Stocks Are Soaring. So Is Misery.
Optimism about Apple’s future profits won’t pay this month’s rent.
By Paul Krugman
On Tuesday, the S&P 500 stock index hit a record high. The next day, Apple became the first U.S. company in history to be valued at more than $2 trillion. Donald Trump is, of course, touting the stock market as proof that the economy has recovered from the coronavirus; too bad about those 173,000 dead Americans, but as he says, “It is what it is.”
But the economy probably doesn’t feel so great to the millions of workers who still haven’t gotten their jobs back and who have just seen their unemployment benefits slashed. The $600 a week supplemental benefit enacted in March has expired, and Trump’s purported replacement is basically a sick joke.
Even before the aid cutoff, the number of parents reporting that they were having trouble giving their children enough to eat was rising rapidly. That number will surely soar in the next few weeks. And we’re also about to see a huge wave of evictions, both because families are no longer getting the money they need to pay rent and because a temporary ban on evictions, like supplemental unemployment benefits, has just expired.
But how can there be such a disconnect between rising stocks and growing misery? Wall Street types, who do love their letter games, are talking about a “K-shaped recovery”: rising stock valuations and individual wealth at the top, falling incomes and deepening pain at the bottom. But that’s a description, not an explanation. What’s going on?
The first thing to note is that the real economy, as opposed to the financial markets, is still in terrible shape. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s weekly economic index suggests that the economy, although off its low point a few months ago, is still more deeply depressed than it was at any point during the recession that followed the 2008 financial crisis.
And this time around, job losses are concentrated among lower-paid workers — that is, precisely those Americans without the financial resources to ride out bad times.
What about stocks? The truth is that stock prices have never been closely tied to the state of the economy. As an old economists’ joke has it, the market has predicted nine of the last five recessions.
Stocks do get hit by financial crises, like the disruptions that followed the fall of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 and the brief freeze in credit markets back in March. Otherwise, stock prices are pretty disconnected from things like jobs or even G.D.P.
And these days, the disconnect is even greater than usual.
For the recent rise in the market has been largely driven by a small number of technology giants. And the market values of these companies have very little to do with their current profits, let alone the state of the economy in general. Instead, they’re all about investor perceptions of the fairly distant future.
Take the example of Apple, with its $2 trillion valuation. Apple has a price-earnings ratio — the ratio of its market valuation to its profits — of about 33. One way to look at that number is that only around 3 percent of the value investors place on the company reflects the money they expect it to make over the course of the next year. As long as they expect Apple to be profitable years from now, they barely care what will happen to the U.S. economy over the next few quarters.
Furthermore, the profits people expect Apple to make years from now loom especially large because, after all, where else are they going to put their money? Yields on U.S. government bonds, for example, are well below the expected rate of inflation.
And Apple’s valuation is actually less extreme than the valuations of other tech giants, like Amazon or Netflix.
So big tech stocks — and the people who own them — are riding high because investors believe that they’ll do very well in the long run. The depressed economy hardly matters.
Unfortunately, ordinary Americans get very little of their income from capital gains, and can’t live on rosy projections about their future prospects. Telling your landlord not to worry about your current inability to pay rent, because you’ll surely have a great job five years from now, will get you nowhere — or, more accurately, will get you kicked out of your apartment and put on the street.
So here’s the current state of America: Unemployment is still extremely high, largely because Trump and his allies first refused to take the coronavirus seriously, then pushed for an early reopening in a nation that met none of the conditions for resuming business as usual — and even now refuse to get firmly behind basic protective strategies like widespread mask requirements.
Despite this epic failure, the unemployed were kept afloat for months by federal aid, which helped avert both humanitarian and economic catastrophe. But now the aid has been cut off, with Trump and allies as unserious about the looming economic disaster as they were about the looming epidemiological disaster.
So everything suggests that even if the pandemic subsides — which is by no means guaranteed — we’re about to see a huge surge in national misery.
Oh, and stocks are up. Why, exactly, should we care?
The Burden of the Debt: Lessons for Biden Adviser Ted Kaufman
By DEAN BAKER
Top Biden adviser, and long-time personal friend, Ted Kaufman was seen * in the Wall Street Journal warning that the debt run up by the Trump administration will seriously limit what Biden will be able to do as president. This is wrong big time, and it is the sort of silly thing that no one in a Biden administration should ever be saying.
The government’s ability to spend is limited by the economy’s ability to produce, not the debt. If the government spends too much, it will lead to inflation. When we have a period of high unemployment, as is the case now and almost certainly will still be the case if Biden takes office in January, we are very far from hitting the economy’s inflation barriers.
It takes some very deliberate head-in-the-ground economics ** to argue that we are somehow limited by the size of the government debt. Japan provides a great model here. Its ratio of debt to GDP is more than 250 percent, more than twice the current U.S. level. Yet, the country is seeing new zero inflation and has a 0.03 percent interest rate on its long-term debt. The interest on its debt is near zero, since much of its debt carries a negative interest rate.
The idea that we would not address pressing needs, like climate change, child care, and health care because we are concerned about the debt burden is close to crazy. As long as the economy is not near its capacity, there is zero reason not to spend to address these priorities, and even when it does approach its capacity, we can impose higher taxes *** on the economy’s big winners over the last four decades.
I will also throw in one important item of logic that our deficit and debt hawks should be forced to deal with. When the government issues patent and copyright monopolies to pharmaceutical and software and other companies, this is a form of implicit debt. These monopolies are effectively private taxes that the government allows these companies to collect in exchange for their innovations or creative work.
The rent payments on these monopolies run into many hundreds of billions annually **** and quite possibly exceed $1 trillion annually. They dwarf interest payments on the debt. The debt whiners don’t get to exclude this implicit debt from their calculations just because they like the companies and individuals who benefit from these rents.
If people are having a hard time understanding the logic here, we can go back to pre-revolutionary France. To deal with its huge debt the government would sell off the right to collect specific taxes. I guess Mr. Kaufman and other deficit hawks would say this is fine since the country now had a lower debt burden, but that is not a serious position. It would be good if the economics profession could be united in explaining this simple logic to laypeople, but as is often said, economists are not very good at economics.
Breathing in Less Coronavirus Means You Get Less Sick
When you breathe in a respiratory virus, it immediately begins hijacking any cells it lands near to turn them into virus production machines. The immune system tries to stop this process to halt the spread of the virus.
The amount of virus that you’re exposed to – called the viral inoculum, or dose – has a lot to do with how sick you get. If the exposure dose is very high, the immune response can become overwhelmed. Between the virus taking over huge numbers of cells and the immune system’s drastic efforts to contain the infection, a lot of damage is done to the body and a person can become very sick.
* * * * * *
Laboratory experiments have shown that good cloth masks and surgical masks could block at least 80% of viral particles from entering your nose and mouth.
* * * * * *
However, in places where everyone wears masks, the rate of asymptomatic infection seems to be much higher. In an outbreak on an Australian cruise ship called the Greg Mortimer in late March, the passengers were all given surgical masks and the staff were given N95 masks after the first case of COVID-19 was identified. Mask usage was apparently very high, and even though 128 of the 217 passengers and staff eventually tested positive for the coronavirus, 81% of the infected people remained asymptomatic.
Further evidence has come from two more recent outbreaks, the first at a seafood processing plant in Oregon and the second at a chicken processing plant in Arkansas. In both places, the workers were provided masks and required to wear them at all times. In the outbreaks from both plants, nearly 95% of infected people were asymptomatic.
