The Next Disaster Is Just a Few Days Away
Millions of unemployed Americans face imminent catastrophe.
By Paul Krugman
Some of us knew from the beginning that Donald Trump wasn’t up to the job of being president, that he wouldn’t be able to deal with a crisis that wasn’t of his own making. Still, the magnitude of America’s coronavirus failure has shocked even the cynics.
At this point Florida alone has an average daily death toll roughly equal to that of the whole European Union, which has 20 times its population.
How did this happen? One key element in our deadly debacle has been extreme shortsightedness: At every stage of the crisis Trump and his allies refused to acknowledge or get ahead of disasters everyone paying attention clearly saw coming.
Blithe denials that Covid-19 posed a threat gave way to blithe denials that rapid reopening would lead to a new surge in infections; now that the surge is upon us, Republican governors are responding sluggishly and grudgingly, while the White House is doing nothing at all.
And now another disaster — this time economic rather than epidemiological — is just days away.
To understand the cliff we’re about to plunge over, you need to know that while America’s overall handling of Covid-19 was catastrophically bad, one piece — the economic response — was actually better than many of us expected. The CARES Act, largely devised by Democrats but enacted by a bipartisan majority late in March, had flaws in both design and implementation, yet it did a lot both to alleviate hardship and to limit the economic fallout from the pandemic.
In particular, the act provided vastly increased aid to workers idled by lockdowns imposed to curb the spread of the coronavirus. U.S. unemployment insurance is normally a weak protection against adversity: Many workers aren’t covered, and even those who are usually receive only a small fraction of their previous wages. But the CARES Act both expanded coverage, for example to gig workers, and sharply increased benefits, adding $600 to every recipient’s weekly check.
These enhanced benefits did double duty. They meant that there was far less misery than one might otherwise have expected from a crisis that temporarily eliminated 22 million jobs; by some measures poverty actually declined.
They also helped sustain those parts of the economy that weren’t locked down. Without those emergency benefits, laid-off workers would have been forced to slash spending across the board. This would have generated a whole second round of job loss and economic contraction, as well as creating a huge wave of missed rental payments and evictions.
So enhanced unemployment benefits have been a crucial lifeline to tens of millions of Americans. Unfortunately, all of those beneficiaries are now just a few days from being thrown overboard.
For that $600 weekly supplement — which accounts for most of the expansion of benefits — applies only to benefit weeks that end “on or before July 31.” July 31 is a Friday. State unemployment benefit weeks typically end on Saturday or Sunday. So the supplement will end, in most places, on July 25 or 26, and millions of workers will see their incomes plunge 60 percent or more just a few days from now.
Two months have gone by since the House passed a relief measure that would, among other things, extend enhanced benefits through the rest of the year. But neither Senate Republicans nor the White House has shown any sense of urgency about the looming crisis. Why?
Part of the answer is that Trump and his officials are, as always, far behind the coronavirus curve. They’re still talking about a rapid, V-shape recovery that will bring us quickly back to full employment, making special aid to the unemployed unnecessary; they’re apparently oblivious to what everyone else sees — an economy that is stumbling again as the coronavirus surges back.
Delusions about the state of the economic recovery, in turn, allow conservatives to indulge in one of their favorite zombie ideas — that helping the unemployed in a depressed economy hurts job creation, by discouraging people from taking jobs.
Worrying about employment incentives in the midst of a pandemic is even crazier than worrying about those incentives in the aftermath of a financial crisis, but it seems to be at the core of White House thinking (or maybe that’s “thinking”) about economic policy right now.
One last thing: My sense is that Republicans have a delusional view of their own bargaining position. They don’t seem to realize that they, not the Democrats, will be blamed if millions are plunged into penury because relief is delayed; to the extent that they’re willing to act at all, they still imagine that they can extract concessions like a blanket exemption of businesses from pandemic liability.
Maybe the prospect of catastrophe will concentrate Republican minds, but it seems more likely that we’re heading for weeks if not months of extreme financial distress for millions of Americans, distress that will hobble the economy as a whole. This disaster didn’t need to happen; but you can say the same thing about most of what has gone wrong in this country lately.
Chinese mainland reports 10 new COVID-19 cases, no new deaths
Ten new COVID-19 cases were recorded on the Chinese mainland on Thursday, 9 from overseas, and 1 local transmission in northwest China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. The Chinese health authorities added that there were no new deaths on Thursday.
The total number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland stands at 83,622, and the cumulative death toll at 4,634, with 104 asymptomatic patients under medical observation.
Beijing recorded no new domestically transmitted COVID-19 cases on Thursday for the 11th day in a row. The total number of cases since a cluster outbreak was discovered at Xinfadi market on June 11 stands at 335, the municipal health commission said on Friday.
An additional 10 patients have recovered, taking the total to 177.
No asymptomatic cases were reported on Thursday either, though a total of 17 asymptomatic people are still under medical observation, the health commission said.
Xincun Sub-district in Fengtai District adjusted its risk level from medium to low and lowered the total number of medium-risk areas in the city to 2 – Majiapu Sub-district and Huaxiang Township in Fengtai District. All other regions in Beijing are low-risk.
The authorities said they will strictly prevent cases from overseas, strengthen epidemic prevention at airports and customs offices and implement measures such as quarantine for inbound travelers.
Officials said they will carry out risk screening for frozen food and meat and strengthen the supervision of imported cold chain foods, alongside follow-up disposal work at Xinfadi market. Beijing will also promote the standardized management, transformation and upgrading of markets.
China’s economy rebounds in Q2 from epidemic headwinds
BEIJING — China’s economy bounced back to growth in the second quarter (Q2) this year as the country gradually resumed work and production after effectively containing the COVID-19 epidemic, official data showed on Thursday.
