Infections in US States by population density
Infections in US States by population density
Since COVID-19 is a communicable disease, it should hardly be a surprise that the most densely populated States have the most cases per capita, and conversely the least densely States have the least cases. But since that basic point is lost in a lot of the analysis, let’s take a look.
Below are two charts consisting of the 12 most and least densely populated States, their respective population densities, and several measures of coronavirus infections.
The first column gives the rank of the State based on the total number of infections recorded since the start of the pandemic. The second column gives their rank per capita over time since the start of the pandemic. Finally, the third column gives their rank per capita based on infections just over the past week:
State | Population Density (Per Sq. Mile) |
Total # Infections (Rank) |
Infections Per capita (Rank) |
1 week Infections Per capita |
---|---|---|---|---|
NJ | 1208 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
RI | 1010 | 21 | 4 | 1 |
MA | 867 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
CT | 741 | 9 | 5 | 6 |
MD | 614 | 12 | 10 | 8 |
DE | 484 | 33 | 8 | 9 |
NY | 419 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
FL | 376 | 8 | 28 | 37 |
PA | 286 | 6 | 12 | 14 |
OH | 284 | 14 | 27 | 26 |
CA | 251 | 5 | 32 | 31 |
IL | 231 | 4 | 29 | 5 |
On a per capita basis, the data closely fits these States ranks in population density, with three noteworthy outliers: Florida, Ohio, and California. Florida has been rumored to have been massaging their data, but those issues do not pertain to the other two.
State | Population Density (Sq. Mile) |
Total # Infections (Rank) |
Infections Per capita (Rank) |
1 week Infections Per capita |
---|---|---|---|---|
OR | 42 | 39 | 47 | 45 |
UT | 36 | 35 | 30 | 29 |
KS | 36 | 31 | 22 | 11 |
NV | 26 | 34 | 26 | 35 |
NE | 25 | 30 | 13 | 4 |
ID | 20 | 41 | 41 | 44 |
NM | 17 | 40 | 23 | 19 |
SD | 11 | 40 | 16 | 23 |
ND | 11 | 43 | 31 | 25 |
MT | 7 | 49 | 50 | 50 |
WY | 6 | 47 | 43 | 41 |
AK | 1 | 50 | 48 | 48 |
Among the most sparsely populated States, only four are ranked in the top half of States in infections per capita since the outset of the pandemic (Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, and South Dakota). A fifth State joins those four among the States with the most infections in the past week (North Dakota). Nebraska in particular is a very poor outlier.
{By the way, the State ranked 49th in per capita number of infections, both over time and in the last week, is Hawaii, which is the 13th most densely populated State but has the obvious advantage of consisting of islands!}.
As I’ve already suggested, Alaska, Hawaii, Wyoming, Montana, and perhaps Idaho are States that could implement a regimen of testing, tracing, and isolating to maintain a containment of the virus. They are 4 of the 11 States that have had less than 10 deaths per day from the virus.
The main takeaway is simply how hard it is to prevent this virus from spreading in a densely populated area without a strictly adhered to program of quarantining and mask-wearing (as, e.g., performed in Taiwan and Hong Kong). Even New York, which has made the most dramatic progress, has only fallen to #7 in new infections per capita in the last week.
You might want to check this again in 2 or 3 weeks. By that point we should begin to see the human price for ignoring science. Not that old yeller and his minions throughout the country care much about such details. Unless old yeller himself comes down with it!
Kwark….my thought as well.
Let us get out the geospatial software and array areas by type and run the numbers. Compare urban to urban, semi-urban to semi-urban, rural to rural. Learn to fit so the comparisons are apt.
Let me also say that political leadership and public news-info-type organizations should help people to understand these data and comparisons so the propaganda aspects are spotlighted, and by that I mean that people in rural areas need to gain more empathy for the people who live in more dense areas while they bring their own influences to bear on their governing institutions when their data depart from what might be seen as the norm for their group, rural to rural, and so forth.
And maybe a lot more on educating the public on what the term, pandemic, means (it is everywhere) to be dealt with using the data for your area – and not for the purposes of wedging one group against another in some kind of culture war.
Please.
I have been trying to make some sense of the differences in the spread of Covid-19 around the United States. There just seem to be too many variables.