I read such also. I think the assumption is in error. Covid replicates multiple times over. I do not believe if one gets a smaller dose, they will get a lesser version of Covid as a result of such. The LA Times did a nice cartoon for laymen such as us, It goes into detail explaining the replication process of Covid. How coronaviruses replicate inside you. WE have some people here who can take this explanation to another level if they wish to do so.
One other issue from contracting Covid, it can damage other organs besides the lungs which was seen from the beginning. One does not want to contract Covid in a small or large dose quantity. I find the presumptions by some that a difference in dosage to be inaccurate.
One small caveat, if you catch it early Covid is easier to treat and that is a matter of les than 1 week when it is not as evident.
Chinese mainland reports 22 new COVID-19 cases, no new deaths
The Chinese mainland registered 22 new cases of COVID-19 on Thursday, all from overseas, the Chinese health authority said on Friday. This was the fifth consecutive day without domestic transmissions.
No deaths linked to the coronavirus disease were recorded on Thursday, while 47 patients were discharged from hospitals.
The total number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland stands at 84,917 and the cumulative death toll at 4,634, with 353 asymptomatic patients under medical observation.
How severe the incautious opening of Israel has been, after the coronavirus spread had appeared to be controlled, can be understood in realizing that little Israel has experienced 100,716 infections in all now, while China has experienced 84,917.
Federal Government Non-Post Office Employment, 1980-2018
[ Though this is a Census year, unlike other Census years there has been no added federal employment. Of course, the coronavirus spread is partly the reason but the completion of the Census will be affected. ]
5,476,266 cases on the 14th and 5,789,522 cases on the 21st or a total of 313,286 new cases from your numbers. Does this make sense?
171,535 total deaths recorded on the 14th and 179,015 breached on the 21st. A total of 7,480 deaths for the last week.
Deaths should lag new by weeks.
Thirteen of 15-member U.N. Security Council oppose U.S. push for Iran sanctions
The United States was further isolated on Friday over its bid to reimpose international sanctions on Iran with 13 countries on the 15-member U.N. Security Council expressing their opposition, arguing that Washington’s move is void given it is using a process agreed under a nuclear deal that it quit two years ago.
As for the spread of the coronavirus, cases in the southern hemisphere are important to pay attention to since these are the southern winter months and the spread in the south tells us to expect the same in the north barring close control before the northern winter.
Chinese mainland reports 22 new COVID-19 cases, no new deaths
The Chinese mainland registered 22 new cases of COVID-19 on Friday, all from overseas, the Chinese health authority said on Saturday. This was the sixth consecutive day without domestic transmissions.
No deaths linked to the coronavirus disease were recorded on Friday, while 59 patients were discharged from hospitals.
The total number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland stands at 84,939 and the cumulative death toll at 4,634, with 366 asymptomatic patients under medical observation.
Stop Campus Partying to Slow the Virus? Colleges Try but Often Fail
Coronavirus outbreaks at colleges reopening for fall classes underscore the difficulties of policing student behavior.
By Shawn Hubler and Anemona Hartocollis
At Cornell University, students started arriving over the past week hoping for a safe and socially distanced fall semester. Jason Chang already has doubts.
A 24-year-old doctoral student, Mr. Chang oversees undergraduates in the dorm where he lives. As the first wave of residents checked in, he caught one student out wandering the halls three times when she was supposed to be quarantining.
Another student worker got a phone call from an undergraduate who, from the background noise, appeared to be at an unauthorized party. Another caught two students in supposed isolation hanging out together in a single dorm room.
“Constant insanity and madness,” said Mr. Chang, who this fall will share supervision of up to 300 dorm residents with seven other graduate and undergraduate students, all while working on his own Ph.D. in biomedical engineering. “That’s been my life this week.”
Covid in the Classroom? Some Schools Are Keeping It Quiet
Some states and school districts provide detailed data on school outbreaks. Others choose to keep such information under wraps.
By Dan Levin
On the first day of school in Camden County, Ga., local Facebook groups were already buzzing with rumors that a teacher had tested positive for the coronavirus. The next day, a warning went out to school administrators: Keep teachers quiet.
“Staff who test positive are not to notify any other staff members, parents of their students or any other person/entity that they may have exposed them,” Jon Miller, the district’s deputy superintendent, wrote in a confidential email on Aug. 5.
In the weeks since, parents, students and teachers in the coastal community on the Florida border have heard by word of mouth of more positive cases linked to district schools. Some parents said they had been called by local officials and told that their children should quarantine.
But even as fears of an outbreak have grown, the district has refused to publicly confirm a single case, either to the local community or The New York Times.
How severe a toll the incautious opening of schools and businesses in Israel has taken, after the coronavirus spread had appeared to be controlled, can be understood in realizing that little Israel has experienced 101,856 infections in all now, while China has experienced 84,939.
The number of serious, critical coronavirus patients in the United States has been above 16,000 each day for months. Often above 17,000. Many of these patients recover, but by my understanding will still encounter significant health problems in future.
Chinese mainland reports 12 new COVID-19 cases, no new deaths
The Chinese mainland registered 12 new cases of COVID-19 on Saturday, all from overseas, the Chinese health authority said on Sunday, marking the seventh consecutive day without domestic transmissions.
No deaths linked to the coronavirus disease were recorded on Saturday, while 44 patients were discharged from hospitals.
The total number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland stands at 84,951 and the cumulative death toll at 4,634, with 370 asymptomatic patients under medical observation.
Strange that the Democratic convention featured a specific coronavirus speech by Cuomo. Consider that if New York is not in the bag, then Biden definitely will lose. So who was Cuomo supposed to be influencing here? Look at the data and try to say that voters in Wisconsin, North Carolina or Florida are really going to say something like ‘I sure wish a guy like Cuomo had been our Governor?’ I understand that Democrats want to portray New York as a big success against a horrible situation, but they shouldn’t really want this as part of the campaign as the supporting argument is very nuanced and the counter is brutally straightforward and involves objective measures of mortality and discussions of nursing home practices. The politics of it are not helpful….well they are helpful to Trump, actually. I believe that there are another 5 or 6 weeks to go before Democrats need to pick a COVID campaign strategy. Consider that Biden is already out reminding voters that maybe he will lockdown the country next year. Whatever possible favorable impact this might have today is irrelevant if that pledge does not seem to make sense in October. Few in Wisconsin will react favorably to this “threat” and the best chance that it will be anything other than a negative is if there is a lot more COVID in Wisconsin prior to the election. If that is what he thinks likely, fine, but again what actually is gained by not waiting to see it happen (or not)?
20 days and we will surpass 200,000 deaths if the trend continues. Sometime around September 11 we should be at 200,000, if August 21 is used as the start of a countdown. It could easily be 250,000 by the time of the election. Republicans are calling themselves “The Storm” on to Democrats as taken from their and the RNC Chairman’s interpretation of the Bible’s Psalm 29. To me, they are a plague.
How the BRI is defying expectations in 2020
By Tom Fowdy
The year 2020 has been one of the dreariest years in global economic history. The imposition of worldwide grinding lockdowns and the decimation of recreational and tourist industries have created profound challenges for global prosperity and wellbeing, with countries experiencing overwhelming surges in unemployment and falls in gross domestic product.
Yet in the midst of the chaos and uncertainty, there is one program which has ultimately defied expectations, that is China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Despite the frosty climate for global investment which has of course slowed down new Belt and Road related lending, newly published data nevertheless found China’s non-financial direct investments in Belt and Road countries (thus investments by private companies) stood at 10.27 billion U.S. dollars in the first seven months, up by 28.9 percent year on year, with foreign contracted projects standing at 67.18 billion U.S. dollars in the same period.