The country’s gross domestic product expanded by 3.2 percent year on year in Q2, following a 6.8 percent contraction in Q1, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
It has not been easy for China to contain the epidemic in a short time and reverse an economic downturn, said NBS spokesperson Liu Aihua.
In the second quarter, while witnessing a gradual rebound in major economic indicators and holding employment and inflation levels stable, China has managed to ensure people’s basic livelihoods and promoted new economic sectors, Liu said.
RESTORATIVE GROWTH
China’s value-added industrial output went up by 4.4 percent year on year in Q2 as factories stepped up production amid COVID-19 control. Meanwhile, fixed-asset investments went down by 3.1 percent year on year in H1, narrowing from the 6.3-percent decline in the first five months.
Retail sales, a gauge of consumption, declined by 3.9 percent year on year in Q2, shrinking by 15.1 percentage points from the first quarter’s decrease.
The Chinese economy overcame the adverse impact of the epidemic in the first half gradually and demonstrated a momentum of recovery, further manifesting its development resilience and vitality, the NBS said.
The bounce was bolstered by the surge of new engines, new businesses, and new models. Investment in the pharmaceutical industry and e-commerce services, springing up amid COVID-19, registered a sharp rise of over 10 percent and 30 percent respectively.
Meanwhile, China registered better-than-expected foreign trade performances in H1, with exports and imports both rising in June.
To shore up the economy against the epidemic shock, the government has rolled out a raft of measures, including more fiscal spending, tax relief, and cuts in lending rates and banks’ reserve requirements to revive the coronavirus-ravaged economy, and support employment.
Thursday’s data also showed China’s job market improved slightly in June, with the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas standing at 5.7 percent, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.
FURTHER RECOVERY EXPECTED
Liu said she expects China’s economy to continue recovering in the second half of the year, powered by the steady economic recovery in H1, rapidly growing new industries and business models, as well as the strong support from macro policies.
But she also stressed that China’s economic recovery is still under pressure, given the continuing global spread of the epidemic, the evolving impact of the epidemic on the global economy, and the noticeably mounting external risks and challenges.
The worries were echoed by Wen Bin, chief analyst at China Minsheng Bank, who said in a co-authored research note that further efforts should be made to enhance macro-control and expand domestic demand, citing external uncertainties and the lingering impact of the epidemic.
But Wen is confident that with further containment of the virus, and continued implementation of counter-cyclical policies, China’s economy will swing back to expansion in the first three quarters and achieve moderate growth for the whole year.
In its latest projection, the International Monetary Fund said China is expected to be the only major economy that could see growth this year by growing 1 percent in 2020, followed by an 8.2-percent growth in 2021.
Yang Yuanqing, Lenovo Group’s chairman and CEO, said “smart” ways of consumption, production, and working emerged during the epidemic, and will continue even after the virus is contained. This would drive China’s economic recovery, and become an important engine for global growth.
In light of the adverse impact of COVID-19, China has set no specific targets for economic growth for this year, and priority will be given to stabilizing employment and ensuring living standards.
The country has laid a decisive foundation for completing the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects, and is striving to fulfill the tasks and goals for the whole year, Liu said.
WASHINGTON — Secretary of State Mike Pompeo delivered a divisive speech on Thursday calling for the United States to ground its human rights policy more prominently in religious liberty and property rights.
Mr. Pompeo’s speech, at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, came as he announced the release of a report created by a panel he commissioned last year to suggest how American human rights policy could better reflect the “nation’s founding principles.”
“It’s important for every American, and for every American diplomat, to recognize how our founders understood unalienable rights,” Mr. Pompeo said. “Foremost among these rights are property rights and religious liberty.”
Human rights scholars have criticized Mr. Pompeo’s panel since its inception, noting it was filled with conservatives who were intent on promoting views against abortion and marriage equality. Critics also warned that it sidestepped the State Department’s internal bureau responsible for promoting human rights abroad.
Experts have said that Mr. Pompeo’s efforts to prioritize religion in particular above other ideals in American diplomacy could reverse the country’s longstanding belief that “all rights are created equal” and embolden countries that persecute same-sex couples or deny women access to reproductive health services for religious reasons.
“Human rights are not a choose-your-own-adventure,” said Tarah Demant, the director of the gender, sexuality and identity program at Amnesty International U.S.A. “The U.S. State Department’s effort to cherry-pick rights in order to deny some their human rights is a dangerous political stunt that could spark a race to the bottom by human rights-abusing governments around the world.”
At the event on Thursday, which opened with a religious invocation from Cardinal Timothy M. Dolan, the archbishop of New York, Mr. Pompeo also waded into the culture war against what President Trump recently called “a merciless campaign to wipe out our history, defame our heroes, erase our values and indoctrinate our children.”
“Today, the very core of what it means to be an American, indeed the American way of life itself, is under attack,” Mr. Pompeo said. “Instead of seeking to improve America, too many leading voices promulgate hatred of our founding principles.”
He specifically criticized the 1619 Project, a New York Times initiative re-examining the legacy of slavery, describing it as part of “a dark vision of America’s birth” and a “disturbed reading of our history.”
In a statement, Eileen Murphy, a spokeswoman for The Times, responded to Mr. Pompeo’s criticism.
“The 1619 Project, based on decades of recent historical scholarship that has deepened our understanding of the country’s founding, is one of the most impactful works of journalism published last year,” she said. “We’re proud that it continues to spark a dialogue that allows us to re-examine our assumptions about the past.”
Since naming the Commission on Unalienable Rights, as his panel is called, Mr. Pompeo, an evangelical Christian, has expressed confidence that it would create a document that enshrines religious freedom as a central tenet of American human rights policy, which diplomats could refer to for “decades to come.”
