US total infections: 9,968,155*
US average last 7 days: 108,737
US total deaths: 237,570
US average last 7 days: 939
*I suspect that the real number is about 16 million, or about 5% of the total US population
Source: COVID Tracking Project
While we have been riveted by the 2020 election, the pandemic has continued to rage out of control in parts of the US, particularly in parts of the upper Midwest and northern Mountain States.
At its peak, NY had an average daily rate of 51 infections per 100,000 people. Now, 17 States have infections rates higher than that:
The worst is North Dakota, at 174 infections per 100,000 people. By contrast, the worst country on the planet, Czechia, had 117 infections per 100,000 people at its recent peak:
In addition to North Dakota, 5 other States have infection rates equal to or surpassing that of Czechia:
Next, here is the infection rate in 3 US States with large outbreaks: NY, AZ, and ND:
Whether due to a demographic shift in those who are getting sick (the early death rate in the US was largely a factor of so many cases in nursing homes), or due to better treatments in hospitals, the rate of deaths in the summer outbreaks (as shown by Arizona below) and *so far* in the recent outbreaks, has not come anywhere near the lethality in the early outbreak in NY:
At the same time, the current outbreak in ND is roughly 3x as bad as the summer outbreak in AZ. At its worst, the death rate in AZ was 1.14 per 100,000 people, vs. 3.93 in NY in April.
But, if the death rate now proves similar to that in the summer outbreak in AZ, which peaked at a 7 days average of 52.8 infections per 100,000 people daily, then ND, which currently has a 7 day average of 173.6 infections per 100,000 people, can expect a death rate of 3.75 per 100,000 people daily, very close to the death rate of 3.93 per 100,000 in NY at its peak.
Another way of looking at this is to compare the infection and hospitalization rates for NY and ND, below:
So far, the hospitalization rate in ND is less than 1/3 of that of NY at its worst.
Comparing hospitalizations with deaths, below:
We see that deaths in ND are about 40% of those of NY at its peak.
But hospitalizations lag infections by roughly 3 weeks, and deaths lag hospitalizations by about another 2 weeks. Infections in ND have almost doubled in the past 3 weeks. A doubling of ND hospitalizations would put it at roughly 2/3 of the NY peak, with deaths expected to follow suit.
And of course, there is no indication yet that ND’s infection rate has peaked. Nor, with the possible exception of South Dakota, is there any such indication for any of the other 16 States with infection rates similar to Czechia.
Sadly, it appears likely that by Thanksgiving there is going to be a full-scale emergency in parts of the upper Midwest and Mountain States similar to the one that engulfed NYC in April. And as the reality of his defeat slowly sinks in, it is highly unlikely that Donald Trump or anyone in his Administration will give a damn.
People still do not “ get it”. Whether it is the misinformation spread by the soon to be former Moron in Chief and his sycophants, misguided faith in a divine being, or the child like inability to think beyond immediate gratification, the United States continues to be the least able to get this thing under control. The real irony is that it is possible to control the outbreak and there appears to be “ light at the end of the tunnel”. Bottom line I do not think much of our leaders but unfortunately I think even less of a goodly share of our citizens.
We’re heading into a bad period. Too much of the populace is in denial or distracted and the exponential spread is likely to go unchallenged until the situation is dire. Another deeply concerning factor is that what we are seeing is 1-2 weeks behind the spread so we are locked-in for awhile.
Best case we might start seeing some policy responses by the end of the month. At that point, we could be at 400-500k new cases per day. By the time they start to have an impact we will be part way through December with cases hitting a 1m per day.
I know those numbers sound high, but that is only assuming the infection rate continues at the rate we are seeing for the next 3 weeks and then begins to moderate due to policy response. The rate actually accelerated last week, so it’s possible I’m being optimistic.
Michael, your numbers don’t seem that high to me…with new infections increasing more than 50% every two weeks, the daily infection rate will top a million a day by January 20th…
it’s simple math: last week’s high of 132,000 * (1.50 ** 5) = 1,002,375
the latest figures now show a 64% increase in two weeks…so the same math would now show:
132,000 * (1.64 ** 5) = 1,566,000 new cases per day by January 20th…Trump’s herd immunity policy will have succeeded making the vaccine redundant..
I think you were being ironic rjas on the ‘herd immunity’. There is little evidence of long-lasting immunity and an increasing awareness you can ‘catch it’ more than once.
update: we now have a 69% increase in the 7 day moving average over the past two weeks…so the math now shows:
132,000 * (1.69 ** 5) = 1,819,732 new infections per day by January 20th…
who initiates the policy response to stop this thing? it doesn’t seem like a coordinated national policy is possible at this point…
rjs,
I agree with the figures you present. My son is in San Antonia in hospital as medical staff..they are receiving patients from El Paso that are overwhelming..he wrote that 10 new patients arrived yesterday but three of the arrivals died the same day. Codes are called one after another. Contracts all over the mid-west and southwest for travel nurses are blossoming again. And this is just the start.
El Paso that are overwhelming..he wrote that 10 new patients arrived yesterday but three of the arrivals died the same day. Codes are called
”
136K new infections during the last 24H. Two weeks ago on 26 Oct 2020 we had 66K / 24H. Doubling every 2 weeks, but as winter descends on us infection will spread faster. Fed governors need to reduce human contact by slowing the economy by selling off the balance sheet and raising rates. Fed governors can thus buy time for immunization production to ramp up, save lot of mortality and chronic morbidity, save lives.
Bless
America
!
Is extended vehicle warranty wrecking contact tracing? My hospital called yesterday to go over some question for today’s surgery. Said they called the day before, but I did not respond. Phone was on a charger while I was cleaning the garage. I did see the call on the phone log, but I get a call every other day warning me of impending doom because the warranty on my vehicle is about to expire, which is interesting as the last warranty on any of them expired in mid 2017. So it was the old “if it’s important, they’ll call again”, which was the case. But it would surprise me if this is not a real factor in tracing shortfalls….”not answering that unknown number because it normally is some racket or other.”
Eric, i told the extended vehicle warranty salesman that i had a 1997 Volvo and he hung up on me..