Pandemic boundaries
Via the Boston Globe comes the consideration of boundary problems this pandemic poses between US states. Worth a discussion. Also, on the world stage, the EU and other countries consider relaxing travel restrictions from ‘safe’ countries, the US not among them.
Visitor quarantines may seem like a smart intervention to keep the virus from crossing state lines. Symptoms can take up to 14 days to appear after someone is infected, and research suggests people can transmit the virus even when they’re showing no signs of illness, said Dr. Nahid Bhadelia, an infectious diseases physician and medical director of the Special Pathogens Unit at Boston Medical Center.
But a quarantine strategy may not be a realistic approach to stopping further infections, she said, because it’s hard to monitor every car crossing the border, and the state can’t stop travelers flying in to airports, which are federal sites.
“After states have been going it on their own, we are now quickly realizing our state is tied to [other] states,” Bhadelia said. “What happens in Florida or Arizona is not independent. Our borders are so porous.”
Legal issues associated with attempting to block or impede travel may also prove an obstacle, said Wendy Parmet, a professor of law, public policy, and urban affairs at Northeastern University.
“Travel advisories are themselves deeply problematic,” she said. “The dilemma is showing up the disaster of what’s been happening: the fact that we don’t have a federal policy, and no consistency among the states.”
She allowed that the plight of Massachusetts this summer “may be an instance where there is some merit to [travel quarantines] because you have situations with people coming in from jurisdictions that are not doing social distancing, or widespread use of masks, and it’s a real problem.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/27/world/europe/coronavirus-spread-asymptomatic.html
June 27, 2020
BEHIND THE CURVE
HOW THE WORLD MISSED COVID-19’S SILENT SPREAD
Symptomless transmission makes the coronavirus far harder to fight. But health officials dismissed the risk for months, pushing misleading and contradictory claims in the face of mounting evidence.
By Matt Apuzzo, Selam Gebrekidan and David D. Kirkpatrick
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/12/us/coronavirus-biogen-boston-superspreader.html
April 12, 2020
How a Premier U.S. Drug Company Became a Virus ‘Super Spreader’
Biogen employees unwittingly spread the coronavirus from Massachusetts to Indiana, Tennessee and North Carolina.
By Farah Stockman and Kim Barker
BOSTON — On the first Monday in March, Michel Vounatsos, chief executive of the drug company Biogen, appeared in good spirits. The company’s new Alzheimer’s drug was showing promise after years of setbacks. Revenues had never been higher.
Onstage at an elite health care conference in Boston, Mr. Vounatsos touted the drug’s “remarkable journey.” Asked if the coronavirus that was ravaging China would disrupt supply chains and upend the company’s big plans, Mr. Vounatsos said no.
“So far, so good,” he said.
But even as he spoke, the virus was already silently spreading among Biogen’s senior executives, who did not know they had been infected days earlier at the company’s annual leadership meeting.
Biogen employees, most feeling healthy, boarded planes full of passengers. They drove home to their families. And they carried the virus to at least six states, the District of Columbia and three countries, outstripping the ability of local public health officials to trace the spread.
The Biogen meeting was one of the earliest examples in the United States of what epidemiologists call “superspreading events” of Covid-19, where a small gathering of people leads to a huge number of infections. Unlike the most infamous clusters of cases stemming from a nursing home outside Seattle or a 40th birthday party in Connecticut, the Biogen cluster happened at a meeting of top health care professionals whose job it was to fight disease, not spread it….
Is there any scientific evidence that the virus is mutating into a less deadly form? I have heard this from two different health care providers allegedly from sources other than Russian trolls on Facebook, but I have not seen anything on it and would have assumed the moron in chief would be touting such a possibility with at least as much vigor as he touted the malaria drugs. Deaths are always a lagging indicator but it does seem like the death rate has been falling as a percentage of cases. I have attributed this to more younger people being confirmed as positive cases and improvements in treatment but is there something else going on? As for the masks and social distancing, the very fact that it is not universally lethal or even symptomatic cuts against it becoming a social norm even if we had federal leadership on the issue. I thought Biden made a mistake in saying he would make masks mandatory and could have said that with appropriate leadership mask wearing would become the norm, but maybe it will be like cigarette smoking which took laws to get it out of most indoor places. From what I have seen the sweet spot is 80% compliance.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/us/coronavirus-westport-connecticut-party-zero.html
March 23, 2020
Party Zero: How a Soirée in Connecticut Became a ‘Super Spreader’
About 50 people gathered this month for a party in the upscale suburb of Westport, then scattered across the region and the world, taking the coronavirus with them.