But human rights scholars cautioned that this could set a global precedent for other nations to define human rights on their own terms, undermining diplomatic efforts to stop the persecution of religious minorities in places like China, or the promotion of women’s rights in countries like Iran and Saudi Arabia.
“You’re seeing the rise of autocrats across the world,” said Akila Radhakrishnan, the president of the Global Justice Center, an international human rights organization. “You’re giving a gift to those people, and not only taking away U.S. leadership, but giving them and feeding them arguments they’ve long been making as well.”
The commission is led by Mary Ann Glendon, a Harvard Law School professor and former ambassador to the Vatican. She is a prominent anti-abortion activist who has stirred controversy in recent years for making comments that awarding The Boston Globe the Pulitzer Prize for its reporting on child abuse by Catholic priests “would be like giving the Nobel Peace Prize to Osama bin Laden.”
The panel is also rooted in the vision of Robert P. George, a Princeton professor and leading proponent of “natural law” theory, a term that human rights scholars say is code for “God-given rights” and is commonly deployed in fights to roll back rights for women and L.G.B.T.Q. people.
The commission’s draft report will undergo a two-week public comment period before it becomes final.
Several human rights organizations have asked the federal court to prevent the State Department from relying on the report’s recommendations, saying the commission is unlawful because it violates federal laws requiring advisory panels to be “fairly balanced” and transparent.
Lawyers representing the State Department are expected to respond early next week.
NYT: In a speech, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said it was important “for every American, and for every American diplomat,” to recognize how the founders understood “unalienable rights.”
It is more important for ‘every American’ to understand
how most Americans understand ‘unalienable rights’ NOW.
Millions of unemployed Americans face imminent catastrophe.
Some of us knew from the beginning that Donald Trump wasn’t up to the job of being president, that he wouldn’t be able to deal with a crisis that wasn’t of his own making. Still, the magnitude of America’s coronavirus failure has shocked even the cynics.
At this point Florida alone has an average daily death toll roughly equal to that of the whole European Union, which has 20 times its population.
How did this happen? One key element in our deadly debacle has been extreme shortsightedness: At every stage of the crisis Trump and his allies refused to acknowledge or get ahead of disasters everyone paying attention clearly saw coming.
Blithe denials that Covid-19 posed a threat gave way to blithe denials that rapid reopening would lead to a new surge in infections; now that the surge is upon us, Republican governors are responding sluggishly and grudgingly, while the White House is doing nothing at all.
And now another disaster — this time economic rather than epidemiological — is just days away.
To understand the cliff we’re about to plunge over, you need to know that while America’s overall handling of Covid-19 was catastrophically bad, one piece — the economic response — was actually better than many of us expected. The CARES Act, largely devised by Democrats but enacted by a bipartisan majority late in March, had flaws in both design and implementation, yet it did a lot both to alleviate hardship and to limit the economic fallout from the pandemic.
In particular, the act provided vastly increased aid to workers idled by lockdowns imposed to curb the spread of the coronavirus. U.S. unemployment insurance is normally a weak protection against adversity: Many workers aren’t covered, and even those who are usually receive only a small fraction of their previous wages. But the CARES Act both expanded coverage, for example to gig workers, and sharply increased benefits, adding $600 to every recipient’s weekly check.
These enhanced benefits did double duty. They meant that there was far less misery than one might otherwise have expected from a crisis that temporarily eliminated 22 million jobs; by some measures poverty actually declined.
They also helped sustain those parts of the economy that weren’t locked down. Without those emergency benefits, laid-off workers would have been forced to slash spending across the board. This would have generated a whole second round of job loss and economic contraction, as well as creating a huge wave of missed rental payments and evictions.
So enhanced unemployment benefits have been a crucial lifeline to tens of millions of Americans. Unfortunately, all of those beneficiaries are now just a few days from being thrown overboard.
For that $600 weekly supplement — which accounts for most of the expansion of benefits — applies only to benefit weeks that end “on or before July 31.” July 31 is a Friday. State unemployment benefit weeks typically end on Saturday or Sunday. So the supplement will end, in most places, on July 25 or 26, and millions of workers will see their incomes plunge 60 percent or more just a few days from now.
Two months have gone by since the House passed a relief measure that would, among other things, extend enhanced benefits through the rest of the year. But neither Senate Republicans nor the White House has shown any sense of urgency about the looming crisis. Why?
Part of the answer is that Trump and his officials are, as always, far behind the coronavirus curve. They’re still talking about a rapid, V-shape recovery that will bring us quickly back to full employment, making special aid to the unemployed unnecessary; they’re apparently oblivious to what everyone else sees — an economy that is stumbling again as the coronavirus surges back.
Delusions about the state of the economic recovery, in turn, allow conservatives to indulge in one of their favorite zombie ideas — that helping the unemployed in a depressed economy hurts job creation, by discouraging people from taking jobs.
Worrying about employment incentives in the midst of a pandemic is even crazier than worrying about those incentives in the aftermath of a financial crisis, but it seems to be at the core of White House thinking (or maybe that’s “thinking”) about economic policy right now.
One last thing: My sense is that Republicans have a delusional view of their own bargaining position. They don’t seem to realize that they, not the Democrats, will be blamed if millions are plunged into penury because relief is delayed; to the extent that they’re willing to act at all, they still imagine that they can extract concessions like a blanket exemption of businesses from pandemic liability.
Maybe the prospect of catastrophe will concentrate Republican minds, but it seems more likely that we’re heading for weeks if not months of extreme financial distress for millions of Americans, distress that will hobble the economy as a whole. This disaster didn’t need to happen; but you can say the same thing about most of what has gone wrong in this country lately.
