It is irresponsible to spread panic in such cases.
From what I see the spread of the virus is slightly slowing in the USA starting from March 21.
It is still exponential but with lower base. So Trump assertion that in the second half of April the epidemic might subside is not completely out of touch with reality.
Also effects from the measures which were put in place since March 11 only now start coming into play.
I notices more and more people are wearing masks in public places.
In some countries (Czech Republic is one example) appearance without a mask in public places now is a punishable offence.
In Russia breaking mandatory 14 day quarantine for those who arrives from abroad is a punishable offence.
Human societies are highly adaptable. Also losses so far did not lead to increased morality. Actually it is the first pandemic in history in which average weekly morality in certain countries either stayed the same or dropped. GB in February is one example.
To provide you a proper perspective, the number of victims from COVID-19 for three month of the epidemic existence is slightly less than the number of births in three hours
The UNICEF estimates that an average of 353,000 babies are born each day around the world.
The only groups who should panic are medical providers and government officials. They all have with the exception of Trump and if his change in tone at last night’s rally er presser is any indication, he will panic in the next week. Because Tillison was right that he is a f***ing moron, he is only now realizing that he can not B.S. his way out of this one and his whining and denying responsibility is only getting more grating. Personally I think everyone except Trump and his enablers has been doing a good job of handling their panic. Andrew Cuomo has been a star in conveying sheer terror at what is coming in calm measured tones while attempting to rally the community. It is only sensible to have a means of storing the excess corpses–the mobile morgue did not have signs on it to “bring out your dead”. You would prefer photos of mass graves?
Good articles, thank you. Have you read New Deal Democrat as he has been tracking the trajectory almost since it began. Robert Waldman is in Rome (Prof) and has been telling us about Italy’s contagion. To the first article, have you participated in the Asch Conformity Experiment? I did after the Corp, the confrontation made me more obstinate in my yeas and nays enough so one participant almost sided with me (as reported by her). I believe in what I see and this is not fake, exaggerated, or political news. It is real and we are in our home mostly except for a walk once and a while. I do have to venture out very early Monday morning (7AM store is open) to buy some food. We are in a semi-rural area and COVID has been slow to hit us.
You might be better off in your posts, if you learn separate two different issues:
1. Trump incompetence and the desirability of his removal
2. Problems of reacting to the COVID-19 pandemic endemic in the neoliberal society with its deification “free market” and the rule of financial oligarchy. They bailed themselves out the second time.
Mixing them cloud your judgment. Trump is only a part of our problems. And not the most important one. The most important problem is the rule of financial oligarchy. Rephrasing Bush I “If the American people ever find out what financial oligarchy have done to the country, they would chase then down the street and lynch”…
BTW Trump is trying to navigate his way out of this difficult situation the best he can. The fact that he partially abandoned neoliberal orthodoxy with its deification of free markets is a positive sign (The decision to use the Defense Production Act ) Remember “Please Do Not Shoot the Pianist. He Is Doing His Best” (attributed to Oscar Wilde)
Of course, he could have done more, but remember the Congress Critters, “It could probably be shown by facts and figures that there is no distinctly native American criminal class except Congress.” Take for example Senator Burr.
Yes I have been reading most of the posts on AB concerning COVD-19.
I have heard of the Asch Conformity Experiment but did not participate.
There is a quote I read in a book: “The price of being a sheep is boredom. The price of being a wolf is loneliness. Choose one or the other with great care”.
Up until age 50 I was probably 60% wolf and 40% sheep. My high intellect, some neuro-atypical traits, high sensitivity, etc. mostly knew better (wolf – non conforming) but for various childhood reasons there were times I went along (sheep – conforming) with the group for fear of being ridiculed or thought “peculiar”.
Post age 50 I am mostly wolf or more precisely a fully human wolf if that makes any sense. Or a wolf with human qualities i.e. empathy, compassion, etc.
FWIW I tend to believe the Rationalists try to act like they are completely rational all the time. My life experience has told me that no human is completely rational most of the time. For me it is to “listen” to my intuitions, emotions, feelings, etc. and integrate it into my internal ecology but try to make sure my true self/ wolf is not being taken over by an irrational self. But alas I am aware that like all humans I am prone to various biases, heuristics, etc. But for me “the group”/conformity does not play a role in my biases/beliefs and it just is being an imperfect human.
