Open Thread September 26, 2020 run75441 | September 26, 2020 10:13 am Comments (14) | Digg Facebook Twitter |
Savoring the Thought of Graham being ousted.
“I am being killed financially,” Graham said on Fox News Channel in his first appearance of the day on Thursday. “This money is because they hate my guts.”
Harrison had a cheeky response on Twitter Thursday night: “Anybody else get the sense that @LindseyGrahamSC just realized he’s going to lose on November 3rd?”
“Help Me, Graham begs”
Can’t think of a better guy to be ousted, well almost . . .
else get the sense that @Lindsey
assume for a moment that Lindsay Corporation has a contract with 49 wholesalers to sell to the middlemen a certain number of CPIS, centre pivot irrigation systems each month. According to the contracts these middlemen will buy CPIS from Lindsay irrespective of what economy does. this way the factory keeps turning CPIS out at a constant speed which is more efficient than variable speed for the assembly line.
the wholesaler, however, has no contract with his customers for them to buy a certain number of CPIS each month; he is basically at the mercy of the free market and the equilibrium of Supply/price/demand.
one week before the FED Governor’s meeting governors suddenly decide to sell off the balance sheet and raise fed funds rate without warning as a complete surprise to the economy.
instant fear suddenly strikes the wholesalers and other middle man Across the Nation with visions of looming deflation and slowing economy. reacting quickly as business people are wont to do, these wholesalers drop their prices significantly in order to dump their inventories. seeing prices fall, customers come rushing in to buy up all the inventory. Factory workers tell their boss that inventories have depleted thus the factory manager revs up production, puts on an extra shift and starts paying more than minimum wage. the increment in total wages of the nation revs up aggregate demand from worker consumption.
FED Governors see the threat of inflation as wages rise thus raise interest rates again and send message to Congress that taxes should be increased. Congress heeds the warning raises taxation to generate a budget surplus.
as investors the world over see our budget balanced and our national debt begin to collapse these Traders and investors buy up dollars, dollar denominated equities, and US treasuries. stock market spikes upward.
Green shoots abound. Thanks Lindsay!
Assume for a moment in yesteryear, I am a manager of a $200 million dollar per year, 100,000 square foot warehouse from which is planned, purchased and shipped inventory to ~25 manufacturing plants.
One of the major customers of three (Ford, Chrysler, or GM) decides they will not take anymore components for the rest of the year and 6 months into the following year. Oh by the way, they also want a 5% productivity gain based upon last years purchases. The warehouse I run turns 20 – 22 times per year, we could do better with a little automation but I am cranking dbl digit profits. The gods around me are happy and they do not f*ck with Bill, Justin. The result of the company closing up shop is my turns drops to 10 times as the plants I supply curtail production. The two other companies also cut production but not as severely. The plants I supply will accept no more inventory. Assume also, my suppliers are going to ship me the 6 weeks of inventory I am responsible for by contract. We push back because we are the gorilla in the room and if you want our business, you will help also. Even so, we take up much of the inventory which NO ONE is going to buy as you propose except for scrap valus.
Even so, we adjust, adapt, and improvise like any competent supply chain manager (which I am) does. I am not sure what planet you are from, go back to it as you have a BS story going and I just gave you reality. When the company started production again, we had the components to ship by ocean to Thailand, Philippines, China, and Malaysia. We kicked off our supply base who also had raw inventory to start manufacturing. A few rough spots to get around and we worked with them to get what we needed.
In 2010 I went to work for the Germans making electronical components. I was the Purchasing Manager for North America. We used various semi-conductors from multiple companies which are made from crystals grown at one plant and sent to another plant to be packaged. An electrical engineer friend at Onsemi would literally watch the crystals grow. In 2008, semi-conductor companies shut down most of the crystal and the packaging plants only to have demand return in 2009. Oh my god we are f*cked is your scenario and mine is to get on the phone and start getting what we can at the same old price plus expedite fees tacked on. Plants do not come on line for six months.
We sat with the Japanese along with GM who got an allocation of semi-conductors for their production. Panasonic but would not give us a measely 20,000 a month to use in manufacture for GM. The Japanese managers told GM (a fairly large company) to give us some of their allocation. This is funny as we had the GM VP of Purchasing there and no one tells them what to do or what They (Panasonic) won’t do. We did get an allocation and supplied what we could. End of story.
Chrysler once told the Owner of the German company I was with they would not pay a $5 million invoice for 6 months. The Owner of the German company told Chrysler, he would pull his company out of the US and go back to Bavaria. Chrysler paid.