… It will come as no surprise that the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare reports “the coronavirus epidemic’s status is currently peaceful in Finland.” This is a country run by women, not idiots.
Yes, Finland’s prime minister and 47 percent of its Parliament are women. Thirty-four-year-old Sanna Marin leads a coalition government of five political parties, all headed by women. There is a female Finance Minister, Interior Minister, Minister of Justice, and more. They remind me of New Hampshire in 2012, when the governor, both US senators, and both US representatives were women. But I digress.
… Everyone speaks a billion languages, loves saunas, and is very, very careful what they say about their southern neighbor, Russia. This is because (1) Russia once owned them and (2) Finland is one of the rare countries that pasted the Red Army, during the Winter War of 1939-1940. That is a fact that people like Vladimir Putin do not like to be reminded of. …
The trait I most admire in the Finns is their suspicion of happiness. Finland scores at the top of the annual World Happiness Report, and it just bums them out. In 2018, Frank Martela of Aalto University took to the pages of Scientific American to explain that “the happiness of the Finns has been greatly exaggerated.”
Among Western countries, Martela wrote, Finland scores second in unipolar depressive disorders behind the United States. “Paradoxically then, the same country can be high on both life satisfaction and depression,” he wrote. “Maybe that’s why Finland has the highest number of heavy metal bands per capita in the world.” …
The Finns were socially distanced before it was fashionable, and they intend to stay that way.
It will come as no surprise that the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare reports “the coronavirus epidemic’s status is currently peaceful in Finland.” …
No Bleach and Dirty Rags: How Some Janitors Are Asked to Keep You Virus-Free
Planes are wiped in under 10 minutes. Many custodians have to bring their own supplies. Yet as the U.S. reopens, companies are boasting of high safety standards to lure customers.
By Jodi Kantor
Shockingly correct as my experience tells me. This speaks to an underlying disdain for the work of cleaners, a disdain that is not being erased by now unmistakably knowing how important they are to us.
A frightening and distressing and revealing article:
PORTLAND, Ore. — Federal agents dressed in camouflage and tactical gear have taken to the streets of Portland, unleashing tear gas, bloodying protesters and pulling some people into unmarked vans in what Gov. Kate Brown of Oregon has called “a blatant abuse of power.”
The extraordinary use of federal force in recent days, billed as an attempt to tamp down persistent unrest and protect government property, has infuriated local leaders who say the agents have stoked tensions. “This is an attack on our democracy,” Mayor Ted Wheeler of Portland said.
Late Friday night, Oregon’s attorney general, Ellen Rosenblum, said her office had opened a criminal investigation into how one protester was injured near a federal courthouse. She also filed a lawsuit in Federal District Court accusing the federal agents of engaging in unlawful tactics and seeking a restraining order.
The strife in Portland, which has had 50 consecutive days of protests, reflects the growing fault lines in law enforcement as President Trump threatens an assertive federal role in how cities manage a wave of national unrest after George Floyd was killed by the Minneapolis police.
One Portland demonstrator, Mark Pettibone, 29, said he had been part of the protests before four people in camouflage jumped out of an unmarked van around 2 a.m. Wednesday. They had no obvious markings or identification, he said, and he had no idea who they were.
“One of the officers said, ‘It’s OK, it’s OK,’ and just grabbed me and threw me into the van,” Mr. Pettibone said. “Another officer pulled my beanie down so I couldn’t see.”
Mr. Pettibone said that he was terrified — protesters in the city have in the past clashed with far-right militia groups also wearing camouflage and tactical gear — and that at no point was he told why he was arrested or detained, or what agency the officers were with. He said he was held for about two hours before being released.
“It felt like I was being hunted for no reason,” Mr. Pettibone said. “It feels like fascism.”
In a statement issued on Friday, Customs and Border Protection described one case captured on video, saying agents who made an arrest had information that indicated a suspect had assaulted federal authorities or damaged property and that they moved him to a safer location for questioning. The statement, which did not name any suspects, said that the agents identified themselves but that their names were not displayed because of “recent doxxing incidents against law enforcement personnel.”
The agents in Portland are part of “rapid deployment teams” put together by the Department of Homeland Security after Mr. Trump directed federal agencies to deploy additional personnel to protect statues, monuments and federal property during the continuing unrest. …
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/16/opinion/coronavirus-economy-unemployment.html
July 16, 2020
The Next Disaster Is Just a Few Days Away
Millions of unemployed Americans face imminent catastrophe.
By Paul Krugman
Some of us knew from the beginning that Donald Trump wasn’t up to the job of being president, that he wouldn’t be able to deal with a crisis that wasn’t of his own making. Still, the magnitude of America’s coronavirus failure has shocked even the cynics.
At this point Florida alone has an average daily death toll roughly equal to that of the whole European Union, which has 20 times its population.
How did this happen? One key element in our deadly debacle has been extreme shortsightedness: At every stage of the crisis Trump and his allies refused to acknowledge or get ahead of disasters everyone paying attention clearly saw coming.
Blithe denials that Covid-19 posed a threat gave way to blithe denials that rapid reopening would lead to a new surge in infections; now that the surge is upon us, Republican governors are responding sluggishly and grudgingly, while the White House is doing nothing at all.
And now another disaster — this time economic rather than epidemiological — is just days away.
To understand the cliff we’re about to plunge over, you need to know that while America’s overall handling of Covid-19 was catastrophically bad, one piece — the economic response — was actually better than many of us expected. The CARES Act, largely devised by Democrats but enacted by a bipartisan majority late in March, had flaws in both design and implementation, yet it did a lot both to alleviate hardship and to limit the economic fallout from the pandemic.
