Here is my weekly update on the 2020 elections, based on State rather than national polling in the past 30 days, since that directly reflects what is likely to happen in the Electoral College. Remember that polls are really only nowcasts, not forecasts. They are snapshots of the present; there is no guarantee they will be identical or nearly identical in early November.
Let’s begin with Trump’s approval. Disapproval remains absolutely steady at 52.7% for the third week in a row, while approval improved very slightly (by +0.3%), and remains right in its normal range for the past 3 1/2 years:
There is no indication that either Trump’s “law and order” pitch, or the replacement of the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg have moved the needle in any significant way in the past 3 weeks.
Here is this week’s updated map through September 26. To refresh, here is how it works:
– States where the race is closer than 3% are shown as toss-ups.
– States where the range is between 3% to 5% are light colors.
– States where the range is between 5% and 10% are medium colors.
– States where the candidate is leading by 10% plus are dark colors.
There were 8 changes this week, most of them adverse to Biden. While Nevada improved to “likely Biden,” Louisiana improved from “solid” to “likely GOP,” and Alabama, on a sole small poll improved from “solid” to “lean GOP,” the rest of the moves were all significant, and all downward. Most notably, Florida declined to “toss-up” (only 45 days ago having been “likely Biden”), and Pennsylvania declined to “lean Biden.” Virginia declined from “solid” to “likely Biden,” and Arizona and New Hampshire declined from “likely Biden” to “lean Biden.”
Biden’s “solid” plus “likely” Electoral College votes have now declined from their peak of 302 eight weeks ago to 255 this week. This is the very first time that this number has been under 270.
I have been expecting some incremental improvement in Trump’s position as voters who were leaning GOP “come home,” and I suspect this is mainly what we are seeing now. In the meantime, I believe the public’s perception of both the economy and Trump’s handling of the pandemic have congealed. The last significant economic report prior to the election, the September jobs report, will be released this Friday. Right now October looks like the final right-wing takeover of the Supreme Court will be front and center, along with Trump’s refusal to commit to an orderly transition if he loses.
Turning to the Senate, there has only been 1 changes this week, as an old poll in Mississippi dropped out, and the sole remaining poll causes that race to be changed from “lean GOP” to toss-up:
At current polling, if Democrats win all those seats rated “solid” and “likely,” they will have 50 Senate seats; and have improved from 55 to 57 in the past two weeks if they were to win all of the “toss-ups.” They will have 58 seats if they were to capture the “lean GOP” seat in Georgia. A shift to Democratic control of the Senate continues to look even more likely.
Joe Biden’s polling lead over Trump is the largest since Bill Clinton’s re-election in 1996
Newsweek – September 29
head of the first presidential debate of 2020, Democratic nominee Joe Biden holds a seven-point advantage over President Donald Trump—the largest since former President Bill Clinton’s re-election in 1996—according to FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average.
The last time a candidate sustained an advantage this large was nearly 25 years ago when Clinton led by 8.5 percentage points over Republican and former Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole. Clinton went on to win the election and defeat Dole with 379 electoral votes. …
While the race to the White House was much tighter in the spring, Biden has consistently had an edge over Trump by 6 to 9.6 percentage points since June.
FiveThirtyEight’s latest polls also show Biden ahead in a number of key battleground states including an 8.7 lead in Minnesota, a 6.9 lead in Michigan, a 6.5 lead in Wisconsin, a 5.4 lead in Pennsylvania, a 3.5 lead in Arizona, a 1.7 lead in Florida and a 1.1 lead in North Carolina. …
Yeah I think it was an okay week for Biden because we are one week closer to November 3. Not seeing any dramatic changes and there are very few undecideds. Barring something like either candidate dying of a stroke or heart attack, tonight is probably the MIC’s last best chance to derail Biden’s victory march and he has no control over it. If Biden does not stumble badly it is going to be very hard for the MIC to drag him down like he did with Hillary.
Instead of those maps I would like to have map that provide some level of understanding of positioning of key groups of the US neoliberal elite(one candidate, neutrality/both candidates as there is not real difference for them) in each state.
We can probably distinguish between at least five key groups with distinct, albeit overlapping interests as for the future direction of the country (for example more or less neoliberal globalization, and the desirable level of hostility in relations with China)
1.1. Intelligence agencies
1.2. Defense contractors
1.3 Officer corp
2.1 Large banks
2.2 Insurance companies
2.3.Credit card mafia
3. Neo-liberal tech mafia
3.1 Internet/social sites giants
3.2 Software giants (actually intersects with 3.1 — for example Microsoft is both)
4. Traditional manufacturing
4.2 Heavy machinery
4.3 Chemical industry
4.4. Big pharma
4.5. Agro business
5. Entertainment industry including MSM
NOTE: I am not sure the MIC is pro-Trump and anti-Biden. Biden has a proven record as a staunch militarist and neocon, so why would they prefer one over another ? In 2016 key two intelligence agencies were definitely pro-Hillary (who was a known chickenhawk ) with NSA and DIA probably on the fence, but while intelligence agencies are important part of MIC they are not all MIC which is a much bigger and complex entity.
But, for example, tech giants are firmly in neoliberal Dems camp and IMHO will stay in it. So they will definitly support Biden in 2020 and that will influence the voting results in state where they dominate political machinery.
Other states are, for example, dominated by credit card and Insurance companies like Delaware with Biden often called a senator from MBNA. ( https://www.nationalreview.com/2008/08/senator-mbna-byron-york/ )
Similar Lieberman was called a senator from General Dynamics, and Schumer — from Goldman Sachs ( https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/why-did-chuck-schumer-hire-an-ex-goldman-sachs-lobbyist/ )
Lieberman was the Senator from Aetna who cost us the Public Option. He was “a” shilling for Betsy DeVos for Secretary of Education. He has no allegiance other than to himself and “greenbacks.” Little history for you pre-USMC when I hung around coffee houses as a teen.
“And I don’t give a damn about a Greenback a-dollar
Spend it fast as I can
For a whaling song and a good guitar
The only things that I understand, poor boy
The only things that I understand”
You got a whole conspiracy going on in your mind there. Don’t know how old you are; but when we pass, it might change. For now, this is what we get. You could vote third party which gave us trump in 2016 or you can vote Biden. The rest of what you cite, ain’t happening.
Really misleading headline. Every week that goes by without a dramatic shift in the race is a bad week for Trump.
@Run75441 September 30, 2020 8:29 am
> You got a whole conspiracy going on in your mind there.
Who need conspiracies when the reality is so much more interesting 🙂
See for example:
DNI Letter Supports Allegation That Hillary Clinton Created ‘Russiagate’ by b
From Cambridge Analytica via UK’s Channel 4 via Amanpour; they had info and acted down to the individual level in key states
@~ 7 mins
Parscale knows a lot.
Maybe this week will show a little better for Joe.