By Elizabeth Williamson and Kristin Hussey
Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
Do people fully appreciate the economic implications of the new Covid-19 surge? And how it interacts with policy? It’s pretty grim 1/
12:25 PM · Jun 27, 2020
What we’re seeing in the Sunbelt is a failed reopening; whatever job gains there have been from the end of lockdown will now stall and maybe go into reverse, and the virus will weigh on the economy for a long time 2/
What makes this especially problematic is that GOP policy — both Trump and McConnell — has been based entirely on assuming that jobs will come roaring back. No need to extend special unemployment benefits; no need to aid state and local govts 3/
If the jobs don’t come roaring back, which they won’t, cutoff of benefits and failure to provide aid become huge problems. The economy has been ugly, but cld have been much uglier — and is set to become so unless there’s very quick action 4/
Case in point: wage and salary income fell $800 billion (at an annual rate) between Feb and May, but this was more than offset by $1.2 trillion in unemployment benefits. This kept lockdown of contact-intensive sector from spilling over into a much wider slump 5/
But expanded benefits are set to expire at the end of next month, and for technical reasons will actually vanish for most workers on 25 July. There was supposed to be OK bc of a rapidly recovering economy — but the failure on virus control means slow recovery instead 6/
In effect we’re set to impose devastating austerity on an economy not remotely ready to handle it — and to head that off we’d need major policy action in *less than a month*. With the White House still in denial, what are the odds of that happening? 7/
States may not be able to prevent passengers from flying into airports, which are under Federal jurisdiction, but they can absolutely prevent them from leaving the parking lots onto the adjacent public streets!
“Is there any scientific evidence that the virus is mutating into a less deadly form?”
As a molecular biologist and a medical school professor for 33 years, I’ve been following this story very closely. I’ve seen no evidence that the virus is becoming less deadly.
Joel:
I appreciate the comment. Sometimes having you say something on this topic goes much further than what I have read and consequently know.
Thank you Joel. I think the rumors circulating in the medical community are wishful thinking.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-nursing-homes-washington-seattle.html
March 10, 2020
Nursing Homes Becoming Islands of Isolation Amid ‘Shocking’ Mortality Rate
With the deaths of 18 residents in a single nursing home amid a coronavirus outbreak in Washington State, industry leaders recommend strict limits on visits at nursing homes across the country.
By Jack Healy, Matt Richtel and Mike Baker
[ This is an importantly revealing article showing just how unfortunately we have handled the coronavirus spread, nationally and by state. Where by March 10 “strict limits on visits at nursing homes across the country” had been recommended, in states such as New York hospital patients would actually be sent to nursing homes while the Governor of New York would insert lines in the state budget protecting nursing home owners from any liability. Hospital patients in the United Kingdom were also sent to nursing homes. ]
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/nyregion/nursing-homes-coronavirus-new-york.html
May 13, 2020
Buried in N.Y. Budget: Legal Shield for Nursing Homes Rife With Virus In New York, 5,300 nursing home residents have died of Covid-19. The nursing home lobby pressed for a provision that makes it hard for their families to sue.
By Amy Julia Harris, Kim Barker and Jesse McKinley
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/25/world/europe/coronavirus-uk-nursing-homes.html
May 25, 2020
On a Scottish Isle, Nursing Home Deaths Expose a Covid-19 Scandal At the Home Farm nursing home on the Isle of Skye, more than a quarter of its residents died and nearly all were infected with coronavirus. Families are furious.
By Benjamin Mueller
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
June 27, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 2,582,959)
Deaths ( 127,986)
UK
Cases ( 310,250)
Deaths ( 43,514)
Mexico
Cases ( 208,392)
Deaths ( 25,779)
Germany
Cases ( 194,539)
Deaths ( 9,026)
Canada
Cases ( 102,954)
Deaths ( 8,516)
China
Cases ( 83,483)
Deaths ( 4,634)
Another sad, sad, day:
June 27, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 2,593,285)
Deaths ( 128,132)
State boundaries limit the ability of states to scale. This is a Constitutional, and well known problem, a problem lasting about 2020-1776 = 244 years. It was a dominant cause of about three rebellions and causes numerous failures in federal programs.
The real question is why intellectuals for 255 years never noticed the state scale problem? Why, even to this day, we have dim bulbs promoting the ’50 little Hoovers’. I mean, the actual words are right there in the Law on the composition and separation of the two forms of government.
I think it reflects us being dim bulbs, nothing else. We are in some kind of denial about the restriction of our legislative structure. Almost a mass hysteria among intellectuals.