In particular, the act provided vastly increased aid to workers idled by lockdowns imposed to curb the spread of the coronavirus. U.S. unemployment insurance is normally a weak protection against adversity: Many workers aren’t covered, and even those who are usually receive only a small fraction of their previous wages. But the CARES Act both expanded coverage, for example to gig workers, and sharply increased benefits, adding $600 to every recipient’s weekly check.
These enhanced benefits did double duty. They meant that there was far less misery than one might otherwise have expected from a crisis that temporarily eliminated 22 million jobs; by some measures poverty actually declined.
They also helped sustain those parts of the economy that weren’t locked down. Without those emergency benefits, laid-off workers would have been forced to slash spending across the board. This would have generated a whole second round of job loss and economic contraction, as well as creating a huge wave of missed rental payments and evictions.
So enhanced unemployment benefits have been a crucial lifeline to tens of millions of Americans. Unfortunately, all of those beneficiaries are now just a few days from being thrown overboard.
For that $600 weekly supplement — which accounts for most of the expansion of benefits — applies only to benefit weeks that end “on or before July 31.” July 31 is a Friday. State unemployment benefit weeks typically end on Saturday or Sunday. So the supplement will end, in most places, on July 25 or 26, and millions of workers will see their incomes plunge 60 percent or more just a few days from now.
Two months have gone by since the House passed a relief measure that would, among other things, extend enhanced benefits through the rest of the year. But neither Senate Republicans nor the White House has shown any sense of urgency about the looming crisis. Why?
Part of the answer is that Trump and his officials are, as always, far behind the coronavirus curve. They’re still talking about a rapid, V-shape recovery that will bring us quickly back to full employment, making special aid to the unemployed unnecessary; they’re apparently oblivious to what everyone else sees — an economy that is stumbling again as the coronavirus surges back.
Delusions about the state of the economic recovery, in turn, allow conservatives to indulge in one of their favorite zombie ideas — that helping the unemployed in a depressed economy hurts job creation, by discouraging people from taking jobs.
Worrying about employment incentives in the midst of a pandemic is even crazier than worrying about those incentives in the aftermath of a financial crisis, but it seems to be at the core of White House thinking (or maybe that’s “thinking”) about economic policy right now.
One last thing: My sense is that Republicans have a delusional view of their own bargaining position. They don’t seem to realize that they, not the Democrats, will be blamed if millions are plunged into penury because relief is delayed; to the extent that they’re willing to act at all, they still imagine that they can extract concessions like a blanket exemption of businesses from pandemic liability.
Maybe the prospect of catastrophe will concentrate Republican minds, but it seems more likely that we’re heading for weeks if not months of extreme financial distress for millions of Americans, distress that will hobble the economy as a whole. This disaster didn’t need to happen; but you can say the same thing about most of what has gone wrong in this country lately.
July 16, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 3,695,025)
Deaths ( 141,118)
India
Cases ( 1,005,637)
Deaths ( 25,609)
Mexico
Cases ( 317,635)
Deaths ( 36,906)
UK
Cases ( 292,552)
Deaths ( 45,119)
Germany
Cases ( 201,836)
Deaths ( 9,157)
Canada
Cases ( 109,264)
Deaths ( 8,827)
China
Cases ( 83,612)
Deaths ( 4,634)
Sweden
Cases ( 76,877)
Deaths ( 5,593)
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-07-17/Chinese-mainland-reports-10-new-COVID-19-cases-9-from-overseas-SbSEaiDde0/index.html
July 17, 2020
Chinese mainland reports 10 new COVID-19 cases, no new deaths
Ten new COVID-19 cases were recorded on the Chinese mainland on Thursday, 9 from overseas, and 1 local transmission in northwest China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. The Chinese health authorities added that there were no new deaths on Thursday.
The total number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland stands at 83,622, and the cumulative death toll at 4,634, with 104 asymptomatic patients under medical observation.
Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-07-17/Chinese-mainland-reports-10-new-COVID-19-cases-9-from-overseas-SbSEaiDde0/img/4fe4f402a3634a4db5a4813024cd5241/4fe4f402a3634a4db5a4813024cd5241.jpeg
Chinese mainland new imported cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-07-17/Chinese-mainland-reports-10-new-COVID-19-cases-9-from-overseas-SbSEaiDde0/img/ccfffb142c274cf9999f328c177aa9b5/ccfffb142c274cf9999f328c177aa9b5.jpeg
Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-07-17/Chinese-mainland-reports-10-new-COVID-19-cases-9-from-overseas-SbSEaiDde0/img/ae046b324f404258bb0526d7c2c95613/ae046b324f404258bb0526d7c2c95613.jpeg
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-07-17/Beijing-reports-no-new-COVID-19-cases-for-11-straight-days-SbUMVBwD96/index.html
July 17, 2020
Beijing reports 0 new COVID-19 cases
Beijing recorded no new domestically transmitted COVID-19 cases on Thursday for the 11th day in a row. The total number of cases since a cluster outbreak was discovered at Xinfadi market on June 11 stands at 335, the municipal health commission said on Friday.
An additional 10 patients have recovered, taking the total to 177.
No asymptomatic cases were reported on Thursday either, though a total of 17 asymptomatic people are still under medical observation, the health commission said.
Xincun Sub-district in Fengtai District adjusted its risk level from medium to low and lowered the total number of medium-risk areas in the city to 2 – Majiapu Sub-district and Huaxiang Township in Fengtai District. All other regions in Beijing are low-risk.
The authorities said they will strictly prevent cases from overseas, strengthen epidemic prevention at airports and customs offices and implement measures such as quarantine for inbound travelers.
Officials said they will carry out risk screening for frozen food and meat and strengthen the supervision of imported cold chain foods, alongside follow-up disposal work at Xinfadi market. Beijing will also promote the standardized management, transformation and upgrading of markets.