In addition, projects created by the BRI have also come to fruition. China-Europe railway trains have surged by 68 percent in the past year, with cargo having increased by 73 percent, with 1,232 trains having made journeys from Chinese cities to European destinations. The increases have been bolstered by the COVID-19, proving faster, more efficient and cheaper than maritime and flight cargo.
Western commentators have persistently sought to push a confirmation bias that they believe the BRI is failing, or doomed to fail. If it is not described as a “debt trap” or in another malign ways, then its investments are typically presented as incompetent or inefficient, with a focus on how countries are apparently “pushing back” against it or how it is “unravelling.”
Thus not surprisingly, the early COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a chorus of typical op-eds which heralded the virus as “the undoing” of the project. However, far from crippling China, evidence seems to suggest the pandemic has accelerated the program as a route to economic recovery, and is now changing Eurasian supply lines accordingly….
China’s production resumption stabilizes global supply chain
— Governments at different levels in China have made concerted efforts to help enterprises resume production, in a move that helps stabilize the global supply chain.
— During the COVID-19 epidemic, China’s manufacturing sector has withstood the “stress test” from the virus, and helped ensure a steady global supply of medical goods, as well as stable industrial and supply chains, said Xin Guobin, vice minister of industry and information technology.
— During the epidemic, China’s business environment and stable industrial supply chain have won widespread recognition from foreign investors.
NANJING — Chinese carmaker SAIC MAXUS Automotive Co., Ltd. has managed to buck the trend of a global automobile industry recession amid the COVID-19 pandemic, with vehicle sales rising by 26.4 percent year on year in July.
“Our team has gone through all of our 1,288 suppliers to sort out possible problems early during the epidemic, which is full of twists,” said Wang Ying, general manager of SAIC MAXUS’s Nanjing Plant in east China’s Jiangsu Province.
“We even requested the local authorities to help transfer parts and even equipment from Wuhan, a strategically important city of China’s automobile industry that was hard hit during the epidemic,” said Wang.
Thanks to the resilient supply chain in the world’s largest auto market, SAIC MAXUS resumed full operations of its four manufacturing bases on Feb. 24.
China’s broader auto industry has seen a recovery. Data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) showed that the country’s automobile production and sales increased by 21.9 percent and 16.4 percent, respectively, year on year in July.
BACK ON TRACK
Governments at different levels in China have made concerted efforts to help enterprises resume production, in a move that also helps stabilize the global supply chain.
According to Wang, the company’s auto parts imports were affected as the epidemic quickly swept the world. “Thankfully, the local government quickly helped us find substitute domestic suppliers, which were key to the recovery of the automobile industrial chain.”
“Authorities also sent medical supplies, such as masks and disinfectants, to help us resume production at the very beginning of the epidemic,” Wang added.
The quick industrial production resumption across China has helped the company ensure the smooth operation of its global supply chain by exporting product parts to Europe and the United States via intercontinental trains and ships, said Steve Jin, plant manager of ASSA ABLOY Entrance System Suzhou Co., Ltd. in the eastern Chinese city of Suzhou. The ASSA ABLOY Group is a global leader in access solutions with factories in more than 70 countries.
“Orders for our swing doors have increased by 20 percent and 19 percent year on year in the American and European markets so far this year,” said Jin. “Manipulators and other components of these swing doors are made or purchased by the Suzhou plant.”
Xin Guobin, vice minister of MIIT, said China’s industrial performance has improved month by month with effective epidemic control and policy support.
Statistics showed that China’s industrial output went up by 4.8 percent year on year in June, picking up from the 4.4 percent and 3.9 percent expansion in May and April, respectively….
China launched urgent use of COVID-19 vaccines in July
________________________________
China has officially launched urgent use of COVID-19 vaccines, which were going through clinical trials, on July 22, a National Health Commission official said Saturday, a month after the move.
The move was announced on Saturday night by Zheng Zhongwei, director of the Development Center for Medical Science and Technology of the National Health Commission, who is leading China’s vaccine development work.
According to the vaccine management law, when a particularly severe public health emergency occurs, the vaccines in clinical trials could be used to protect medical and viral prevention personnel, border officers and other people working in stable city operation.
Zheng noted that in the next step, to prevent an outbreak in Autumn and Winter, the vaccines will be extended to people working in food markets, traffic systems and service sectors….
U.S. District Judge Barbara J. Rothstein issued an order temporarily blocked Vos from transferring a larger amount of funds to private/charter schools. The funds are to be allocated according to the number of low income or poor students within the schools. The funds can only be used for those students who qualify as poor. Obviously unless they are on financial aid of some type. most of the students in these schools would not qualify. DeVos hoped to override this federal stipulation by making her own allocation rule.
I had written previously on Congress being the only body amongst the three who can appropriate funding in a post here. In a letter to then Senator Sessions, the GAO had made it perfectly clear the Obama administration could not appropriate funds and only Congress can do so. DeVos qualifies as administration. DeVos can transfer funding from other programs which are nor declared as exclusive for one purpose as these funds are. The precedent exists to stymie her efforts to fund wealthier schools unless they have poor students.
I thought it was a good story of the courts taking action to again block this administration’s flawed actions.
Federal judge halts Betsy DeVos’s controversial rule sending coronavirus aid to private schools
By Valerie Strauss – Washington Post
A federal judge in Washington state temporarily blocked Education Secretary Betsy DeVos from enforcing a controversial rule that directs states to give private schools a bigger share of federal coronavirus aid than Congress had intended….
Chinese mainland reports 16 new COVID-19 cases, no new deaths
The Chinese mainland registered 16 new COVID-19 cases on Sunday, all from overseas, the Chinese health authority said on Monday, marking the eighth consecutive day without domestic transmissions.
No deaths linked to the coronavirus disease were recorded on Sunday, while 30 patients were discharged from hospitals.
The total number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland stands at 84,967 and the cumulative death toll at 4,634, with 374 asymptomatic patients under medical observation.
There has been no coronavirus death on the Chinese mainland since May 17. Since June there have been only 2 limited community clusters of infections, in Beijing and Urumqi in Xinjiang, both of which were contained with mass testing, contact tracing and quarantine, and both outbreaks ended in a few weeks. Imported coronavirus cases are caught at entry points with required testing. Asymptomatic cases are all quarantined.
Having apparently almost contained the coronavirus, the Israeli government incautiously opened schools and businesses and the result is a persistent community infection level that has now reached 104,154 cases in the small country as compared to 84,967 in all in China.
Uber, Lyft, and Lessons on the Market for Megan McArdle
By Dean Baker
Washington Post columnist Megan McArdle had a piece * today arguing that California is taking a big risk if it insists on requiring that Uber and Lyft treat their drivers as employees. The risk is that these companies have threatened to shut down their operations in the state, leaving their drivers out of jobs (actually Uber and Lyft insist they already don’t have jobs). According to McArdle, people then won’t be able to get rides and restaurants will no longer have access to delivery services. And this comes when the state is suffering through a horrible recession.
While that sounds really bad, fans of the market will be less troubled. There are actually many cab companies in California that compete with Uber and Lyft. (I’m not sure if they are complying with the state’s law on driver classification.) If Uber and Lyft leave the state, presumably these companies will largely fill the gap. There may also be some new startups who will enter to fill the vacuum.
Since there are not many economies of scale in driving cabs, the reduction in Uber and Lyft rides will be largely offset by an increase in rides by these other companies. They will then need more drivers, which should mean that positions will open up at these companies for the former Uber and Lyft drivers who want to take them.
