The Democratic convention
I watched most of the convention, and thought it was well done. My main concern is that most of the arguments made against Trump – and the election will primarily be about Trump, not Biden – were more persuasive to people who are already solid Biden voters. If you are still thinking about voting for Trump, hearing that he is divisive, authoritarian, and incompetent is unlikely to change your mind. You’ve heard those arguments a million times.
What types of arguments will work? Remind people who voted for Trump that he lied to them about Social Security, health care, and taxes. People hate being lied to. They *hate* feeling that politicians are playing them for suckers. Find a former Trump voter who is willing to say “I voted for Trump because he said he would strengthen Social Security and give us better health care. I believed him, and if he had done that I would still be on his side. But he lied. He lied. Maybe I should have seen that coming. I see it now.”
The most common mistake in political argument is to assume that other people see things the same way you do. They don’t – that’s why they disagree with you in the first place.
We mailed in our ballots yesterday.
Remember
VOTE EARLY AND VOTE OFTEN.
You missed this?
““In 2016, Trump promised he would stand with working families. He said that he would ‘drain the swamp,’ take on Wall Street and powerful special interests,” Sanders said. “He would protect Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, and, by the way, he would provide health care to ‘everybody.’ Well, none of it was true.”
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/bernie-sanders-biden-democratic-national-convention-2020-election_n_5f3630f0c5b6959911e2650a
Sanders’ remark is close to what I have in mind, but it was not a main theme of the event, it did not focus on betrayal from the point of view of Trump voters, which I think is critical, and I don’t think he is the best person to deliver this message, since he has been such a vocal Trump critic. It should come from someone who believed in Trump and feels they were lied to.
“the president didn’t want to hear that his directives were illegal, saying he had “magical authorities.”
trump appeals to the lowest people denominator within the nation. They do not believe he has lied to them. Indeed, they will claim he did everything he said he would do. And yes he did even if they were the worse offences possible towards humanity. The same as the claim to magical authorities by trump, the claim to doing everything he promised to do is stunning as you have to go through everything and refute it piece meal when it is self-evident that everything he has done is humanly wrong.
They do not want “stinking healthcare” and they will die resisting it to take it away from others. They do not want to wear face masks or socially distant if told to do so and even if they will suffer from injury. etc. There is no convincing some of these voters of trump’s vile behaviors.
After three, going on 4 years of demonstrated events of incompetency, racism, bigotry, etc.; many of them are still content with enabling him. There was nothing in trump’s past as a, a, (you fill it in) which would indicate he would raise to the duties of this nation’s presidency and represent all of the people. We are literally dying from Covid and other ailments from contracting it and still no “back-stepping and regrouping” by Republicans. Black Americans are being shot dead or murdered from illegal methods of restraint. Protestors are being captured by trump-authorized vigilante squads.
Hopefully too, history has a place it can enshrine people such as McConnell who with support from Republican Senators had made it his mission to block any attempts to stop trump. He can go to hell along with trump too. Congressional Republicans own the last 4 – years of their nonfeasance governance.
Eric,
You seem to think there were trump voters who voted for him because of his promises about ” Social Security, health care, and taxes”.
Not a lot. Perhaps a lot that said that was why they voted for him. Just like there were a lot of people that said they voted for Obama and then voted for Trump.
They all lied.
The standard Trumpenproletariat response when confronted with Trump’s lies is “They all lie.”
Joel,
Yes. The thing is those voters have gotten almost everything they wanted from trump. Racism from one, and repeated when necessary.
Policies and lies do not matter to them. Of course it is easy to show his lies on healthcare, Social Security, etc. Has been for years. The ones who actually pay any attention to those issues all know the truth. They don’t care.
Trump has an approval rate with Rep voters over 90%. After all those lies, after all those job losses, over all those deaths.
There is nothing else but racism to explain that.
The goal here is to win the election. The Dems can improve their odds by turning out their voters, and by attracting some cross-pressured Trump voters. The convention was largely focused on the first task, which is fine. But there are many cross-pressured Republicans (liberal on economic issues), and they need to be persuaded using language that is relevant to them. Calling them racists or deplorables isn’t the way to get their support. Again, we’re not trying to describe a typical Trump voter – the average Trump voter is not up for grabs. We’re talking about peeling off a few voters at the margin to win the election. And remember that each cross-pressured Trump voter who switches is worth two Sanders voters who might stay home.