[ https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EcUAiKXVAAApdzB?format=jpg&name=4096×4096 ]
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-07/16/c_139218136.htm
July 16, 2020
China’s economy rebounds in Q2 from epidemic headwinds
BEIJING — China’s economy bounced back to growth in the second quarter (Q2) this year as the country gradually resumed work and production after effectively containing the COVID-19 epidemic, official data showed on Thursday.
The country’s gross domestic product expanded by 3.2 percent year on year in Q2, following a 6.8 percent contraction in Q1, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
It has not been easy for China to contain the epidemic in a short time and reverse an economic downturn, said NBS spokesperson Liu Aihua.
In the second quarter, while witnessing a gradual rebound in major economic indicators and holding employment and inflation levels stable, China has managed to ensure people’s basic livelihoods and promoted new economic sectors, Liu said.
RESTORATIVE GROWTH
China’s value-added industrial output went up by 4.4 percent year on year in Q2 as factories stepped up production amid COVID-19 control. Meanwhile, fixed-asset investments went down by 3.1 percent year on year in H1, narrowing from the 6.3-percent decline in the first five months.
Retail sales, a gauge of consumption, declined by 3.9 percent year on year in Q2, shrinking by 15.1 percentage points from the first quarter’s decrease.
The Chinese economy overcame the adverse impact of the epidemic in the first half gradually and demonstrated a momentum of recovery, further manifesting its development resilience and vitality, the NBS said.
The bounce was bolstered by the surge of new engines, new businesses, and new models. Investment in the pharmaceutical industry and e-commerce services, springing up amid COVID-19, registered a sharp rise of over 10 percent and 30 percent respectively.
Meanwhile, China registered better-than-expected foreign trade performances in H1, with exports and imports both rising in June.
To shore up the economy against the epidemic shock, the government has rolled out a raft of measures, including more fiscal spending, tax relief, and cuts in lending rates and banks’ reserve requirements to revive the coronavirus-ravaged economy, and support employment.
Thursday’s data also showed China’s job market improved slightly in June, with the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas standing at 5.7 percent, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.
FURTHER RECOVERY EXPECTED
Liu said she expects China’s economy to continue recovering in the second half of the year, powered by the steady economic recovery in H1, rapidly growing new industries and business models, as well as the strong support from macro policies.
But she also stressed that China’s economic recovery is still under pressure, given the continuing global spread of the epidemic, the evolving impact of the epidemic on the global economy, and the noticeably mounting external risks and challenges.
The worries were echoed by Wen Bin, chief analyst at China Minsheng Bank, who said in a co-authored research note that further efforts should be made to enhance macro-control and expand domestic demand, citing external uncertainties and the lingering impact of the epidemic.
But Wen is confident that with further containment of the virus, and continued implementation of counter-cyclical policies, China’s economy will swing back to expansion in the first three quarters and achieve moderate growth for the whole year.
In its latest projection, the International Monetary Fund said China is expected to be the only major economy that could see growth this year by growing 1 percent in 2020, followed by an 8.2-percent growth in 2021.
Yang Yuanqing, Lenovo Group’s chairman and CEO, said “smart” ways of consumption, production, and working emerged during the epidemic, and will continue even after the virus is contained. This would drive China’s economic recovery, and become an important engine for global growth.
In light of the adverse impact of COVID-19, China has set no specific targets for economic growth for this year, and priority will be given to stabilizing employment and ensuring living standards.
The country has laid a decisive foundation for completing the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects, and is striving to fulfill the tasks and goals for the whole year, Liu said.
Pompeo Says Human Rights Policy Must Prioritize Property Rights and Religion
NY Times – July 16
WASHINGTON — Secretary of State Mike Pompeo delivered a divisive speech on Thursday calling for the United States to ground its human rights policy more prominently in religious liberty and property rights.
Mr. Pompeo’s speech, at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, came as he announced the release of a report created by a panel he commissioned last year to suggest how American human rights policy could better reflect the “nation’s founding principles.”
“It’s important for every American, and for every American diplomat, to recognize how our founders understood unalienable rights,” Mr. Pompeo said. “Foremost among these rights are property rights and religious liberty.”
Human rights scholars have criticized Mr. Pompeo’s panel since its inception, noting it was filled with conservatives who were intent on promoting views against abortion and marriage equality. Critics also warned that it sidestepped the State Department’s internal bureau responsible for promoting human rights abroad.
Experts have said that Mr. Pompeo’s efforts to prioritize religion in particular above other ideals in American diplomacy could reverse the country’s longstanding belief that “all rights are created equal” and embolden countries that persecute same-sex couples or deny women access to reproductive health services for religious reasons.
“Human rights are not a choose-your-own-adventure,” said Tarah Demant, the director of the gender, sexuality and identity program at Amnesty International U.S.A. “The U.S. State Department’s effort to cherry-pick rights in order to deny some their human rights is a dangerous political stunt that could spark a race to the bottom by human rights-abusing governments around the world.”
At the event on Thursday, which opened with a religious invocation from Cardinal Timothy M. Dolan, the archbishop of New York, Mr. Pompeo also waded into the culture war against what President Trump recently called “a merciless campaign to wipe out our history, defame our heroes, erase our values and indoctrinate our children.”
“Today, the very core of what it means to be an American, indeed the American way of life itself, is under attack,” Mr. Pompeo said. “Instead of seeking to improve America, too many leading voices promulgate hatred of our founding principles.”
He specifically criticized the 1619 Project, a New York Times initiative re-examining the legacy of slavery, describing it as part of “a dark vision of America’s birth” and a “disturbed reading of our history.”
In a statement, Eileen Murphy, a spokeswoman for The Times, responded to Mr. Pompeo’s criticism.