Population Density —– County ———- Population —– Cases — Deaths
1,889.7/sq mi ——— Jefferson, KY —– 751,485 ——– 1,224 —– 85
1,066.3/sq mi ——— Fayette, KY ——- 304,473 ——— 242 —— 9
985.2/sq mi ———– Kenton, KY ——- 161,915 ———- 247 —– 20
572.5/sq mi ———– Campbell, KY —— 91,268 ———- 85 ——- 9
479.7/sq mi ———– Boone, KY ——– 123,030 ——— 125 ——- 2
314.2/sq mi ———– Oldham, KY ——- 61,711 ———– 28 ——– 0
303.9/sq mi ———– Boyd, KY ———- 49,242 ———- 33 ——– 3
284.2/sq mi ———– Jessamine, KY —- 49,601 ———- 37 ——– 0
253.4/sq mi ———– Bullitt, KY ——— 76,093 ———- 51 ——– 2
244.4/sq mi ———– Mccracken, KY — 65,545 ———- 48 ——– 2
Population Density —– County ——— Population —– Cases —– Deaths
48,180.1/sq mi ——- New York, NY —– 1,618,398 —— 23,054 —– 1693
26,525.7/sq mi ——- Kings, NY ———- 2,570,801 —– 47,579 —— 4262
24,593.2/sq mi ——- Bronx, NY ———- 1,413,566 —– 39,476 —– 2848
12,797.5/sq mi ——- Queens, NY ——— 2,280,602 —- 54,448 —– 4324
4,609.6/sq mi ——– Richmond, NY ——- 471,522 —– 12,317 ——– 609
2,979.9/sq mi ——— Nassau, NY ——– 1,350,601 —– 37,152 —— 1818
1,924.7/sq mi ——– Westchester, NY —- 962,319 —– 30,240 —— 1116
1,596.2/sq mi ——– Rockland, NY ——– 318,186 —– 12,144 ——- 536
750.5/sq mi ———- Erie, NY ————— 920,694 ——- 3,891 ——- 292
741.1/sq mi ———- Schenectady, NY — 155,178 ——– 537 ——– 25
Westchester county NY with a population density of 1,924.7 per square mile (psm) has 30,240 cases while Jefferson county KY with a population density of 1,889.7 has only 1,224. In that case we can assume that Westchester county is just too close to the New York City counties.
But how do we explain Jefferson county KY with a population density of 1,889.7 per square mile (psm). And Erie county NY with a population density of 750.5 psm?
Erie county NY has over 3 times the number of cases and deaths as Jefferson county KY
Erie county NY has over 15 times the number cases as Kenton county KY with a population density of 985.2 psm
How do we explain Kenton county KY with a population density of 985.2 psm has only 247 cases while Schenectady county NY with a population density of 741.1 psm has 537 cases.
JimH, I think the reason why trace and contact works is shown in these data and your questions.
The spread is by human contact, follow the humans who have it.
As we all know. In spite of the fact that I referred to it as an everywhere pandemic above, it isn’t, yet. As we all know, we need daily testing randomized and with targeted over sampling perhaps in the millions daily, filled by contact-tracing.
Hopefully the patterns become recognizable allowing resources to become more and more and more effective and efficient so we strangle this virus.
But isn’t this just common sense.
I’ve seen reports that most transmissions occur within the family, e.g. in China, in China Town here, … In Run’s Navajo populations? In close, cramped quarters, like those of most of the world’s poor, there’s simply no way to avoid contagion.
JF,
You wrote: “JimH, I think the reason why trace and contact works is shown in these data and your questions.”
Nationwide, Covid-19 spread so quickly that testing and tracing contacts was impossible within a very short time. How do you train and supply an army of protected contact tracers in two weeks? Would they be exempted from social distancing and the lockdown?
Date ——– KY cases ————– NY state cases
1 March——– 0 ———————— 1
7 March ——- 1 ———————— 76
15 March ——20 ——————— 970
1 April ——— 670 ——————– 83,712
8 May ——— 6,288 —————– 330,407
Some combination of other factors was at work.
Covid-19 came about a week later to Kentucky and spread more slowly. As you can see above, on 15 March Kentucky only had 20 cases and Kentucky shut down on 16 March.
I have been reading that the Covid-19 variant from Europe was more lethal than the variant which came directly from China. Perhaps it also spread more quickly.
Back in the mid 1970s I read a book titled “Fate is the Hunter” by Ernest K Gann. It was about a time in the 1930s and 1940s when there was much less instrumentation in the aircraft, very poor weather forecasting, and aircraft which could be devilishly difficult to fly in bad weather. About the pilots who survived on their acquired skills when fate came calling, and those pilots who had found themselves in unforeseeable and irrecoverable conditions.
I interpreted it as a warning to think ahead, because when fate strikes, all of your skills may not be enough.
That there are events which test everything you know and all of your capabilities. Covid-19 fits that description.
I believe that the state and federal governments have done all that they could reasonably do during this crisis.
1. But the national news mediah has been worthless. They did not inform, they were kibitzers.
2. Each of them contributed to the cacophony of useless information. When your house is on fire, you do not agonize over whether you should have had a better smoke detector! There is NO cure for Covid-19! Testing is a luxury when all you can do is treat the symptoms of the flood of your latest patients. Especially when contact tracing is impractical because you do not even have enough PPE for hospital nurses and doctors.