If you would like to post something; by all means, I would be happy to do so for you. Guest writers are welcome. That is, if you feel the urge. No pressure.
Look, I was the geeky kid through grade school. Not a known genius favored by teachers and vastly underrated. You know, the one who was always picked last for a team. In high school I started to play basketball and baseball, was pretty good at it, and still was not good enough. I was a “thunker” or someone (6 feet tall) who could get over the rim but not high enough to drop the ball in and consequently hit the rim with the ball making a loud “thunk” noise. After graduating from an all boys high school in Chicago, I went into the Marines one year later. I worked the one year with my dad on scaffolds hanging off of buildings such as the Wrigley, Union Carbide, Tribune Tower, etc. From the military experience, I learned I was not quite the geek I thought I was and neither did those who knew me either. I always read and my brothers inherited my books while I was overseas.
I left a sergeant in 3 years, was asked to stay, and had other plans which included a beautiful young woman in NYC. If I stayed, I would not have married her. Finished up in 1974. I was happy with the course I took.
When you are a level above in intelligence than the people around you, you may say things which people may not understand, and are looked at strangely. I did not take many prisoners then and (course change) I used to chase prisoners to the brig and court martials the last year in which I hated. I was disliked for being too rational. Then I found I could have fun by being irrational which confused them. I learned to hold back on commentary, listen, and adjust my comments so as to lead them in a circle arriving back at the original statement to which they would have to finally agree with me. I would smile and they (my bosses) would be frustrated.
My youngest son is much like I was in my thirties and extremely intelligent and maybe more so. He was caught up in something and I ended up plying him with books authored by Hobbs, Locke, Thoreau, Pound, etc. I bought enough books to keep his mind occupied that B&N quit the argument about the return of some books I sent to myself by accident. I would say he is Masters level in knowledge.
Today, I listen and think. That is a different discussion.
Posting pictures from NJ, eh, Dan?
> Posting pictures from NJ, eh, Dan?
It is irresponsible to spread panic in such cases.
From what I see the spread of the virus is slightly slowing in the USA starting from March 21.
It is still exponential but with lower base. So Trump assertion that in the second half of April the epidemic might subside is not completely out of touch with reality.
Also effects from the measures which were put in place since March 11 only now start coming into play.
I notices more and more people are wearing masks in public places.
In some countries (Czech Republic is one example) appearance without a mask in public places now is a punishable offence.
In Russia breaking mandatory 14 day quarantine for those who arrives from abroad is a punishable offence.
Human societies are highly adaptable. Also losses so far did not lead to increased morality. Actually it is the first pandemic in history in which average weekly morality in certain countries either stayed the same or dropped. GB in February is one example.
To provide you a proper perspective, the number of victims from COVID-19 for three month of the epidemic existence is slightly less than the number of births in three hours
The UNICEF estimates that an average of 353,000 babies are born each day around the world.
The only groups who should panic are medical providers and government officials. They all have with the exception of Trump and if his change in tone at last night’s rally er presser is any indication, he will panic in the next week. Because Tillison was right that he is a f***ing moron, he is only now realizing that he can not B.S. his way out of this one and his whining and denying responsibility is only getting more grating. Personally I think everyone except Trump and his enablers has been doing a good job of handling their panic. Andrew Cuomo has been a star in conveying sheer terror at what is coming in calm measured tones while attempting to rally the community. It is only sensible to have a means of storing the excess corpses–the mobile morgue did not have signs on it to “bring out your dead”. You would prefer photos of mass graves?
Thank you
Likbez:
When the Rationalists, i.e. the one group least likely to panic, are worried then this is serious.
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5okDRahtDewnWfFmz/seeing-the-smoke
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wFTRgeaq5wceEfb2X/lesswrong-coronavirus-agenda
Jerry:
Good articles, thank you. Have you read New Deal Democrat as he has been tracking the trajectory almost since it began. Robert Waldman is in Rome (Prof) and has been telling us about Italy’s contagion. To the first article, have you participated in the Asch Conformity Experiment? I did after the Corp, the confrontation made me more obstinate in my yeas and nays enough so one participant almost sided with me (as reported by her). I believe in what I see and this is not fake, exaggerated, or political news. It is real and we are in our home mostly except for a walk once and a while. I do have to venture out very early Monday morning (7AM store is open) to buy some food. We are in a semi-rural area and COVID has been slow to hit us.