There may be some drop off in demand, since both Uber and Lyft have been losing money, meaning that investors are effectively subsidizing their passengers’ rides. Profit-making cab companies may charge a higher price and therefore have somewhat less business, but the lost business will be far less than Uber and Lyft’s current business.
It is also worth noting that, while investors may not in general be very smart, they typically hold stock because they expect the company to be profitable, not just because the company is cool. At some point, Uber and Lyft will presumably raise their prices so that they actually make money.
The same story applies to restaurants and their delivery services. Many restaurants offer their own delivery service and there are other companies that do pick-ups and deliveries from restaurants. In short, California’s restaurants will not have to worry about not being able to get their food to customers if Uber and Lyft leave the state.
Chinese mainland reports 14 new COVID-19 cases, no new deaths
The Chinese mainland registered 14 new COVID-19 cases on Monday, all from overseas, the Chinese health authority said on Tuesday. This is the ninth consecutive day without domestic transmissions.
No deaths linked to the coronavirus disease were recorded on Monday, while 36 patients were discharged from hospitals.
The total number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland stands at 84,981 and the cumulative death toll at 4,634, with 374 asymptomatic patients under medical observation.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/20/opinion/stock-market-unemployment.html
August 20, 2020
Stocks Are Soaring. So Is Misery.
Optimism about Apple’s future profits won’t pay this month’s rent.
By Paul Krugman
On Tuesday, the S&P 500 stock index hit a record high. The next day, Apple became the first U.S. company in history to be valued at more than $2 trillion. Donald Trump is, of course, touting the stock market as proof that the economy has recovered from the coronavirus; too bad about those 173,000 dead Americans, but as he says, “It is what it is.”
But the economy probably doesn’t feel so great to the millions of workers who still haven’t gotten their jobs back and who have just seen their unemployment benefits slashed. The $600 a week supplemental benefit enacted in March has expired, and Trump’s purported replacement is basically a sick joke.
Even before the aid cutoff, the number of parents reporting that they were having trouble giving their children enough to eat was rising rapidly. That number will surely soar in the next few weeks. And we’re also about to see a huge wave of evictions, both because families are no longer getting the money they need to pay rent and because a temporary ban on evictions, like supplemental unemployment benefits, has just expired.
But how can there be such a disconnect between rising stocks and growing misery? Wall Street types, who do love their letter games, are talking about a “K-shaped recovery”: rising stock valuations and individual wealth at the top, falling incomes and deepening pain at the bottom. But that’s a description, not an explanation. What’s going on?
The first thing to note is that the real economy, as opposed to the financial markets, is still in terrible shape. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s weekly economic index suggests that the economy, although off its low point a few months ago, is still more deeply depressed than it was at any point during the recession that followed the 2008 financial crisis.
And this time around, job losses are concentrated among lower-paid workers — that is, precisely those Americans without the financial resources to ride out bad times.
What about stocks? The truth is that stock prices have never been closely tied to the state of the economy. As an old economists’ joke has it, the market has predicted nine of the last five recessions.
Stocks do get hit by financial crises, like the disruptions that followed the fall of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 and the brief freeze in credit markets back in March. Otherwise, stock prices are pretty disconnected from things like jobs or even G.D.P.
And these days, the disconnect is even greater than usual.
For the recent rise in the market has been largely driven by a small number of technology giants. And the market values of these companies have very little to do with their current profits, let alone the state of the economy in general. Instead, they’re all about investor perceptions of the fairly distant future.
Take the example of Apple, with its $2 trillion valuation. Apple has a price-earnings ratio — the ratio of its market valuation to its profits — of about 33. One way to look at that number is that only around 3 percent of the value investors place on the company reflects the money they expect it to make over the course of the next year. As long as they expect Apple to be profitable years from now, they barely care what will happen to the U.S. economy over the next few quarters.
Furthermore, the profits people expect Apple to make years from now loom especially large because, after all, where else are they going to put their money? Yields on U.S. government bonds, for example, are well below the expected rate of inflation.
And Apple’s valuation is actually less extreme than the valuations of other tech giants, like Amazon or Netflix.
So big tech stocks — and the people who own them — are riding high because investors believe that they’ll do very well in the long run. The depressed economy hardly matters.
Unfortunately, ordinary Americans get very little of their income from capital gains, and can’t live on rosy projections about their future prospects. Telling your landlord not to worry about your current inability to pay rent, because you’ll surely have a great job five years from now, will get you nowhere — or, more accurately, will get you kicked out of your apartment and put on the street.
So here’s the current state of America: Unemployment is still extremely high, largely because Trump and his allies first refused to take the coronavirus seriously, then pushed for an early reopening in a nation that met none of the conditions for resuming business as usual — and even now refuse to get firmly behind basic protective strategies like widespread mask requirements.
Despite this epic failure, the unemployed were kept afloat for months by federal aid, which helped avert both humanitarian and economic catastrophe. But now the aid has been cut off, with Trump and allies as unserious about the looming economic disaster as they were about the looming epidemiological disaster.
So everything suggests that even if the pandemic subsides — which is by no means guaranteed — we’re about to see a huge surge in national misery.
Oh, and stocks are up. Why, exactly, should we care?
https://cepr.net/the-burden-of-the-debt-lessons-for-biden-adviser-ted-kaufman/
August 20, 2020
The Burden of the Debt: Lessons for Biden Adviser Ted Kaufman
By DEAN BAKER
Top Biden adviser, and long-time personal friend, Ted Kaufman was seen * in the Wall Street Journal warning that the debt run up by the Trump administration will seriously limit what Biden will be able to do as president. This is wrong big time, and it is the sort of silly thing that no one in a Biden administration should ever be saying.
The government’s ability to spend is limited by the economy’s ability to produce, not the debt. If the government spends too much, it will lead to inflation. When we have a period of high unemployment, as is the case now and almost certainly will still be the case if Biden takes office in January, we are very far from hitting the economy’s inflation barriers.
It takes some very deliberate head-in-the-ground economics ** to argue that we are somehow limited by the size of the government debt. Japan provides a great model here. Its ratio of debt to GDP is more than 250 percent, more than twice the current U.S. level. Yet, the country is seeing new zero inflation and has a 0.03 percent interest rate on its long-term debt. The interest on its debt is near zero, since much of its debt carries a negative interest rate.
The idea that we would not address pressing needs, like climate change, child care, and health care because we are concerned about the debt burden is close to crazy. As long as the economy is not near its capacity, there is zero reason not to spend to address these priorities, and even when it does approach its capacity, we can impose higher taxes *** on the economy’s big winners over the last four decades.
I will also throw in one important item of logic that our deficit and debt hawks should be forced to deal with. When the government issues patent and copyright monopolies to pharmaceutical and software and other companies, this is a form of implicit debt. These monopolies are effectively private taxes that the government allows these companies to collect in exchange for their innovations or creative work.
The rent payments on these monopolies run into many hundreds of billions annually **** and quite possibly exceed $1 trillion annually. They dwarf interest payments on the debt. The debt whiners don’t get to exclude this implicit debt from their calculations just because they like the companies and individuals who benefit from these rents.
If people are having a hard time understanding the logic here, we can go back to pre-revolutionary France. To deal with its huge debt the government would sell off the right to collect specific taxes. I guess Mr. Kaufman and other deficit hawks would say this is fine since the country now had a lower debt burden, but that is not a serious position. It would be good if the economics profession could be united in explaining this simple logic to laypeople, but as is often said, economists are not very good at economics.