“The 1619 Project, based on decades of recent historical scholarship that has deepened our understanding of the country’s founding, is one of the most impactful works of journalism published last year,” she said. “We’re proud that it continues to spark a dialogue that allows us to re-examine our assumptions about the past.”
Since naming the Commission on Unalienable Rights, as his panel is called, Mr. Pompeo, an evangelical Christian, has expressed confidence that it would create a document that enshrines religious freedom as a central tenet of American human rights policy, which diplomats could refer to for “decades to come.”
But human rights scholars cautioned that this could set a global precedent for other nations to define human rights on their own terms, undermining diplomatic efforts to stop the persecution of religious minorities in places like China, or the promotion of women’s rights in countries like Iran and Saudi Arabia.
“You’re seeing the rise of autocrats across the world,” said Akila Radhakrishnan, the president of the Global Justice Center, an international human rights organization. “You’re giving a gift to those people, and not only taking away U.S. leadership, but giving them and feeding them arguments they’ve long been making as well.”
The commission is led by Mary Ann Glendon, a Harvard Law School professor and former ambassador to the Vatican. She is a prominent anti-abortion activist who has stirred controversy in recent years for making comments that awarding The Boston Globe the Pulitzer Prize for its reporting on child abuse by Catholic priests “would be like giving the Nobel Peace Prize to Osama bin Laden.”
The panel is also rooted in the vision of Robert P. George, a Princeton professor and leading proponent of “natural law” theory, a term that human rights scholars say is code for “God-given rights” and is commonly deployed in fights to roll back rights for women and L.G.B.T.Q. people.
The commission’s draft report will undergo a two-week public comment period before it becomes final.
Several human rights organizations have asked the federal court to prevent the State Department from relying on the report’s recommendations, saying the commission is unlawful because it violates federal laws requiring advisory panels to be “fairly balanced” and transparent.
Lawyers representing the State Department are expected to respond early next week.
NYT: In a speech, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said it was important “for every American, and for every American diplomat,” to recognize how the founders understood “unalienable rights.”
It is more important for ‘every American’ to understand
how most Americans understand ‘unalienable rights’ NOW.
The Next Disaster Is Just a Few Days Away
NY Times – Paul Krugman – July 16
Millions of unemployed Americans face imminent catastrophe.
Some of us knew from the beginning that Donald Trump wasn’t up to the job of being president, that he wouldn’t be able to deal with a crisis that wasn’t of his own making. Still, the magnitude of America’s coronavirus failure has shocked even the cynics.
At this point Florida alone has an average daily death toll roughly equal to that of the whole European Union, which has 20 times its population.
How did this happen? One key element in our deadly debacle has been extreme shortsightedness: At every stage of the crisis Trump and his allies refused to acknowledge or get ahead of disasters everyone paying attention clearly saw coming.
Blithe denials that Covid-19 posed a threat gave way to blithe denials that rapid reopening would lead to a new surge in infections; now that the surge is upon us, Republican governors are responding sluggishly and grudgingly, while the White House is doing nothing at all.
And now another disaster — this time economic rather than epidemiological — is just days away.
To understand the cliff we’re about to plunge over, you need to know that while America’s overall handling of Covid-19 was catastrophically bad, one piece — the economic response — was actually better than many of us expected. The CARES Act, largely devised by Democrats but enacted by a bipartisan majority late in March, had flaws in both design and implementation, yet it did a lot both to alleviate hardship and to limit the economic fallout from the pandemic.
In particular, the act provided vastly increased aid to workers idled by lockdowns imposed to curb the spread of the coronavirus. U.S. unemployment insurance is normally a weak protection against adversity: Many workers aren’t covered, and even those who are usually receive only a small fraction of their previous wages. But the CARES Act both expanded coverage, for example to gig workers, and sharply increased benefits, adding $600 to every recipient’s weekly check.
These enhanced benefits did double duty. They meant that there was far less misery than one might otherwise have expected from a crisis that temporarily eliminated 22 million jobs; by some measures poverty actually declined.
They also helped sustain those parts of the economy that weren’t locked down. Without those emergency benefits, laid-off workers would have been forced to slash spending across the board. This would have generated a whole second round of job loss and economic contraction, as well as creating a huge wave of missed rental payments and evictions.
So enhanced unemployment benefits have been a crucial lifeline to tens of millions of Americans. Unfortunately, all of those beneficiaries are now just a few days from being thrown overboard.
For that $600 weekly supplement — which accounts for most of the expansion of benefits — applies only to benefit weeks that end “on or before July 31.” July 31 is a Friday. State unemployment benefit weeks typically end on Saturday or Sunday. So the supplement will end, in most places, on July 25 or 26, and millions of workers will see their incomes plunge 60 percent or more just a few days from now.
Two months have gone by since the House passed a relief measure that would, among other things, extend enhanced benefits through the rest of the year. But neither Senate Republicans nor the White House has shown any sense of urgency about the looming crisis. Why?
Part of the answer is that Trump and his officials are, as always, far behind the coronavirus curve. They’re still talking about a rapid, V-shape recovery that will bring us quickly back to full employment, making special aid to the unemployed unnecessary; they’re apparently oblivious to what everyone else sees — an economy that is stumbling again as the coronavirus surges back.
Delusions about the state of the economic recovery, in turn, allow conservatives to indulge in one of their favorite zombie ideas — that helping the unemployed in a depressed economy hurts job creation, by discouraging people from taking jobs.
Worrying about employment incentives in the midst of a pandemic is even crazier than worrying about those incentives in the aftermath of a financial crisis, but it seems to be at the core of White House thinking (or maybe that’s “thinking”) about economic policy right now.