If you want to tell tales, you had better figure out who you are talking to silly. I am manufacturing and supply chain and lived in reality and not some theoretical world you expound upon on sites such as AB, EV, etc. and never lived in the results of your decisions.
Quite the response Run. I have some good stories about international supply chains too, but I was just going to ask Justin what he was smoking and whether it was legal in his state.
I get tired of trying to be nice. He is just some person who hung out at EV with people such as PGL and some of the others from EV. Some sites for you:
WI, PA, and MI will vote like they used since 88 and 92 in presidential elections. MN will vote Dem also. The DEms are making a lot of noise though. I hope they have a plan.
So on a vaguely related topic, I am thinking that if Biden comes across as competent and tough on Tuesday, it becomes almost impossible for MIC to win if turnout is not suppressed. Meanwhile Covid is exploding in Wisconsin and is on a clear uptick in Minnesota, Iowa, Michigan and Illinois. Although the first 4 have been favoring Biden of late, the margins are not great—Iowa minuscule. Could Covid depress voting enough for the MIC to make up the difference? Certainly in Wisconsin the GOP has done everything it can to reduce the effectiveness of measures to contain the pandemic and has a long history of voter suppression. On the other hand an out of control pandemic is not very good for an incumbent and I find it odd that these states will be in crisis before November 3 while Florida will not go critical until the end of November.
Wisconsin Is on the Brink of a Major Outbreak
In a Fox News poll, 46% believed trump won the first debate while 54% believed the debate had not happened yet.
stolen from somewhere.
oops i missed the debate (has it happened already?) what happened?
On Healthcare: An executive orders can not change existing law. The same as appropriating funds, Congress is vested with the authority to make, change, or expand federal law while the executive branch implements and administers the laws that Congress passes.
No matter how much trump might want to, a President cannot expand his own legal authority.
Section 6 of trump’s latest EO admits as much, noting that the order “shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations.”
This is standard language included in EOs because EOs are limited to what is possible under current law. Thank goodness.
It is all a charade.
Beginning September 11, 2020, media sources reported that political appointees within the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) have demanded the ability to review and revise scientific reports on the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic published in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR), published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).1,2 According to these sources, reviews by political appointees have sometimes led to delays in publication and changes in language in certain reports. Whether this is true is unclear, but these reports are consistent with other reports of the actions of political appointees and their attempts to influence the scientific process.3 As former editors in chief of MMWR, we believe these media reports raise serious concerns that in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, scientific reports published in MMWR might have been delayed or altered for political purposes. These concerns threaten the credibility of MMWR, an essential source of information to help counteract the pandemic.
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly, Meet Donald Trump
NY Times – September 28
… Bret Stephens: Right. All Biden has to say is, I’m Joe, two plus two is four and 10 times 10 is one hundred, I love my wife, I’m not going to declare war on anyone’s suburb, my economic plan is to cut taxes on the middle class, build a faster Acela and declare the Trump hotel in Washington a toxic-waste dump, I won’t blow up the world and I’m definitely not Donald Trump. Argument over.
Gail Collins: Can I say I’m simultaneously hoping he projects a cheerful, warm personality while beating his opponent to a pulp on issues like health care and the environment?
Bret: It’s very important for Biden to play the Happy Warrior. A few jokes would be great (assuming he doesn’t fumble the punch lines). Above all, he shouldn’t scare away wavering voters, either with a memory lapse or by advocating a far-left position, like free health care for illegal immigrants. He won the Democratic nomination as a moderate and that’s the brand he needs to win the White House.
Gail: What about you? On matters of pure policy — like health care or unions — you may actually agree with Trump more often than Biden, right?
Bret: Well, it isn’t so much that I agree more with Trump — I’m a much more libertarian conservative than this administration when it comes to trade, abortion, legal immigration and international alliances, to mention a few issues. But my disagreements with Biden, as broad as they are, seem fairly trivial given what’s at stake in the election. I’d rather have a president who might sometimes get a bit confused than one who deliberately sows confusion. I’d rather lose more of my paycheck in taxes under Biden than lose more of my democracy in demagogic deceit under Trump. And I’d rather have a president who willingly pays lots of taxes on a relatively low income than one who pays almost no taxes on a high one.
Gail: Ah. That’s why you’re such a great sparring partner. Always with underlying principles.
Bret: Principles is a little too generous, Gail. I just like democracy. …
If your comments keep disappearing, you should tell us as something is wrong for them to be in trash unless of course you put them there. Since this was there twice, I am assuming you wanted this comment.
oops again. apparently your comment was a joke. being one of the 54%, I didn’t get it.