A simple plan to produce billions of N95 masks
We desperately need to increase our capacity to test for COVID-19, to trace contacts, and to produce masks and other forms of personal protective equipment. This will allow us to keep the virus under control and to cautiously re-start economic activity as we await development of a vaccine. Unfortunately, President Trump has made it clear that he will not lead a mobilization against the virus. His goal is simply to avoid blame for failures.
Congress cannot force the president to act, and it certainly cannot force him to be competent or honest. Instead, Congress needs to go around the president. This is not easy to do, but in the case of personal protective gear there is a simple law Congress can pass to greatly increase supplies. To illustrate, here is how Congress can increase production of N95 masks:
- Take a price list for N95 masks from 3M or Honeywell or another major producer of masks from December 2019
- Decide which N95 models are most useful for managing the epidemic
- Quadruple the prices of these models
- Make a binding commitment to purchase all N95 masks produced between now and the end of 2020 at these prices
This simple law would give manufacturers a strong incentive to gear up production – to run additional shifts, to train new workers, to install new production equipment, etc. The incentives it creates would filter through the entire web of suppliers that contribute to mask production. It requires no action from the executive branch of government except cutting checks. It is possible that too many masks will be produced, but any unneeded masks could be used to replenish the national stockpile, sent to low income countries, or simply mailed to every American household to use during flu season.
Congress can take direct action to increase mask production because N95 masks are well-defined products. The same approach would work other forms of personal protective gear. It would be more difficult to contract in this manner for increased test production, since there are many tests and clear standards have not been set (for time to get a result, false positive and negative rates, etc.). In addition, we want to encourage the introduction of new technologies. All this would require more complicated legislation. But even in the case of tests Congress could jury rig something imperfect.
In the face of a disastrously incompetent and irresponsible president, Congress must step into the breach.
Of course, then the reality of supply chains kicks in and you don’t get a billions of masks, becuase 3M and others do not make the entire product.
Currently we would love to be producing hundreds of *product* and fifty thousand of *product* each month, but it turns out you can’t buy enough parts to make the first one, and our assembly systems don’t have capacity to get out that many of the second one.
Numbers:
Medicare for all costs $30 trillion, … over 10 years, well maybe more like $1.5 trillion per year, but that’s still too much. Is it? After all, there are some 340 million us.
Renowned Econ Prof from Stanford’s Hoover Inst. says there’s no way the nation can produce enough masks for the 340 million of us. Why not? If the were only 50 million of us, could we produce enough masks?
Ken:
In 2018, the US spent $3.6 trillion. U.S. Health Care Costs Skyrocketed to $3.65 Trillion in 2018 Perhaps, there is a way to mitigate budget costs by canceling the 2018 cost?
Run
I haven’t the numbers at hand, but:
The $30 trillion over 10 is based on current/(also your numbers?) costs. $1.5 trillion/yr years comes from costs more in line with those for countries w/ universal care which are, it happens, much in line with a system based on what current Medicare costs.
ken:
My point? $30 trillion is cheap and is doable. If we do nothing, it will be more than $30 trillion at 10 years. I am going to give you some links on single payer. I just have to dig them out for you.
Bill
Ken:
If nothing in the method of providing healthcare and paying for it changes, the cost for healthcare over 10 years will be greater than $30 trillion. 30% of Medicare is waste. It is not the gold standard we are after although it is a start.
Did you see this?
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/in-the-early-days-of-the-pandemic-the-us-government-turned-down-an-offer-to-manufacture-millions-of-n95-masks-in-america/ar-BB13Qqsv?ocid=spartanntp
Apparently, step one is to find out who already has the capability to make masks and talk to them.
Arne: agree very outrageous failure. Two points. First, the Trump administration will not actively manage this process, so Congress needs to go around them. Second, a million masks a week is a tiny drop in the bucket, we need to produce many tens of millions of masks a day. One way to do this is to announce willingness to pay and commit to take all comers. Not perfect, but arguably our best option.
well, so far the comments are all about masks (saving Mediare), but in passing the author mentions testing.
I am all for masks. I am not all for testing. I think I understand the logic behind testing and contact tracing,,, and i am all for those to the extent they can be done volutairily (i also understand about selection bias, but this is not a “scientific” study, but an emergency response which can be managed without statistical purity).
i draw the line at involuntary testing. In my primitive ignorance i still believe in “my body, my choice,” moreover, the testing will lead to involuntary not-at-home quarantine.. in other words, prison. i think that is a step down a very slippery slope. as for involuntary contact tracing.. that is another slippery slope … kind of like forcing a women to tell all about her sex life or face imprisonment for obstructing justice…. which is what we put up with on the way to impeaching clinton (for not telling about his sex life).
i also think that while testing and contact tracing could slow the growth of the epidemic, in the end it won’t end it until we reach the famous herd immunity.. i.e. when enough of us have been infected, have developed immunity, that the virus has a low probability of finding new hosts.
i could be wrong about any of this, but arm waving won’t convince me, and I will be pretty stubborn about my ideas about limited government (which have very little to do with taxes or speed limits).
coberly:
You do not want to be tested and you wish to come within reasonable proximity to others?
Stop waiting on government to take care of you.