Terry,
You might be better off in your posts, if you learn separate two different issues:
1. Trump incompetence and the desirability of his removal
2. Problems of reacting to the COVID-19 pandemic endemic in the neoliberal society with its deification “free market” and the rule of financial oligarchy. They bailed themselves out the second time.
Mixing them cloud your judgment. Trump is only a part of our problems. And not the most important one. The most important problem is the rule of financial oligarchy. Rephrasing Bush I “If the American people ever find out what financial oligarchy have done to the country, they would chase then down the street and lynch”…
BTW Trump is trying to navigate his way out of this difficult situation the best he can. The fact that he partially abandoned neoliberal orthodoxy with its deification of free markets is a positive sign (The decision to use the Defense Production Act ) Remember “Please Do Not Shoot the Pianist. He Is Doing His Best” (attributed to Oscar Wilde)
Of course, he could have done more, but remember the Congress Critters, “It could probably be shown by facts and figures that there is no distinctly native American criminal class except Congress.” Take for example Senator Burr.
Run,
Yes I have been reading most of the posts on AB concerning COVD-19.
I have heard of the Asch Conformity Experiment but did not participate.
There is a quote I read in a book: “The price of being a sheep is boredom. The price of being a wolf is loneliness. Choose one or the other with great care”.
Up until age 50 I was probably 60% wolf and 40% sheep. My high intellect, some neuro-atypical traits, high sensitivity, etc. mostly knew better (wolf – non conforming) but for various childhood reasons there were times I went along (sheep – conforming) with the group for fear of being ridiculed or thought “peculiar”.
Post age 50 I am mostly wolf or more precisely a fully human wolf if that makes any sense. Or a wolf with human qualities i.e. empathy, compassion, etc.
FWIW I tend to believe the Rationalists try to act like they are completely rational all the time. My life experience has told me that no human is completely rational most of the time. For me it is to “listen” to my intuitions, emotions, feelings, etc. and integrate it into my internal ecology but try to make sure my true self/ wolf is not being taken over by an irrational self. But alas I am aware that like all humans I am prone to various biases, heuristics, etc. But for me “the group”/conformity does not play a role in my biases/beliefs and it just is being an imperfect human.
Jerry:
If you would like to post something; by all means, I would be happy to do so for you. Guest writers are welcome. That is, if you feel the urge. No pressure.
Look, I was the geeky kid through grade school. Not a known genius favored by teachers and vastly underrated. You know, the one who was always picked last for a team. In high school I started to play basketball and baseball, was pretty good at it, and still was not good enough. I was a “thunker” or someone (6 feet tall) who could get over the rim but not high enough to drop the ball in and consequently hit the rim with the ball making a loud “thunk” noise. After graduating from an all boys high school in Chicago, I went into the Marines one year later. I worked the one year with my dad on scaffolds hanging off of buildings such as the Wrigley, Union Carbide, Tribune Tower, etc. From the military experience, I learned I was not quite the geek I thought I was and neither did those who knew me either. I always read and my brothers inherited my books while I was overseas.
I left a sergeant in 3 years, was asked to stay, and had other plans which included a beautiful young woman in NYC. If I stayed, I would not have married her. Finished up in 1974. I was happy with the course I took.
When you are a level above in intelligence than the people around you, you may say things which people may not understand, and are looked at strangely. I did not take many prisoners then and (course change) I used to chase prisoners to the brig and court martials the last year in which I hated. I was disliked for being too rational. Then I found I could have fun by being irrational which confused them. I learned to hold back on commentary, listen, and adjust my comments so as to lead them in a circle arriving back at the original statement to which they would have to finally agree with me. I would smile and they (my bosses) would be frustrated.
My youngest son is much like I was in my thirties and extremely intelligent and maybe more so. He was caught up in something and I ended up plying him with books authored by Hobbs, Locke, Thoreau, Pound, etc. I bought enough books to keep his mind occupied that B&N quit the argument about the return of some books I sent to myself by accident. I would say he is Masters level in knowledge.
Today, I listen and think. That is a different discussion.