* https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-united-the-democratsits-not-likely-to-last-11597847147
** https://cepr.net/debt-and-deficits-with-the-coronavirus/
*** https://cepr.net/insight-the-simple-fix-for-corporate-income-tax-tax-stock-returns/
**** https://www.cepr.net/images/stories/reports/ip-2018-10.pdf
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/08/cloth-masks-do-protect-the-wearer-breathing-in-less-coronavirus-means-you-get-less-sick.html
Breathing in Less Coronavirus Means You Get Less Sick
When you breathe in a respiratory virus, it immediately begins hijacking any cells it lands near to turn them into virus production machines. The immune system tries to stop this process to halt the spread of the virus.
The amount of virus that you’re exposed to – called the viral inoculum, or dose – has a lot to do with how sick you get. If the exposure dose is very high, the immune response can become overwhelmed. Between the virus taking over huge numbers of cells and the immune system’s drastic efforts to contain the infection, a lot of damage is done to the body and a person can become very sick.
* * * * * *
Laboratory experiments have shown that good cloth masks and surgical masks could block at least 80% of viral particles from entering your nose and mouth.
* * * * * *
However, in places where everyone wears masks, the rate of asymptomatic infection seems to be much higher. In an outbreak on an Australian cruise ship called the Greg Mortimer in late March, the passengers were all given surgical masks and the staff were given N95 masks after the first case of COVID-19 was identified. Mask usage was apparently very high, and even though 128 of the 217 passengers and staff eventually tested positive for the coronavirus, 81% of the infected people remained asymptomatic.
Further evidence has come from two more recent outbreaks, the first at a seafood processing plant in Oregon and the second at a chicken processing plant in Arkansas. In both places, the workers were provided masks and required to wear them at all times. In the outbreaks from both plants, nearly 95% of infected people were asymptomatic.
Denis
I read such also. I think the assumption is in error. Covid replicates multiple times over. I do not believe if one gets a smaller dose, they will get a lesser version of Covid as a result of such. The LA Times did a nice cartoon for laymen such as us, It goes into detail explaining the replication process of Covid. How coronaviruses replicate inside you. WE have some people here who can take this explanation to another level if they wish to do so.
One other issue from contracting Covid, it can damage other organs besides the lungs which was seen from the beginning. One does not want to contract Covid in a small or large dose quantity. I find the presumptions by some that a difference in dosage to be inaccurate.
One small caveat, if you catch it early Covid is easier to treat and that is a matter of les than 1 week when it is not as evident.
editied.
August 20, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 5,746,272)
Deaths ( 177,424)
India
Cases ( 2,904,329)
Deaths ( 54,975)
Mexico
Cases ( 537,031)
Deaths ( 58,481)
UK
Cases ( 322,280)
Deaths ( 41,403)
Germany
Cases ( 231,284)
Deaths ( 9,324)
Canada
Cases ( 123,873)
Deaths ( 9,054)
China
Cases ( 84,895)
Deaths ( 4,634)
August 20, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
UK ( 609)
US ( 536)
Mexico ( 453)
Canada ( 240)
Germany ( 111)
India ( 40)
China ( 3)
Notice the ratios of deaths to coronavirus cases are 12.8% and 10.9% for the United Kingdom and Mexico respectively.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-21/Chinese-mainland-reports-22-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-T7Z0lT7Bzq/index.html
August 21, 2020
Chinese mainland reports 22 new COVID-19 cases, no new deaths
The Chinese mainland registered 22 new cases of COVID-19 on Thursday, all from overseas, the Chinese health authority said on Friday. This was the fifth consecutive day without domestic transmissions.
No deaths linked to the coronavirus disease were recorded on Thursday, while 47 patients were discharged from hospitals.
The total number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland stands at 84,917 and the cumulative death toll at 4,634, with 353 asymptomatic patients under medical observation.
Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-21/Chinese-mainland-reports-22-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-T7Z0lT7Bzq/img/6ad7fb743cf54fe0a1694c8a4d61c81c/6ad7fb743cf54fe0a1694c8a4d61c81c.jpeg
Chinese mainland new imported cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-21/Chinese-mainland-reports-22-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-T7Z0lT7Bzq/img/9558fd481abb41bc9e55f337ec7d24a1/9558fd481abb41bc9e55f337ec7d24a1.jpeg
Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-21/Chinese-mainland-reports-22-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-T7Z0lT7Bzq/img/5ba7d1ec075e4957b1d85f330edcf9da/5ba7d1ec075e4957b1d85f330edcf9da.jpeg
August 21, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 5,767,836)
Deaths ( 177,803)
August 21, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 5,777,110)
Deaths ( 178,068)
August 21, 2020
Coronavirus
Israel
Cases ( 100,716)
Deaths ( 809)
Deaths per million ( 88)
———————————–
July 4, 2020
Coronavirus
Israel
Cases ( 29,170)
Deaths ( 330)
Deaths per million ( 36)
How severe the incautious opening of Israel has been, after the coronavirus spread had appeared to be controlled, can be understood in realizing that little Israel has experienced 100,716 infections in all now, while China has experienced 84,917.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=s935
January 4, 2018
Federal Government Non-Post Office Employment, 1980-2018
[ Though this is a Census year, unlike other Census years there has been no added federal employment. Of course, the coronavirus spread is partly the reason but the completion of the Census will be affected. ]
August 21, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 5,784,064)
Deaths ( 178,972)
August 21, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 5,789,552)
Deaths ( 179,015)
Good morning Anne:
5,476,266 cases on the 14th and 5,789,522 cases on the 21st or a total of 313,286 new cases from your numbers. Does this make sense?
171,535 total deaths recorded on the 14th and 179,015 breached on the 21st. A total of 7,480 deaths for the last week.
Deaths should lag new by weeks.
Daniel Larison @DanielLarison
And the hits keep on coming Thirteen of 15-member U.N. Security Council oppose U.S. push for Iran sanctions
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-iran-un/thirteen-of-15-member-u-n-security-council-oppose-u-s-push-for-iran-sanctions-idUSKBN25H1Q5
Thirteen of 15-member U.N. Security Council oppose U.S. push for Iran sanctions
The United States was further isolated on Friday over its bid to reimpose international sanctions on Iran with 13 countries on the 15-member U.N. Security Council expressing their opposition, arguing that Washington’s move is void given it is using a process agreed under a nuclear deal that it quit two years ago.
5:22 PM · Aug 21, 2020
As for the spread of the coronavirus, cases in the southern hemisphere are important to pay attention to since these are the southern winter months and the spread in the south tells us to expect the same in the north barring close control before the northern winter.
August 21, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 5,796,727)
Deaths ( 179,200)
India
Cases ( 2,973,368)
Deaths ( 55,928)
Mexico
Cases ( 543,806)
Deaths ( 59,106)
UK
Cases ( 323,313)
Deaths ( 41,405)
Germany
Cases ( 233,021)
Deaths ( 9,328)
Canada
Cases ( 124,372)
Deaths ( 9,064)
China
Cases ( 84,917)
Deaths ( 4,634)
August 21, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
UK ( 609)
US ( 541)
Mexico ( 458)
Canada ( 240)
Germany ( 111)
India ( 40)
China ( 3)
Notice the ratios of deaths to coronavirus cases are 12.8% and 10.9% for the United Kingdom and Mexico respectively.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-22/Chinese-mainland-reports-22-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-T9DbyvkLKg/index.html
August 22, 2020
Chinese mainland reports 22 new COVID-19 cases, no new deaths
The Chinese mainland registered 22 new cases of COVID-19 on Friday, all from overseas, the Chinese health authority said on Saturday. This was the sixth consecutive day without domestic transmissions.
No deaths linked to the coronavirus disease were recorded on Friday, while 59 patients were discharged from hospitals.
The total number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland stands at 84,939 and the cumulative death toll at 4,634, with 366 asymptomatic patients under medical observation.
Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-22/Chinese-mainland-reports-22-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-T9DbyvkLKg/img/5f69747269ce4dbc9dabb6fda14b865a/5f69747269ce4dbc9dabb6fda14b865a.jpeg
Chinese mainland new imported cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-22/Chinese-mainland-reports-22-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-T9DbyvkLKg/img/ea443252b68c46789ed6df69dbe159fe/ea443252b68c46789ed6df69dbe159fe.jpeg
Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-22/Chinese-mainland-reports-22-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-T9DbyvkLKg/img/5289af6accff41e1a5a9ae071962d106/5289af6accff41e1a5a9ae071962d106.jpeg
August 22, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 5,802,145)
Deaths ( 179,290)
August 22, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 5,807,637)
Deaths ( 179,410)
Branko Milanovic @BrankoMilan
Four jumbo jets keep on crashing every day in the United States for six months now and the show just goes on like nothing is happening.
11:15 PM · Aug 21, 2020
August 22, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 5,812,595)
Deaths ( 179,541)
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/22/us/college-campus-covid.html
August 22, 2020
Stop Campus Partying to Slow the Virus? Colleges Try but Often Fail
Coronavirus outbreaks at colleges reopening for fall classes underscore the difficulties of policing student behavior.
By Shawn Hubler and Anemona Hartocollis
At Cornell University, students started arriving over the past week hoping for a safe and socially distanced fall semester. Jason Chang already has doubts.
A 24-year-old doctoral student, Mr. Chang oversees undergraduates in the dorm where he lives. As the first wave of residents checked in, he caught one student out wandering the halls three times when she was supposed to be quarantining.
Another student worker got a phone call from an undergraduate who, from the background noise, appeared to be at an unauthorized party. Another caught two students in supposed isolation hanging out together in a single dorm room.
“Constant insanity and madness,” said Mr. Chang, who this fall will share supervision of up to 300 dorm residents with seven other graduate and undergraduate students, all while working on his own Ph.D. in biomedical engineering. “That’s been my life this week.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/22/us/school-reopenings-coronavirus-reporting.html
August 22, 2020
Covid in the Classroom? Some Schools Are Keeping It Quiet
Some states and school districts provide detailed data on school outbreaks. Others choose to keep such information under wraps.
By Dan Levin
On the first day of school in Camden County, Ga., local Facebook groups were already buzzing with rumors that a teacher had tested positive for the coronavirus. The next day, a warning went out to school administrators: Keep teachers quiet.
“Staff who test positive are not to notify any other staff members, parents of their students or any other person/entity that they may have exposed them,” Jon Miller, the district’s deputy superintendent, wrote in a confidential email on Aug. 5.
In the weeks since, parents, students and teachers in the coastal community on the Florida border have heard by word of mouth of more positive cases linked to district schools. Some parents said they had been called by local officials and told that their children should quarantine.
But even as fears of an outbreak have grown, the district has refused to publicly confirm a single case, either to the local community or The New York Times.
August 22, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 5,817,443)
Deaths ( 179,592)
August 22, 2020
Coronavirus
Israel
Cases ( 101,856)
Deaths ( 819)
Deaths per million ( 89)
———————————–
July 4, 2020
Coronavirus
Israel
Cases ( 29,170)
Deaths ( 330)
Deaths per million ( 36)
How severe a toll the incautious opening of schools and businesses in Israel has taken, after the coronavirus spread had appeared to be controlled, can be understood in realizing that little Israel has experienced 101,856 infections in all now, while China has experienced 84,939.
India
Cases ( 3,043,436)
Deaths ( 56,846)
Serious, Critical Cases ( 2,279,900)
The number of Indian cases now categorized as serious-critical already represents a significant long-term healthcare problem for India.
UK
Cases ( 324,601)
Deaths ( 41,423)
France
Cases ( 238,002)
Deaths ( 30,512)
Germany
Cases ( 233,355)
Deaths ( 9,330)
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
UK ( 610)
France ( 467)
Germany ( 111)
Coronavirus cases are presently increasing in the UK, France and Germany. Also, a comparison of outcomes in the 3 countries should be instructive.
August 22, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 5,823,877)
Deaths ( 179,737)
Correction –
This was a temporary misprint, which was why I had never noticed before:
India
Serious, Critical Cases ( 8,944)
No special “serious, critical” problem here other than the severe number of cases.
anne;
Can you do the same for the US?
August 22, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 5,841,428)
Deaths ( 180,174)
Serious, Critical Cases ( 16,739)
The number of serious, critical coronavirus patients in the United States has been above 16,000 each day for months. Often above 17,000. Many of these patients recover, but by my understanding will still encounter significant health problems in future.
August 22, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 5,841,428)
Deaths ( 180,174)
India
Cases ( 3,043,436)
Deaths ( 56,846)
Mexico
Cases ( 549,734)
Deaths ( 59,610)
UK
Cases ( 324,601)
Deaths ( 41,423)
Germany
Cases ( 233,857)
Deaths ( 9,331)
Canada
Cases ( 124,629)
Deaths ( 9,071)
China
Cases ( 84,939)
Deaths ( 4,634)
August 22, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
UK ( 610)
US ( 544)
Mexico ( 462)
Canada ( 240)
Germany ( 111)
India ( 41)
China ( 3)
Notice the ratios of deaths to coronavirus cases are 12.8% and 10.8% for the United Kingdom and Mexico respectively.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-23/Chinese-mainland-reports-12-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-TbkLBABVFS/index.html
August 23, 2020
Chinese mainland reports 12 new COVID-19 cases, no new deaths
The Chinese mainland registered 12 new cases of COVID-19 on Saturday, all from overseas, the Chinese health authority said on Sunday, marking the seventh consecutive day without domestic transmissions.
No deaths linked to the coronavirus disease were recorded on Saturday, while 44 patients were discharged from hospitals.
The total number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland stands at 84,951 and the cumulative death toll at 4,634, with 370 asymptomatic patients under medical observation.
Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-23/Chinese-mainland-reports-12-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-TbkLBABVFS/img/7012a24896b4413dba8373f20d326848/7012a24896b4413dba8373f20d326848.jpeg
Chinese mainland new imported cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-23/Chinese-mainland-reports-12-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-TbkLBABVFS/img/dfbc21c258a0401f94c58c06d013e540/dfbc21c258a0401f94c58c06d013e540.jpeg
Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-23/Chinese-mainland-reports-12-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-TbkLBABVFS/img/731b88ad29b346949b6a1ae9aa292cca/731b88ad29b346949b6a1ae9aa292cca.jpeg
Strange that the Democratic convention featured a specific coronavirus speech by Cuomo. Consider that if New York is not in the bag, then Biden definitely will lose. So who was Cuomo supposed to be influencing here? Look at the data and try to say that voters in Wisconsin, North Carolina or Florida are really going to say something like ‘I sure wish a guy like Cuomo had been our Governor?’ I understand that Democrats want to portray New York as a big success against a horrible situation, but they shouldn’t really want this as part of the campaign as the supporting argument is very nuanced and the counter is brutally straightforward and involves objective measures of mortality and discussions of nursing home practices. The politics of it are not helpful….well they are helpful to Trump, actually. I believe that there are another 5 or 6 weeks to go before Democrats need to pick a COVID campaign strategy. Consider that Biden is already out reminding voters that maybe he will lockdown the country next year. Whatever possible favorable impact this might have today is irrelevant if that pledge does not seem to make sense in October. Few in Wisconsin will react favorably to this “threat” and the best chance that it will be anything other than a negative is if there is a lot more COVID in Wisconsin prior to the election. If that is what he thinks likely, fine, but again what actually is gained by not waiting to see it happen (or not)?