3. And their daily dose of unwarranted criticism was disgraceful. As an example, no one in their right mind can believe that the US government should have stocked large warehouses of ventilators and PPE in every city with a population over 50,000! In a pandemic like Covid-19 there were always going to be local shortages and sometimes national ones!!! If you must blame, then blame globalization and the lack of local production!
4. With the lockdown ending, there will be growing increases in Covid-19 and the kibitzers will be predicting doom and gloom. Gushing with silly questions and even sillier answers.
How is it possible to get a coherent message to the public with the national news media’s constant kibitzing?
Over-the-air broadcasters have certain obligations which go with their use of the limited RF spectrum. Lately they are not meeting their obligations!
Propagandist.
It spread so fast, oh no, too late, too hard too expensive to do the testing and tracking regimes.
And you know, like those pioneer pilots, you too can just be brave too, aren’t you a pioneer too.
And look at how I picked my stat columns. Too complex to invite any good questions about how to look at the data.
And let me scare you about those New York viruses, much more lethal.
But good thing we in Kentucky are hardy even should people from NY travel and stop here.
And look at the media, can’t trust anything there, they are the problem, even use foreign words like ‘kibitzing’ while failing on obligations.
The same type of words and silly questions the public health predictors will spread cause problems.
Sigh.
This is propaganda stuff from JimH. Read with caution.
Hi JF:
I agree. If I look at those numbers, it spread faster in KY than in NY. He has no clue as to what is needed to get ahead of COVID 19.
In the open thread I shared this Twitter thread about the language being used regarding responses to the pandemic: https://twitter.com/Natascha_Strobl/status/1247606764914302979
As they say read the whole thing. The propaganda is polarizing because it’s closely aligned with the language of fascism.
On Friday 9 May 2020 a federal judge issued a temporary restraining order against Kentucky Governor Beshear’s order banning in person church services.
“Why can someone safely walk down a grocery store aisle and not a pew?” Apparently the Governor’s attorney could not persuade the judge that a shopping trip was not the same as a communal gathering.
“Defendants are enjoined from enforcing the prohibition on mass gatherings with respect to any in-person religious service which adheres to applicable social distancing and hygiene guidelines,” U.S. District Judge Greg Van Tatenhove ruled Friday evening.“
Two federal judges had previously ruled that the Governor’s order was constitutional. But the 6th US Circuit Court of Appeals had sent the case back to one of them.
Allowing Kentucky citizens to buy food and water apparently opened the doors of the federal courthouses!
A declared national emergency and a declared state emergency were not enough to restrain the federal judiciary!
I repeat, there is no cure for Covid-19.
Which US Supreme Court judge said that the US Constitution was not a suicide pact?
See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Constitution_is_not_a_suicide_pact
Run75441,
In my comment yesterday at 2:28PM above I included 2 tables showing cities with different population densities and the number of Covid-19 cases from 8 May 2020. The top table was for cities in Kentucky and the bottom one was for cases in New York. (The original article was about population densities vs Covid-19 spread.)
I was pointing out the difficulty of comparing population densities vs Covid-19 spreading by using past data and comparing the number of Covid-19 cases in cities with similar population densities in Kentucky and New York. Other factors had to be involved.
In my comment yesterday at 8:12PM above I was responding to JF’s comment about testing and contact tracing. I included a table showing the number Covid-19 cases for Kentucky (KY) and New York (NY) on dates from 1 March to 8 May.
I assumed that any reader would have been able to see that Covid-19 spread much slower in Kentucky (KY) than in New York (NY). But that neither had been able to control Covid-19 with testing and contact tracing.
I also pointed out the difficulty in doing contact tracing without adequate personal protective equipment (PPE). There was and continues to be a shortage of PPE in this country. And there was not enough time to train people to do contact tracing before the full blown crisis was upon us.
I don’t understand the difference between Kentucky and New York. I have not made any claim of superiority
In my comment at 10:17PM above I was expressing my disgust with the national news media.
The result of the national news media’s kibitzing has been to lead Americans to believe that the Covid-19 pandemic was only a challenge to an ill prepared health care system. That was and remains nonsense!
Governments and health care systems around the world have found Covid-19 to be unstoppable. The best that could be done was to treat the patient’s symptoms and try to keep them alive if possible. And governments have only been able to resort to quarantines.
There is no cure for Covid-19 and its extremely rapid spread has added to the direness of the situation.
On 1 March New York had 1 case and on 1 May it had 308,314 cases. Two (2) months! There has not been anything like this during my lifetime!
From: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_New_York_(state)
Human beings want to believe that there is ALWAYS an answer to any illness or life threatening event. That sort of thinking should have been discouraged.
JF still wants to believe. I don’t blame him. The Center for Disease Control can not even promise that this will be over at the end of the normal flu season.
Facts matter.