Keeping those cars from leaving the airport parking lots may run into a problem with the Privileges and Immunities clause of the constitution.
For months, the world perilously dismissed evidence of silent spreaders
NY Times – June 27
.
In late January, a doctor in Munich discovered Germany’s first coronavirus case, but the diagnosis made no sense. The patient reported only one possible contact with the infection: a business colleague visiting from China who had seemed healthy during her stay.
The visitor later told colleagues that she had not started feeling ill until after the flight back to China. Days later, she tested positive for the coronavirus.
Although it is now widely accepted that seemingly healthy people can spread the virus, scientists at the time believed that only people with symptoms could infect others.
“People who know much more about coronaviruses than I do were absolutely sure,” recalled Dr. Camilla Rothe, an infectious disease specialist at Munich University Hospital who diagnosed the businessman’s case.
The possibility of transmission from seemingly healthy people could strongly limit the ability of public awareness campaigns, airport screenings and stay-home-if-you’re sick policies to stop the virus.
Dr. Rothe and her colleagues were among the first to warn the world. But interviews with doctors and public health officials in more than a dozen countries showed that for two crucial months, Western health officials and political leaders played down or denied the risk of symptomless spreading. Leading health agencies provided contradictory and sometimes misleading advice.
It is impossible to calculate the human toll of that two-month delay, but models suggest that earlier action might have saved tens of thousands of lives. Though estimates vary, models using data from Hong Kong, Singapore and China suggest that 30 to 60 percent of spreading occurs when people have no symptoms.
“This was, I think, a very simple truth,” Dr. Rothe said. “I was surprised that it would cause such a storm. I can’t explain it.”
How the World Missed Covid-19’s Silent Spread
NY Times – Matt Apuzzo, Selam Gebrekidan
and David D. Kirkpatrick – June 27, 2020
Symptomless transmission makes the coronavirus far harder to fight. But health officials dismissed the risk for months, pushing misleading and contradictory claims in the face of mounting evidence. …
Is the coronavirus mutating?
Science News – May 26
Yes. But here’s why you don’t need to panic
… Over the past few months, a few research groups have claimed to identify new strains of the coronavirus, called SARS-CoV-2, that’s infecting people around the globe. That sounds scary. But not only is it sometimes difficult to determine whether a change amounts to a “new strain,” none of the reported changes to the virus have been shown to make it more dangerous.
This has led to great confusion for the general public. Each time such studies surface, fears arise, and virus experts rush to explain that changes in a virus’s genetic blueprint, or genome, happen all the time. The coronavirus is no exception.
“In fact, it really just means that it’s normal,” says Kari Debbink, a virologist at Bowie State University in Maryland. “We expect viruses to evolve. But not all of those mutations are meaningful.”
Here’s what it means to find mutations in the novel coronavirus, and what evidence is needed to actually raise a red flag. …
(More at the link.)
China has been publishing daily data on asymptomatic coronavirus carriers since April 1. Asymptomatic carriers are isolated for 14 days, with close contacts traced and tested and put under medical observation. Though seemingly without symptoms, a significant number of asymptomatic carriers have been found to have lung damage.
Routine testing of incoming travelers to China and general testing of residents in China detects asymptomatic carriers.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-03-28/COVID-19-Experts-warn-risk-posed-by-asymptomatic-carriers–PezwRI6cP6/index.html
March 28, 2020
COVID-19: Experts warn risk posed by asymptomatic carriers of the virus
Asymptomatic carriers of the novel coronavirus may pose a great transmission risk, experts warned as imported cases become the major challenge China faces as the number of confirmed COVID-19 patients exceeds 600,000 worldwide.
Asymptomatic carriers refer to those who have no symptoms such as fever, coughing or shortness of breath, but are tested positive for the virus. Such people have strong immune systems and don’t develop symptoms within 14 days after getting infected. But they may still spread the virus, according to Zhang Wenhong, head of Shanghai’s COVID-19 expert team.
“They can carry the virus for more than three weeks. And if they still carry the virus after the required quarantine period (two weeks in China) ends, they will pose great transmission risk,” said Zhang at a seminar in Shanghai on Friday….
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-06-28/Beijing-reports-14-new-COVID-19-cases-all-locally-transmitted-RGnoLMUJb2/index.html
June 18, 2020
Beijing reports 14 new COVID-19 cases, all locally transmitted
The Beijing Health Commission said on Sunday that 14 new locally transmitted COVID-19 cases were recorded on Saturday, raising total infections to 311 since June 11, when the first case of Beijing’s Xinfadi market cluster was detected.