One last thing: My sense is that Republicans have a delusional view of their own bargaining position. They don’t seem to realize that they, not the Democrats, will be blamed if millions are plunged into penury because relief is delayed; to the extent that they’re willing to act at all, they still imagine that they can extract concessions like a blanket exemption of businesses from pandemic liability.
Maybe the prospect of catastrophe will concentrate Republican minds, but it seems more likely that we’re heading for weeks if not months of extreme financial distress for millions of Americans, distress that will hobble the economy as a whole. This disaster didn’t need to happen; but you can say the same thing about most of what has gone wrong in this country lately.
To be ‘spiritually Finnish’
via @BostonGlobe – Alex Beam – July 17
… It will come as no surprise that the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare reports “the coronavirus epidemic’s status is currently peaceful in Finland.” This is a country run by women, not idiots.
Yes, Finland’s prime minister and 47 percent of its Parliament are women. Thirty-four-year-old Sanna Marin leads a coalition government of five political parties, all headed by women. There is a female Finance Minister, Interior Minister, Minister of Justice, and more. They remind me of New Hampshire in 2012, when the governor, both US senators, and both US representatives were women. But I digress.
… Everyone speaks a billion languages, loves saunas, and is very, very careful what they say about their southern neighbor, Russia. This is because (1) Russia once owned them and (2) Finland is one of the rare countries that pasted the Red Army, during the Winter War of 1939-1940. That is a fact that people like Vladimir Putin do not like to be reminded of. …
The trait I most admire in the Finns is their suspicion of happiness. Finland scores at the top of the annual World Happiness Report, and it just bums them out. In 2018, Frank Martela of Aalto University took to the pages of Scientific American to explain that “the happiness of the Finns has been greatly exaggerated.”
Among Western countries, Martela wrote, Finland scores second in unipolar depressive disorders behind the United States. “Paradoxically then, the same country can be high on both life satisfaction and depression,” he wrote. “Maybe that’s why Finland has the highest number of heavy metal bands per capita in the world.” …
Finland Is the Happiest Country in the World, and Finns Aren’t Happy about It
via @sciam – May 2018
The Finns were socially distanced before it was fashionable, and they intend to stay that way.
It will come as no surprise that the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare reports “the coronavirus epidemic’s status is currently peaceful in Finland.” …
July 17, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 3,724,096)
Deaths ( 141,479)
July 17, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 3,737,114)
Deaths ( 141,616)
I wish I could frame what this means from a broad perspective, since the calamity need not have been, but I am still unsure of any meaning.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/17/us/coronavirus-janitors.html
July 17, 2020
No Bleach and Dirty Rags: How Some Janitors Are Asked to Keep You Virus-Free
Planes are wiped in under 10 minutes. Many custodians have to bring their own supplies. Yet as the U.S. reopens, companies are boasting of high safety standards to lure customers.
By Jodi Kantor
[ No, I really do not understand. ]
Shockingly correct as my experience tells me. This speaks to an underlying disdain for the work of cleaners, a disdain that is not being erased by now unmistakably knowing how important they are to us.
A frightening and distressing and revealing article:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/17/us/coronavirus-janitors.html
No Bleach and Dirty Rags: How Some Janitors Are Asked to Keep You Virus-Free
July 17, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 3,746,288)
Deaths ( 141,690)
(This would be Portland, Oregon, not Portland, Maine.
Who knows where the next uprising will
need to be quelled?)
Federal Agents Unleash Militarized Crackdown on Portland
NY Times – July 17
PORTLAND, Ore. — Federal agents dressed in camouflage and tactical gear have taken to the streets of Portland, unleashing tear gas, bloodying protesters and pulling some people into unmarked vans in what Gov. Kate Brown of Oregon has called “a blatant abuse of power.”
The extraordinary use of federal force in recent days, billed as an attempt to tamp down persistent unrest and protect government property, has infuriated local leaders who say the agents have stoked tensions. “This is an attack on our democracy,” Mayor Ted Wheeler of Portland said.
Late Friday night, Oregon’s attorney general, Ellen Rosenblum, said her office had opened a criminal investigation into how one protester was injured near a federal courthouse. She also filed a lawsuit in Federal District Court accusing the federal agents of engaging in unlawful tactics and seeking a restraining order.
The strife in Portland, which has had 50 consecutive days of protests, reflects the growing fault lines in law enforcement as President Trump threatens an assertive federal role in how cities manage a wave of national unrest after George Floyd was killed by the Minneapolis police.
One Portland demonstrator, Mark Pettibone, 29, said he had been part of the protests before four people in camouflage jumped out of an unmarked van around 2 a.m. Wednesday. They had no obvious markings or identification, he said, and he had no idea who they were.
“One of the officers said, ‘It’s OK, it’s OK,’ and just grabbed me and threw me into the van,” Mr. Pettibone said. “Another officer pulled my beanie down so I couldn’t see.”
Mr. Pettibone said that he was terrified — protesters in the city have in the past clashed with far-right militia groups also wearing camouflage and tactical gear — and that at no point was he told why he was arrested or detained, or what agency the officers were with. He said he was held for about two hours before being released.
“It felt like I was being hunted for no reason,” Mr. Pettibone said. “It feels like fascism.”
In a statement issued on Friday, Customs and Border Protection described one case captured on video, saying agents who made an arrest had information that indicated a suspect had assaulted federal authorities or damaged property and that they moved him to a safer location for questioning. The statement, which did not name any suspects, said that the agents identified themselves but that their names were not displayed because of “recent doxxing incidents against law enforcement personnel.”
The agents in Portland are part of “rapid deployment teams” put together by the Department of Homeland Security after Mr. Trump directed federal agencies to deploy additional personnel to protect statues, monuments and federal property during the continuing unrest. …