@Eric,
I assume all of this is a set-up for the Bidens to go positive at the climax of this political orgy.
I’m not a fan of conventions and have watched about as many convention speeches as I have Super Bowl games (the number rhymes with “hero”).
Trump can’t and won’t give a hopeful vision, since he’s had four years to MAGA and he’s failed Reagan’s “Are you better off now than four years ago” test. This is the Democrat’s to lose.
I prefer Trump but my 2 cents: Hydroxychloroquine should be brought in from the cold at this convention. Technically you can imagine this is not a political issue but do not count on that being the perception of a lot of voters. Basically it is looking too good right now (as an early treatment with zpak and zinc) to take a bet that standing with a kind of passive aggressive resistance to it will be a good way to go into the election. Get Walz on the agenda to explain his recent decision that removed a lot of limitations on it in Minnesota. Get that Michigan Democratic public official that says it helped save her life. Do not worry that it makes Trump look a bit better…..that is going to happen anyway and the exercise is to make the Democrats look a little better on this.
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz: has lifted restriction he set in March on how the malaria drug hydroxychloroquine is dispensed, saying a run on the drug is no longer feared because it has no proven benefit in treating COVID-19. Why MN Gov. Walz lifted prescribing limits on the malaria drug Trump touted as COVID-19 treatment
The restriction was not done because it was found to be effective. This topic really has no place at the DNC Convention. Sorry . . .
Yeah, it’s his bigoted, racist, white supremacist dog whistles but the handful of Trumpies I know also really seem to APPRECIATE his lying, sniveling, whining, blame always lies elsewhere persona too. So Trump constantly talking smack to anyone and everyone who disagrees with him is only natural and perfectly justified. Adding up those traits, it’s no surprise that his supporters believe whatever it is he says even if it contradicts what he’s said before. When Trump’s actions/inaction have been bad for them personally, that outcome is always someone else’s fault, always because “they” didn’t follow Trump’s wisdom. It’s like a cult and in my, admittedly limited, experience there really is no argument, rational or irrational, that will find traction with a devoted Trump follower.
“most of the arguments made against Trump – and the election
will primarily be about Trump, not Biden – were more persuasive
to people who are already solid Biden voters.”
A goodly number of GOP persons appeared also, like Ohio’s John
Kasich, to excoriate Trump. This was odd for a Dem convention,
and risks annoying hard-core Dems. But, “It is what it is.”
Conventions are mostly about energizing the base.
I am energized already. I still tuned in.
And I’m not a Dem, being ‘unenrolled’.
Best I’ve seen in awhile; want to share:
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/political-commentary/covid-19-end-of-american-era-wade-davis-1038206/
Eric,
I believe there are so few Rep voters that can be “peeled off” that the effort is nonsensical. The only hope is that they get discouraged and do not show up to vote. And that won’t happen because of any convention dialogue; campaign ads, or protests. It will happen because little bits of info creeps into their bubble and they lose their enthusiasm.
Don’t bet on it.
Ken,
I read the Rolling Stone article and it was magnificent in both its vision and its horror. I don’t do sounded files while my wife is at work from home on the phone. The only quibble that I have with the article is, as it acknowledged in the beginning but then seemed to forget, is that we never know outcomes until they have had time to come out, because really strange stuff can happen. OK, that is wishful thinking perhaps, but it may be the only hope and prayer we have left. Socially, we do not seem to have the capacity to organize a sock drawer.
Eric,
“…We’re talking about peeling off a few voters at the margin to win the election…”
[It is possible that conservatives are better grounded in the three R’s (especially aRithmetic) than those with a more liberal education. Elections for POTUS and US Senate overall respond well to small marginal victories in swing states. That is how that Trump is POTUS and Republicans control the Senate.
There was a time when the Democratic Party lived by the certainty that government according to the preferences of a popular majority was constitutionally impossible in the US. How can we not be humbled by the irony bleeding out from our own history? ]
Ron,
What time was that?
Let me serve as devil advocate here.