The 14 cases were reported in two districts in Beijing: 10 in Fengtai, four in Daxing.
Beijing also registered three asymptomatic cases on Saturday, the health authority said.
[ https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ebj2xiHUMAEsjrQ?format=jpg&name=large ]
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-06-28/Chinese-mainland-reports-17-new-COVID-19-cases-14-in-Beijing-RGmjM1fBS0/index.html
June 28, 2020
Chinese mainland reports 17 new COVID-19 cases, no new deaths
Chinese health authorities on Sunday said that 17 new COVID-19 cases were reported on the Chinese mainland on Saturday, of which 14 were local transmissions and 3 were from overseas, with no additional deaths.
All the local transmissions were registered in Beijing, the National Health Commission said in its daily report.
The total number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland stands at 83,500 and the cumulative death toll at 4,634, with 106 asymptomatic patients under medical observation.
Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-06-28/Chinese-mainland-reports-17-new-COVID-19-cases-14-in-Beijing-RGmjM1fBS0/img/60abb55379824ff1bf209bb9ba4e1441/60abb55379824ff1bf209bb9ba4e1441.jpeg
Chinese mainland new imported cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-06-28/Chinese-mainland-reports-17-new-COVID-19-cases-14-in-Beijing-RGmjM1fBS0/img/bf332f4939574d36953c51fb47e78866/bf332f4939574d36953c51fb47e78866.jpeg
Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-06-28/Chinese-mainland-reports-17-new-COVID-19-cases-14-in-Beijing-RGmjM1fBS0/img/d7232562ad1946b2885f0c41b6c28367/d7232562ad1946b2885f0c41b6c28367.jpeg
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7152865/
April 12, 2020
CT imaging and clinical course of asymptomatic cases with COVID-19 pneumonia at admission in Wuhan, China
By Heng Meng, Rui Xiong, Ruyuan He, Weichen Lin, Bo Hao, Lin Zhang, Zilong Lu, Xiaokang Shen, Tao Fan, Wenyang Jiang, Wenbin Yang, Tao Li, Jun Chen, and Qing Geng
Summary
Purpose
Aimed to characterize the CT imaging and clinical course of asymptomatic cases with COVID-19 pneumonia.
Methods
Asymptomatic cases with COVID-19 pneumonia confirmed by SARS-COV-2 nucleic acid testing in Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University were retrospectively enrolled. The characteristics of CT imaging and clinical feature were collected and analyzed.
Results
58 asymptomatic cases with COVID-19 pneumonia admitted to our hospital between Jan 1, 2020 and Feb 23, 2020 were enrolled. All patients had history of exposure to SARS-CoV-2. On admission, patients had no symptoms and laboratory findings were normal. The predominant feature of CT findings in this cohort was ground glass opacity (GGO) (55, 94.8%) with peripheral (44, 75.9%) distribution, unilateral location (34, 58.6%) and mostly involving one or two lobes (38, 65.5%), often accompanied by characteristic signs. After short-term follow-up, 16 patients (27.6%) presented symptoms with lower lymphocyte count and higher CRP, mainly including fever, cough and fatigue. The evolution of lesions on CT imaging were observed in 10 patients (17.2%). The average days of hospitalization was19.80±10.82 days, and was significantly longer in progression patients (28.60±7.55 day).
Conclusion
CT imaging of asymptomatic cases with COVID-19 pneumonia has definite characteristics. Since asymptomatic infections as “covert transmitter”, and some patients can progress rapidly in the short term. It is essential to pay attention to the surveillance of asymptomatic patients with COVID-19. CT scan has great value in screening and detecting patients with COVID-19 pneumonia, especially in the highly suspicious, asymptomatic cases with negative nucleic acid testing.
Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
Why Obamacare is the only way to cover preexisting conditions 1/
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/10/opinion/obamacare-repeal.html
Three Legs Good, No Legs Bad
Obamacare versus the party of no ideas.
7:25 AM · Jun 28, 2020
Repealing the individual mandate hurt the ACA but didn’t kill it, because subsidies have kept many healthy people in the marketplace. But states that restored the mandate have seen premiums drop 2/
New Jersey’s Individual Market Premiums to be Among the Lowest in the Nation
New Jersey’s ongoing efforts to protect the Affordable Care Act (ACA) are starting to pay off: all middle class New Jerseyans who purchase their insurance in the individual market will pay far less than they otherwise would have next year and for the foreseeable future.
This logic has been completely clear since the beginning. Claims that there is a much better alternative are zombies: more than a decade of failure to deliver should have killed them, but they’re still eating Republican brains 3/