– by New Deal democrat
It is pretty clear now that in general those States (but not all) which left lockdowns the earliest and with the most lax continuing restrictions are suffering renewed outbreaks of the coronavirus, *possibly* in several cases verging on exponential spread.
For the US in total, the 7 day average of deaths has continued to decline, now at 803 per day vs. 2,201 on the April 18 peak:
Among the 40 States that consistently report hospitalizations, the number has still also declined:
But new cases averaged over the past 7 days have started to rise again, now at 21,527 vs. the low of 20,658 on May 28:
The increase cannot be put down to increased testing, as the 7 day average has leveled off in the past week:
Here is the breakdown of new infections by region:
Note, however, that the above graphs are not per capita. The below chart of the last 7 days, however, is:
It is crystal clear that the new hot spots are in those States which recklessly relaxed restrictions.
The Washington DC area, including MD and VA, has been a hot spot, but that is abating somewhat:
But the other States of the Confederacy (plus OK and KY), are clearly seeing an increase in cases:
NY, which had the worst outbreak by far, is down to 42 new daily infections per million:
At its peak, NY had 509 infections per million per day. NJ peaked at 409, RI at 369, LA at 340, and CT at 309. No other State has exceeded 300 to date.
I call the above to your attention, because among States that are seeing new outbreaks, here in particular are Arizona, as of yesterday at 167 per million:
And here is Florida:
And Texas:
All three have new infection rates of over 50 per million population, above NY’s current number.
There is no certainty that the sudden increases in these three (and other) States will continue, but in the aggregate there is no doubt that the virus is spreading again. It remains to be seen if outbreaks approaching the prevalence formerly in the NYC area will lead to renewed lockdowns in any of the affected States.
And then you hear this “Well, the lockdowns didn’t work” as justification for easing restrictions. Because Covid19 didn’t disappear with the restrictions. Ignorance with a heavy dose of entitlement, leavened with indifference.
Pretty unlikely that there will be renewed lockdowns unless the dead are literally piling up in the streets. I do think that people will socially distance more, avoid crowds and maybe even wear masks in the states that are heating up and contact tracing does have the potential to avoid any exponential spread if they can get on outbreaks soon enough. That is the real question—how many people are really infected and spreading the virus in the states that are noting an uptick?
What are the odds of skeptical (red) states spending the money to do contact tracing? Not good. They say it’s a hoax or just not a big deal.
Saw teh mayor of Phoenix last night commenting on people not wearing masks and the fact they have no ability to do contact tracing at all.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-06-13/COVID-19-threatens-entire-nervous-system-study-RhsRjlSiyY/index.html
June 13, 2020
COVID-19 threatens entire nervous system: study
A review of the neurological symptoms of COVID-19 patients in current scientific literature reveals the disease poses a threat to the entire nervous system, said a Northwestern Medicine study posted on the website of Northwestern University (NU) on Thursday.
About half of hospitalized patients have neurological manifestations of COVID-19, which include headaches, dizziness, decreased alertness, difficulty concentrating, disorders of smell and taste, seizures, strokes, weakness and muscle pain.
The disease may affect the entire nervous system, including the brain, spinal cord and nerves as well as the muscles. As the disease may affect multiple organs, such as lung, kidney and heart, the brain may also suffer from lack of oxygenation or from clotting disorders that may lead to ischemic or hemorrhagic strokes.
Moreover, the virus may cause direct infection of the brain and meninges. The reaction of the immune system to the infection may cause inflammation that can damage the brain and nerves.
“It’s important for the general public and physicians to be aware of this, because a SARS-COV-2 infection may present with neurologic symptoms initially, before any fever, cough or respiratory problems occur,” said lead author Igor Koralnik, Northwestern Medicine chief of neuro-infectious diseases and global neurology and a professor of neurology at NU Feinberg School of Medicine.
Koralnik and colleagues have formed a Neuro-COVID research team and started a retrospective analysis of all COVID-19 patients hospitalized at Northwestern Medicine to determine the frequency and type of neurological complications, as well as response to treatment.
The study was published * this week in Annals of Neurology.
Northwestern Medicine is the collaboration between Northwestern Memorial HealthCare and Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, which includes research, teaching and patient care.
* https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ana.25807
June 13, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 2,125,087)
Deaths ( 117,031)
UK
Cases ( 294,375)
Deaths ( 41,662)
Canada
Cases ( 98,368)
Deaths ( 8,105)
Sweden
Cases ( 50,931)
Deaths ( 4,874)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
June 13, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
Belgium ( 833)
UK ( 614)
Spain ( 580)
Italy ( 566)
Sweden ( 483)
France ( 450)
US ( 354)
Netherlands ( 354)
Ireland ( 346)
Switzerland ( 224)
Canada ( 215)
Luxembourg ( 176)
Portugal ( 148)
Germany ( 106)
Denmark ( 103)
Austria ( 75)
Finland ( 59)
Norway ( 45)
Greece ( 18)
Notice that the coronavirus death to confirmed cases ratio in the United Kingdom is an astonishingly severe 14.15%.
anne:
And Trump is really aggravated at being behind the UK which is why he is agitating for more people at his convention and for more protests to open up the states.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ana.25807
June 7, 2020
COVID ‐19: a global threat to the nervous system
By Igor. J Koralnik and Kenneth L. Tyler
Abstract
In less than 6 months, the severe acute respiratory syndrome‐coronavirus type 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) has spread worldwide infecting nearly 6 million people and killing over 350,000. Initially thought to be restricted to the respiratory system, we now understand that coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) also involves multiple other organs including the central and peripheral nervous system. The number of recognized neurologic manifestations of SARS‐CoV‐2 infection is rapidly accumulating. These may result from a variety of mechanisms including virus‐induced hyper‐inflammatory and hypercoagulable states, direct virus infection of the CNS, and post‐infectious immune mediated processes. Example of COVID‐19 CNS disease include encephalopathy, encephalitis, acute disseminated encephalomyelitis, meningitis, ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke, venous sinus thrombosis and endothelialitis. In the peripheral nervous system COVID‐19 is associated with dysfunction of smell and taste, muscle injury, the Guillain‐Barre syndrome and its variants. Due to its worldwide distribution and multifactorial pathogenic mechanisms, COVID‐19 poses a global threat to the entire nervous system. While our understanding of SARS‐CoV‐2 neuropathogenesis is still incomplete and our knowledge is evolving rapidly, we hope that this review will provide a useful framework and help neurologists in understanding the many neurologic facets of COVID‐19.
Thanks for this link Anne. I know two people in their forties who are suffering in this way.
When I-95 spikes again, it will start another new phase.