Economic landscape changed. From late 1980th to 2020 the America economy was “neoliberalized”. The low-profit activities and supply chains were moved to low wage countries, while Western multinationals consolidated the dominance in research, development and marketing, as well as intellectual property rights. Using IMF and World Bank the USA established hegemony over the countries of former USSR and many others converting them into debt slaves.
Right now globalization train was derailed. by both trade war with China and, especially, COVID-19. Especially by the latter, which proved to be a long term factor.
Nationalists are on the rise globally as a reaction on to excesses and failures of neoliberalism. Neoliberal ideology is dead and now is subject of nasty jokes. That affects Biden more then Trump.
But the new Cold war with China is yet another nail into the coffin of neoliberal globalization.
If deterioration of the standard of living of the USA middle class continue unabated, people in 2020 will turn against the establishment and that does not increase chances for Biden, who greatly contributed to neoliberalization of the country and as such carry much of the responsibility for consciences.
Racial relation landscape drastically changed. The consequences of riots are not totally clear. but polarization increased and that does not favor Biden one bit. I do not know what Dem strategists think but this factor alone might change the results of the elections.
Whether one views the so called Woke ideology as black racism or not, it s a powerful shot in Trump’s hand and might create Bush/Gore situation Florida. Note that Trump the last month collected more money then Biden.
IMHO those two factors will determine the elections and operating within 2016 framework no longer provide any insights. Dem convention failed to acknowledge any of those two factors and parading Floyd parents was a very questionable move.
I centrally would prefer even senile Biden and incompetent but arrogant Kamala to Trump, but right now situation for Dems looks more and more precarious. Looks like pendulum of public opinion started to swing back and can kick Biden/Kamala tandem.
likbez:
About 1960-something wages started to become a smaller component of manufacturing, it was either investment or leave because of US overhead. Nationalism is nothing new and is the result of a failure to recognize the needs of people. It has been around decades before neoliberalism was even a word. Even John Adams observed that to be poor and unnoticed is a crushing burden to the mentality of people. Prison Psychiatrist Gilligan noted that shame, the very shame and loss of respect experienced by those who commit crimes will not only cause them to hurt others but to injure themselves.
The issue is the ever continuing inequity between the classes which causes people to strike out at the establishment enforcing it.
“right now situation for Dems looks more and more precarious. ”
I don’t know how you can look at 538 and write those words. The numbers simply do not support that assertion.
EMike,
Our unDemocratic Party has been around almost as long as our nation. The Federalists feared the tyranny of the majority perhaps most, notably Hamilton, but the antebellum Democratic Party was no less invested in the government of the people by elites than were the Federalists. Republicans were never any different, but there was a vestige of Thomas Paine’s hopes for popular democracy buried deep within the Republican Party’s progressive wing with its Square Deal, which evolved into its own Progressive Party, nicknamed the Bull Moose Party, which withered away of itself only to be reborn as the New Deal. The irony of that partisan evolution from owned by slaveholders to supporting reparations for the descendants of slaves never ceases to amuse me.
BTW, Thomas Paine would never have been a Federalist nor a Republican, but his Democratic Party friend Thomas Jefferson was likely a big disappointment to TP as well.
After the Civil War and Reconstruction, then the Democratic Party did not have enough representation from Jim Crow to legislate, much less lead. So, the Democratic Party went shopping for votes, mostly in the North, first from immigrants and then from unions, both cast-offs from the ruling Republican Party.
Where Americans Can Vote
by Mail in the 2020 Elections
NY times – August 14
(graphics at the link)
At least three-quarters of all American voters will be eligible to receive a ballot in the mail for the 2020 election — the most in U.S. history, according to a New York Times analysis. If recent election trends hold and turnout increases, as experts predict, roughly 80 million mail ballots will flood election offices this fall, more than double the number that were returned in 2016.
The rapid and seismic shift in how Americans will vote is because of the coronavirus pandemic. Concerns about the potential for virus transmission at polling places have forced many states to make adjustments on the fly that — despite President Trump’s protests — will make mail voting in America more accessible this fall than ever before. …
Several of the states that made changes for the primaries are keeping them in place for the general election, while others are making separate adjustments for the fall. A handful of states have not made any modifications and appear unlikely to do so.
