicing economics, I think it is more like Boss Hog (Abbott, Perry, Cruz, Coryn, etc.)
This is not the first time this has occurred. 2011 was the second time and the first was in the 1990s. It appears they have 10 year events. They are also their power grid and do not associate with the east or west power grids which are conglomerations of states. When one state has issues, they draw off of the other states in emergencies. Texas can not turn to its conglomerate power grid as there is no one else in it. Neither has Texas established a reserve in which to draw upon for those 10 year events which have occurred.
There are reasons for this:
1. States Rights: By purposely keeping its grid within the borders of Texas, the state limited the impact of federal standards and regulations. The deep-seated aversion to regulation prompted former US Energy secretary and Texas Governor Rick Perry to quip, “Texans would be without electricity for longer than three days to keep the federal government out of their business.” What the hell, what is a few lives lost when you can be independent? I did not see Gov. Abbott reject aid from the Fed either. If you have an issue in Texas, you just escape to Cancun.
2. Texas believes in its independence: “From 1835 to 1836, Texas fought to gain independence from Mexico, and the resulting victory meant a new flag for the newly independent Republic of Texas — the lone star, clearly labeled, “Texas” made its first appearance. This flag, and subsequent variations of it, all featured a lone star, representing defiance, pride and — most importantly — “independence.” It also believes it electricity is cheaper as a result of breaking away from the grids and regulation of utilities under common carrier laws. (every time I read the words lone star, I think of the movie “Spaceballs.” It sorta fits Texas)
3. In 2002 Texas lawmakers deregulated the states electricity market by passing Senate Bill 7 with the promise that an open marketplace would bring about competition and lower prices. They did get cheaper prices and also all the issues that go along with it such as the outages. Generators of electricity and retailers (sellers) are governed by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, which attempts to balance the power grid’s electricity supply and demand by purchasing small amounts of electricity at 15-minute intervals throughout the day. It is a great shot-sighted plan which delivers cheap electricity in the short term. However when there are shortages, the price sky-rockets as there are no contracts to protect consumers.
4. Chair Sally Talberg of the private solely Texas company is a citizen of Michigan who also served under Gov. Snider as a member of the Michigan Public Service Commission (electricity). She is one of 5 other members of the ERCOT Board who live out of state or Canada. Kind of hard to have skin-in-the game if you are not even in the state for which your company serves.
5. etc.
An ear worm for you this morning (think of the song “I am woman”)
I am Texas, hear me roar
In size too big to ignore
And I know too much to go back and be a part
‘Cause I’ve heard it all before
when I’ve been down there on the floor
No other nation ever gonna keep me down again
Oh yes I am political
But it’s policy born of self-inflicted pain
Yes, my citizens have paid a price
But look how much politicians gained
If citizens have to, they can do anything
They are strong (strong)
They are invincible
We politicians are Texasssssssssssssssss”
run
no, you are not the most forgettable. i remembered almost all of your comment and “nearly quoted” it. also i mention somewhere that i let you and Ron do the heavy lifting.
i spent some time in texas. the people there were remarkably friendlier than the people in say Los Angeles or Boston, or…god help us..New York City (close second to South Florida). But then I remembered they were all carrying guns (in Florida only half of the people are carrying guns, so they don’t have to be friendly.)
Coberly,
Are you saying that people in South Florida are even friendlier than Texas or are you saying that people in South Florida are even less friendly than New York City? In either case though is South Florida in this case Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, and Monroe counties or is South Florida the Keys or does this apply to both?
Thanks.
Ron
I was being deliberately ambiguous to be funny at least to myself. But the key is that only half the people in South Florida carry guns so they don’t have to be friendly. I was thinking particularly of Belleglade and Pahokee. As for Miami – Daytona they were just like hollywood without the movies. I couldn’t say the people at Gainsville (UFla)or DeLand were particularly friendly…at least not the University administrations, but that was back in the old days. I hear colleges have gotten friendlier since.
New York is famous for not being friendly. But it’s a different kind of unfriendly: survival among ten million strangers.
perhaps i should add that i am the unfriendliest person in my state. i learned it in Chicago, a city not unlike new york, and those friendlier places where people are friendly because they want to get into bed with your daughter.
Coberly,
Since I have gotten old, fat, and ugly, then I neither find myself in unfriendly settings nor would I likely be seen as a competitor amongst the fuck or fight crowd were I to sit on a barstool once again. In any case, now that I am a married senior homeowner, then perching on a stool in a bar is definitely out. So, now people are friendly everywhere that I go. If men are jealous of me these days, then it is not for any reasons that they deem worth fighting over, at least not with one as old, fat, and ugly as myself.
However, forty years ago, then Chicago was the least friendly town that I ever visited. I still made more friends there than antagonists, but it did take more work and always came at the price of shared fat doobie from my traveling case. I only had a stopover in NYC (back in the late 80’s) and it felt much more like home to me, pimps, hookers, transvestites, et al, than Chicago where even the hookers were mean.
Ron
yeah, I tried to explain that to a boss I had once in the friendly state I live in. He came out of his office screamnig at me. I screamed back. He tucked his tail and ran back into his office. Later telling everyone I was on drugs.
I tried to tell him that in Chicago the only way to survive when attacked was to attack back. He said “you’re not in Chicago any more.” I didn’t bother to ask him why he screamed at me then.
Chicago Isn’t Just Segregated, It Basically Invented Modern Segregation – Chicago Magazine
Chicago: America’s most segregated city (cnn.com)