Trump’s Marshmallow Dilemma
In 1972, Professor and Psychologist Walter Mischel at Stanford University set into play a study on delayed gratification using children. A child was offered a choice between one immediate reward or two small rewards if they waited for a period of time. During this time after the announcement of a reward, the researcher left the room for ~15 minutes and then returned.
The reward was either a marshmallow or pretzel stick dependent upon the child’s preference and if they waited. Follow-up life time studies of those children, discovered those who had waited longer for the additional and preferred rewards tended to have better life outcomes as measured by SAT scores, educational attainment, body mass index, and other life measures. When a replication of the original study was done with a more diverse sample population 10 times larger than the original study, the later study revealed half the effect of the original study. The later study suggested economic background, rather than willpower, explained why some took the reward sooner.
Washington Monthly’s Anne Kim suggests America is now facing something akin in a national Marshmallow Test. States are pushing to reopen their economies, even with the evidence (as NewDealdemocrat points out in a June 2 post) the COVID-19 pandemic is far from over. Summer is almost upon us and as restrictions loosen; citizens will have to determine how far they will react to a choice of pre-pandemic normalcy such as a trip to a salon, a cookout with friends, or a night out at the theater rather than remain isolated at home longer and reap the reward of greater safety besides freedom. If they choose to take the reward now, another issue will be whether they continue to maintain the discipline of social distancing until the virus is genuinely under control for greater safety. It will be challenging to forego the summer’s most sought-after activities such as a trip to the beach; but, the more abstemious people and countries who stay at home and socially distance themselves as well will reap greater rewards and safety later. No doubt, those countries persevering in taming the virus will claim the prize of a potentially lasting economic stability.
Another view and the politics . . .
President Trump would have us all eat our “marshmallow now” and return to a pre-pandemic life to ensure a better economy in Fall for his election. He is willing to risk igniting a second wave of Covid-19, sacrifice thousands of lives, and squandered a chance for a better and more durable post-pandemic economy so he can improve his chance of being re-elected. It may not be that easy for him to be re-elected but he will risk us and in order to get that just out of reach brass ring. In any case and if we do return to an unhindered open economy, he gains a marshmallow and a chance of a second marshmallow of being re-elected as the population spends the economy into growth again
Worse than the preschooler who succumbs to the temptation of a single marshmallow, supposed adult Trump will stuff his face now with endorsing freedom from isolation and then smash the economic plate later (as we sink into a second wave to ensure his return to the White House) at the expense of the population and the economy. To add to the issues faced by the states which is forcing an early reopen, a Republican Senate majority led by McConnell is holding up additional funding for states which would alleviate the pressure on the states to open up the economy in order to secure needed tax revenue.
It is also not just state economics forcing the decision to open up (forgoing Trump’s self indulgent reasoning). Some states have not experienced the level of infection rate as what a Michigan or Pennsylvania has had claiming they and have kept much (if not all) of the economy open. As Angry Bear’s NewDealdemocrat has also pointed out in his latest Coronavirus dashboard for June 2;” the US has accepted and settled into a depressing status quo” of 20,000 new coronavirus infections and 1,500 deaths each day as being the norm. What many are forgetting or ignore is even the younger citizens can suffer from a lifetime of severe complications resulting from Covid-19 besides death.
The George Floyd and “equality under the law” protests occurring nationwide will add to the numbers of Covid-19 infections 10-14 days out.
Trumps failure to soothe the injury and sorrow sustained by a “protesting” nation due to the willful murder of George Floyd at the hands of authorities has diminished any chance of crushing the curve as NewDealdemocrat has determined to be necessary to open the economy. Trump’s greed and impulsive behavior to open up the economy to have his plate of marshmallows now to ensure his re-election at our expense later will mostly fail due to a lack of empathy towards minorities and citizenry and an unwillingness to lead a struggling nation.
Your past that. States have already reopened their economies, but the economy sucks. Delta closing 11 terminals and laying off thousands is just the sign of the times. Demand is down. Credit markets are a mess and lending is way down.
Trump is in trouble, he can try and cheerlead returning furloughs(which in May were heavily aided by the PPP requirement, though the economists didn’t seem to get that). This economy will be bleeding jobs this fall to a tune of 400-600 a month.
“The George Lloyd ”
Floyd
Thanks Dave. The wonders of auto correct
The Dumpster® would do well in the marshmallow test.
After the tester left the room, Trump would leave the room and find the stash of marshmallows and steal them all for himself.
When confronted he would blame Obama.
Given Trump’s enduring support at about 42-ish percent, it seems like the Republican’s task is to woo the currently disaffected independent voter. The question is, will these hypothetical voters, ever fickle, ever gullible, be like so many of us as we allow recent events to quickly go down the memory hole? If so then I’d guess that with some luck with Covid-19 and the economy, a dithering press, Biden and the corporate Dems stumbling around, and Trump sucking all the oxygen from the news cycle it might be enough to put the election within range come November. Unfortunately for all of us Covid19 seems unlikely to cooperate but here’s hoping too that Biden avoids making too much of an ass of himself, Trump screws with lady luck, and the press finds the guts to report the unfiltered truth.
kwark:
The press may wake up yet if they smell blood . . .