August 23, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 5,847,413)
Deaths ( 180,278)
August 23, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 5,852,051)
Deaths ( 180,305)
anne:
20 days and we will surpass 200,000 deaths if the trend continues. Sometime around September 11 we should be at 200,000, if August 21 is used as the start of a countdown. It could easily be 250,000 by the time of the election. Republicans are calling themselves “The Storm” on to Democrats as taken from their and the RNC Chairman’s interpretation of the Bible’s Psalm 29. To me, they are a plague.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-23/How-the-BRI-is-defying-expectations-in-2020–TbnurqZzGM/index.html
August 23, 2020
How the BRI is defying expectations in 2020
By Tom Fowdy
The year 2020 has been one of the dreariest years in global economic history. The imposition of worldwide grinding lockdowns and the decimation of recreational and tourist industries have created profound challenges for global prosperity and wellbeing, with countries experiencing overwhelming surges in unemployment and falls in gross domestic product.
Yet in the midst of the chaos and uncertainty, there is one program which has ultimately defied expectations, that is China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Despite the frosty climate for global investment which has of course slowed down new Belt and Road related lending, newly published data nevertheless found China’s non-financial direct investments in Belt and Road countries (thus investments by private companies) stood at 10.27 billion U.S. dollars in the first seven months, up by 28.9 percent year on year, with foreign contracted projects standing at 67.18 billion U.S. dollars in the same period.
In addition, projects created by the BRI have also come to fruition. China-Europe railway trains have surged by 68 percent in the past year, with cargo having increased by 73 percent, with 1,232 trains having made journeys from Chinese cities to European destinations. The increases have been bolstered by the COVID-19, proving faster, more efficient and cheaper than maritime and flight cargo.
Western commentators have persistently sought to push a confirmation bias that they believe the BRI is failing, or doomed to fail. If it is not described as a “debt trap” or in another malign ways, then its investments are typically presented as incompetent or inefficient, with a focus on how countries are apparently “pushing back” against it or how it is “unravelling.”
Thus not surprisingly, the early COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a chorus of typical op-eds which heralded the virus as “the undoing” of the project. However, far from crippling China, evidence seems to suggest the pandemic has accelerated the program as a route to economic recovery, and is now changing Eurasian supply lines accordingly….
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-08/23/c_139312332.htm
August 23, 2020
China’s production resumption stabilizes global supply chain
— Governments at different levels in China have made concerted efforts to help enterprises resume production, in a move that helps stabilize the global supply chain.
— During the COVID-19 epidemic, China’s manufacturing sector has withstood the “stress test” from the virus, and helped ensure a steady global supply of medical goods, as well as stable industrial and supply chains, said Xin Guobin, vice minister of industry and information technology.
— During the epidemic, China’s business environment and stable industrial supply chain have won widespread recognition from foreign investors.
NANJING — Chinese carmaker SAIC MAXUS Automotive Co., Ltd. has managed to buck the trend of a global automobile industry recession amid the COVID-19 pandemic, with vehicle sales rising by 26.4 percent year on year in July.
“Our team has gone through all of our 1,288 suppliers to sort out possible problems early during the epidemic, which is full of twists,” said Wang Ying, general manager of SAIC MAXUS’s Nanjing Plant in east China’s Jiangsu Province.
“We even requested the local authorities to help transfer parts and even equipment from Wuhan, a strategically important city of China’s automobile industry that was hard hit during the epidemic,” said Wang.
Thanks to the resilient supply chain in the world’s largest auto market, SAIC MAXUS resumed full operations of its four manufacturing bases on Feb. 24.
China’s broader auto industry has seen a recovery. Data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) showed that the country’s automobile production and sales increased by 21.9 percent and 16.4 percent, respectively, year on year in July.
BACK ON TRACK
Governments at different levels in China have made concerted efforts to help enterprises resume production, in a move that also helps stabilize the global supply chain.
According to Wang, the company’s auto parts imports were affected as the epidemic quickly swept the world. “Thankfully, the local government quickly helped us find substitute domestic suppliers, which were key to the recovery of the automobile industrial chain.”
“Authorities also sent medical supplies, such as masks and disinfectants, to help us resume production at the very beginning of the epidemic,” Wang added.
The quick industrial production resumption across China has helped the company ensure the smooth operation of its global supply chain by exporting product parts to Europe and the United States via intercontinental trains and ships, said Steve Jin, plant manager of ASSA ABLOY Entrance System Suzhou Co., Ltd. in the eastern Chinese city of Suzhou. The ASSA ABLOY Group is a global leader in access solutions with factories in more than 70 countries.
“Orders for our swing doors have increased by 20 percent and 19 percent year on year in the American and European markets so far this year,” said Jin. “Manipulators and other components of these swing doors are made or purchased by the Suzhou plant.”
Xin Guobin, vice minister of MIIT, said China’s industrial performance has improved month by month with effective epidemic control and policy support.
Statistics showed that China’s industrial output went up by 4.8 percent year on year in June, picking up from the 4.4 percent and 3.9 percent expansion in May and April, respectively….
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1198524.shtml
August 22, 2020
China launched urgent use of COVID-19 vaccines in July
________________________________
China has officially launched urgent use of COVID-19 vaccines, which were going through clinical trials, on July 22, a National Health Commission official said Saturday, a month after the move.
The move was announced on Saturday night by Zheng Zhongwei, director of the Development Center for Medical Science and Technology of the National Health Commission, who is leading China’s vaccine development work.
According to the vaccine management law, when a particularly severe public health emergency occurs, the vaccines in clinical trials could be used to protect medical and viral prevention personnel, border officers and other people working in stable city operation.
Zheng noted that in the next step, to prevent an outbreak in Autumn and Winter, the vaccines will be extended to people working in food markets, traffic systems and service sectors….
Interesting article today; Federal judge halts Betsy DeVos’s controversial rule sending coronavirus aid to private schools in WaPo.
U.S. District Judge Barbara J. Rothstein issued an order temporarily blocked Vos from transferring a larger amount of funds to private/charter schools. The funds are to be allocated according to the number of low income or poor students within the schools. The funds can only be used for those students who qualify as poor. Obviously unless they are on financial aid of some type. most of the students in these schools would not qualify. DeVos hoped to override this federal stipulation by making her own allocation rule.
I had written previously on Congress being the only body amongst the three who can appropriate funding in a post here. In a letter to then Senator Sessions, the GAO had made it perfectly clear the Obama administration could not appropriate funds and only Congress can do so. DeVos qualifies as administration. DeVos can transfer funding from other programs which are nor declared as exclusive for one purpose as these funds are. The precedent exists to stymie her efforts to fund wealthier schools unless they have poor students.
I thought it was a good story of the courts taking action to again block this administration’s flawed actions.
August 23, 2020
Coronavirus
New York
Cases ( 460,460)
Deaths ( 32,967)
Deaths per million ( 1,695)
————————————-
Germany
Cases ( 234,489)
Deaths ( 9,332)
Deaths per million ( 111)
Senator McSally(R) Suggests That Supporters lose Weight by skipping one meal to fund Her Campaign “In an audio recording obtained by Arizona’s Family, the Republican senator who was endorsed by Trump, explained to her audience that more money would be needed to defeat her opponent Mark Kelly whose fundraising efforts have slotted him above her.”
That sounds more like she is planning to retire when she loses to Mark Kelly.