Over all, 27 states and Washington, D.C., have in some way expanded voter access to mail ballots for the 2020 general election, with the broad goal of making it easier for people to vote amid a global health crisis. And in some states that maintained relatively strict rules, individual counties have undertaken similar efforts. …
Early Voting calendar
Varies by state, of course. The earliest mail-in date
seems to be 45 days before Election Day. But to
confuse matters, MA has primaries scheduled for
Sep 1, for US Senate & House races, and various
local & party offices, with mail voting open now.
For the Main Event, in MA, on Nov 3, it’s…
“11 days before the election. In light of COVID-19,
the state will have more specific instructions on
early voting procedures at a later date.”
@Joel — August 20, 2020 6:50 am
Joel,
I just remember 538 predictions for 2016. :
Hillary: 71.4%
Donald Trump: 28.6%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
It’s Way Too Soon To Count Trump Out
538.com – Nate Silver – August 12
… the FiveThirtyEight presidential election forecast, which we launched today, still has Trump with a 29 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, despite his current deficit in the polls. This is considerably higher than some other forecasts, which put Trump’s chances at around 10 percent. Biden’s chances are 71 percent in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, conversely. …
Run75441
August 20, 2020 6:12 am
Yes you have a point. Some level of inequality is unavoidable and increase the we observe is partially due to the fact that late 40th and 50th were such an anomaly. The question is at what level inequality becomes a kind of cancer that negatively affect the whole society.
In the meantime I found an interesting comment from the Moon of Alabama:
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/08/steve-bannon-former-senior-advisor-arrested-for-defrauding-trump-voters.html?cid=6a00d8341c640e53ef0263e95e207b200b#comment-6a00d8341c640e53ef0263e95e207b200b
Large majorities in ‘very blue’ states
get a candidate extra popular votes
but NOT *extra* electoral votes.
Small majorities in large-pop ‘swing’ states
get a candidate extra electoral votes but
do NOT alter the popular vote total much.
Small states have extra electoral votes, due to
the constitutional design of the electoral college.
More of them are ‘red’ than ‘blue’.
Win enough ‘swing’ states & ‘small’ states and the
candidate with fewer popular votes wins the election.
Pollsters have trouble dealing with this, it seems.
Maybe they’ve got it right this time.
One can only hope. And provide
as much support to Joe Biden
as is humanly possible.
Fix the House to represent by population.
run
i think you came closest to the mark with “inequality” it may not be money inequality as such, but the contempt the haves express for the have nots. this may sound odd since the Dems claim to be for the worker and the R’s for the rich.
It may be a matter of education. The poorish people I know are not very smart (except about their trades and their hobbies), and are not well educated. The well educated people I know are (at least often) not very smart but have read good books, and have good jobs.
People in general do not think very hard or very clearly and they will hang on to “irrational” ideas that are “tribally” consistent with what they have been told and believed before there was any possibility of critial thought.
and in fact I (perhaps neither very smart or well educated) agree with you about most things and certainly the desireability of humane solutions (and the necessity of “government” to find those solutions. But I also have very strong sympathies with the “superstitions” of the “least of these”.
It is probably way too late, but if I were the Dems, especially the progressive element of the dems I would try to find a way to talk that did not express contempt toward the “deplorables”.
an important factor in all this is that the deplorables tend to live in parts of the country where the “thought leaders” and the media convey a constant and consistent message that is essentially the Trump message. People who can’t think too well generally resort, if only in fantasy, to brute force to “protect” themselves from what they fear.
i fear that when the Left gets into power, we will find out what the Right was afraid of.
Listening and watching Les Miserables the musical. Who ever knew Wolverine could sing or that that Anne Hathaway could be made to look distressed? Some words for you from Upton Sinclair and Victor Hugo which have some meaning in relation to Les Miserable. I am the son of a bricklayer/tuckpointer who never finished grade school and one of five of us of which 4 remain. We each have advanced degrees and I several. Who would have thought such would occur?
I fear at times I am losing my memory and catch myself trying to remember some things which came so easily recently. Is it my 71 years causing me to lose my acuity? I could add a column of twenty numbers or so and tell the presenter the answer before he could announce it. I have to keep reading to fill the voids.