There was an updated version of the marshmallow test that showed that children’s trust that they will get rewarded for good behavior is a major determinant of their performance on the marshmallow test. As the BLM movement shows, being non-threatening, sleeping in one’s own bed or just playing in a playground can lead to life ending injuries. Exactly how long should one wait for a marshmallow given your odds of getting killed by the police before it arrives?
As for Trump, he’s learned that jack ass behavior usually pays off quite nicely. Double down on being an asshole, get more money, fame and other goodies, possibly even marshmallows. That’s all there is to our president.
I’ll reference: “Rational snacking: Young children’s decision-making on the marshmallow task is moderated by beliefs about environmental reliability” Yes, it’s a real paper.
Kalesberg, You could post the link also and save me the search. Thanks for the comment.
Ain’t go’n no where without a mask. Not flying anywhere even with a mask. Not going to a restaurant with a mask. That is the way I will live my life until a vaccine or a drug and the man in the Offal Orifice goes campaigning and wades into his adoring fans. Kissing babies. Shaking hands. Giving and taking hugs.
Who says there will ever be a vaccine? How many folks will be willing and able to live as Mole People for the entire rest of their lives?
From the look of things not many, not over what is maybe a 0.3% risk.
A 3 tenths of one-percent of what, testing positive? If you actually contract Covid, you have a greater percentage of dying. If not death, you stand a a greater chance of being physically disabled due to the virus attacking your organs. To me this is a fate worse than dying.
In the short term, the vaccine will not be used on older people.
I think the marshmallow experiment in delayed gratification runs smack into Keynes observation that in the long run we are all dead. I have no problem with avoiding risky behaviors for the foreseeable future but that is because I am old, married and white. I am missing out on travel and entertainment experiences and at my age there is no assurance I can do those things in a year or two but they are not things that I want so much that it is worth the risk which is a lot greater than .03% particularly if most people blow off social distancing, wearing masks, washing hands etc. Now I am sure I would evaluate things differently if I was young, single and black. I would really want to find a partner, protest police murder and would be much more willing to roll the dice because even if I did get the virus the odds of becoming very sick or dying are much less than for older folks.
Thanks Terry:
My wife of 49 years and I are going to embark on a new adventure having lived in one place for more than 26 years. We are polishing up our almost 30 year old home for sale. It is very suitable for a family of 4 or even greater and sits on a big lot lending itself to a place for children to play. Our three are gone and experiencing their own adventures in life and what it has to offer them. Covid was not one of them we or they planned on and I am sure our grandchildren will be telling their children what it was like living during a pandemic. Three other homes have sold in the neighborhood at prices the neighborhood has not experienced in the past.
We were never comfortable here. I find myself as the progressive or liberal bastion within the subdivision, township, and the rest of the state. Michigan has been in control mostly and since 1990 by Republicans who have bled the state of its resources through tax breaks to the upper incomes and corporate giveaways. The question remains for us as to whether we will find our next and probably last place of independence a welcome relief from where we are now? We are excited and hopeful we will find a new place more welcoming as it has people we know or who are family friends such as what we do not have here. It took two years of looking to find a nirvana or a place similar to what Madison was when our children were little.
Having a well forces you to prepare alternative measures such as having additional water, candles, Lysol wipes, 409 for cleaning, a bottle or two of alcohol, latex gloves. and a supply of toilet paper and paper towels. The only thing we lacked were masks and we improvised for them to meet the pandemic head on.
I received pushback from my children about not driving to where we hope to land. My wife even rejected it. Like I explained to her, there is no hurry to get there, and we can drive for 8 hours, and rest. It may take a week; but, we have time. I asked her to join me on this trip otherwise I would go alone. She agreed to the move and now will join me on this adventure. It is one of the few times we have agreed on something 100%.
It is exciting and we hope to make a go of it in spite of the pandemic.
Arizona.
Things are changing rapidly there, though they needed to change a lot.
I figure it is even money the state picks Biden and has tow Dem Senators come January.
Unthinkable a decade ago.
EMike,
Good for you. My friend Joe in Tucson told me about thirty-five years ago that he found folk in Tucson far more amenable to his POV (heavily influenced by Stokely Carmichael and Abbie Hoffmann) than he had in Phoenix, where he had just recently lived. At that time Tucson was roughly equal in demographics among white, Hispanics, and natives, while Phoenix still had white a majority. Times change all things.
Joe married the daughter of a doctor from NJ that had moved to Tucson and taken a Mexican wife. Joe’s father-in-law provided medical care to poor native and Hispanic patients for whatever payment that they could offer in the form of chickens, pigs, and lambs. Joe’s wife Lissette is tall and healthy as are their two grown children who now have kids of their own. Lissette never went hungry as a child thanks to her dad.
Joe is my oldest surviving friend from a time that we were both young and wild and more than a little bit crazy lost in the years after 1968. At that time no one that knew us might imagine that we could grow up to be old and responsible as we are now or even just old.
dilbert Dogbert,
Well then my life is about the same as yours now. The only thing is that Covid-19 has hardly changed my life at all. Except for grocery shopping earlier in the mornings and wearing a gator up in the store now, then Covid-19 has hardly changed my life at all.
Before 1968 we hoped that we would change the world. After 1968 then we just hoped that the world would not change us. Now we are 0 for 2.