Run:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2020/08/23/federal-judge-halts-betsy-devoss-controversial-rule-sending-coronavirus-aid-private-schools/
August 23, 2020
Federal judge halts Betsy DeVos’s controversial rule sending coronavirus aid to private schools
By Valerie Strauss – Washington Post
A federal judge in Washington state temporarily blocked Education Secretary Betsy DeVos from enforcing a controversial rule that directs states to give private schools a bigger share of federal coronavirus aid than Congress had intended….
Thank you
August 23, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 5,874,146)
Deaths ( 180,604)
India
Cases ( 3,105,185)
Deaths ( 57,692)
Mexico
Cases ( 556,216)
Deaths ( 60,254)
UK
Cases ( 325,642)
Deaths ( 41,429)
France
Cases ( 242,899)
Deaths ( 30,513)
Germany
Cases ( 234,489)
Deaths ( 9,332)
Canada
Cases ( 124,896)
Deaths ( 9,073)
China
Cases ( 84,951)
Deaths ( 4,634)
August 23, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
UK ( 610)
US ( 545)
Mexico ( 467)
France ( 467)
Canada ( 240)
Germany ( 111)
India ( 42)
China ( 3)
Notice the ratios of deaths to coronavirus cases are 12.7%, 12.6% and 10.8% for the United Kingdom, France and Mexico respectively.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-24/Chinese-mainland-reports-16-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-TcXhWznqog/index.html
August 24, 2020
Chinese mainland reports 16 new COVID-19 cases, no new deaths
The Chinese mainland registered 16 new COVID-19 cases on Sunday, all from overseas, the Chinese health authority said on Monday, marking the eighth consecutive day without domestic transmissions.
No deaths linked to the coronavirus disease were recorded on Sunday, while 30 patients were discharged from hospitals.
The total number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland stands at 84,967 and the cumulative death toll at 4,634, with 374 asymptomatic patients under medical observation.
Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-24/Chinese-mainland-reports-16-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-TcXhWznqog/img/80d2154fe2764be584d65754a0dfe20d/80d2154fe2764be584d65754a0dfe20d.jpeg
Chinese mainland new imported cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-24/Chinese-mainland-reports-16-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-TcXhWznqog/img/16825b84ae8842f4a7d3c790de7fa32f/16825b84ae8842f4a7d3c790de7fa32f.jpeg
Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-24/Chinese-mainland-reports-16-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-TcXhWznqog/img/b7b713056d7c4369a2f0c4a18732371d/b7b713056d7c4369a2f0c4a18732371d.jpeg
There has been no coronavirus death on the Chinese mainland since May 17. Since June there have been only 2 limited community clusters of infections, in Beijing and Urumqi in Xinjiang, both of which were contained with mass testing, contact tracing and quarantine, and both outbreaks ended in a few weeks. Imported coronavirus cases are caught at entry points with required testing. Asymptomatic cases are all quarantined.
August 24, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 5,890,659)
Deaths ( 180,761)
August 24, 2020
Coronavirus
Israel
Cases ( 104,154)
Deaths ( 844)
Deaths per million ( 92)
———————————–
July 4, 2020
Coronavirus
Israel
Cases ( 29,170)
Deaths ( 330)
Deaths per million ( 36)
Having apparently almost contained the coronavirus, the Israeli government incautiously opened schools and businesses and the result is a persistent community infection level that has now reached 104,154 cases in the small country as compared to 84,967 in all in China.
August 24, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 5,894,789)
Deaths ( 180,801)
August 24, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 5,901,412)
Deaths ( 180,872)
https://cepr.net/uber-lyft-and-lessons-on-the-market-for-megan-mcardle/
August 24, 2020
Uber, Lyft, and Lessons on the Market for Megan McArdle
By Dean Baker
Washington Post columnist Megan McArdle had a piece * today arguing that California is taking a big risk if it insists on requiring that Uber and Lyft treat their drivers as employees. The risk is that these companies have threatened to shut down their operations in the state, leaving their drivers out of jobs (actually Uber and Lyft insist they already don’t have jobs). According to McArdle, people then won’t be able to get rides and restaurants will no longer have access to delivery services. And this comes when the state is suffering through a horrible recession.
While that sounds really bad, fans of the market will be less troubled. There are actually many cab companies in California that compete with Uber and Lyft. (I’m not sure if they are complying with the state’s law on driver classification.) If Uber and Lyft leave the state, presumably these companies will largely fill the gap. There may also be some new startups who will enter to fill the vacuum.
Since there are not many economies of scale in driving cabs, the reduction in Uber and Lyft rides will be largely offset by an increase in rides by these other companies. They will then need more drivers, which should mean that positions will open up at these companies for the former Uber and Lyft drivers who want to take them.
There may be some drop off in demand, since both Uber and Lyft have been losing money, meaning that investors are effectively subsidizing their passengers’ rides. Profit-making cab companies may charge a higher price and therefore have somewhat less business, but the lost business will be far less than Uber and Lyft’s current business.
It is also worth noting that, while investors may not in general be very smart, they typically hold stock because they expect the company to be profitable, not just because the company is cool. At some point, Uber and Lyft will presumably raise their prices so that they actually make money.
The same story applies to restaurants and their delivery services. Many restaurants offer their own delivery service and there are other companies that do pick-ups and deliveries from restaurants. In short, California’s restaurants will not have to worry about not being able to get their food to customers if Uber and Lyft leave the state.
* https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/08/23/californias-high-stakes-game-chicken-with-uber-lyft/
August 24, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 5,915,630)
Deaths ( 181,114)
India
Cases ( 3,164,881)
Deaths ( 58,546)
Mexico
Cases ( 560,164)
Deaths ( 60,480)
UK
Cases ( 326,614)
Deaths ( 41,433)
France
Cases ( 244,854)
Deaths ( 30,528)
Germany
Cases ( 236,117)
Deaths ( 9,336)
Canada
Cases ( 125,647)
Deaths ( 9,083)
China
Cases ( 84,967)
Deaths ( 4,634)
August 24, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
UK ( 610)
US ( 547)
Mexico ( 468)
France ( 468)
Canada ( 240)
Germany ( 111)
India ( 42)
China ( 3)
Notice the ratios of deaths to coronavirus cases are 12.7%, 12.5% and 10.8% for the United Kingdom, France and Mexico respectively.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-25/Chinese-mainland-reports-14-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-TeAW0OBu4o/index.html
August 25, 2020
Chinese mainland reports 14 new COVID-19 cases, no new deaths
The Chinese mainland registered 14 new COVID-19 cases on Monday, all from overseas, the Chinese health authority said on Tuesday. This is the ninth consecutive day without domestic transmissions.
No deaths linked to the coronavirus disease were recorded on Monday, while 36 patients were discharged from hospitals.
The total number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland stands at 84,981 and the cumulative death toll at 4,634, with 374 asymptomatic patients under medical observation.
Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-25/Chinese-mainland-reports-14-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-TeAW0OBu4o/img/cde61e79a2214592b755393f38f2a362/cde61e79a2214592b755393f38f2a362.jpeg
Chinese mainland new imported cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-25/Chinese-mainland-reports-14-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-TeAW0OBu4o/img/46f7c05d7fd0402689433dbfd7d53651/46f7c05d7fd0402689433dbfd7d53651.jpeg
Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-25/Chinese-mainland-reports-14-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-TeAW0OBu4o/img/668219b83443482495a1d5689aaf2818/668219b83443482495a1d5689aaf2818.jpeg
(i)test(i) (b)test(b) test
You forgot the slash on the second i and b. It comes just before the i or b. Ni parenthesis. Use carrots
Not sure what a carrot is — remember slash now though.
(b)test(/b) (i)test(/i)
test test
🙂